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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $36.28EOD only
Max Pain
$37.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.67
1.8% from close
Price Gap
+0.72
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
0.89
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
FXI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
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Outlook

Bearish bias from negative dealer gamma (-$132M GEX), bearish flow, and spot below $37 max pain. Negative gamma amplifies downside. Support at $36 and $35.32. VIX 18.43 moderate.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow alignment +0.5 VIX 18 = 7.5
Supports: Negative gamma, bearish flow, spot < $37, support at $35.32
Conflicts: Positive dealer delta (+139M shares) may slow, support at $36
📉GEX -$132M amplifies downside
⚠️Max pain $37, spot below, pin risk
ℹ️VIX 18.43 normal, not extreme

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal: IV in line with historical, VIX 18.43
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending: GEX -$132M, flip ~$32 far below, enabling trend
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish: net premium flow bearish, elevated P/C
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below: spot below max pain $37, pinned toward $35-36
Thesis duration: Multi-week — No event catalyst; negative gamma and bearish flow support multi-week range

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$35.32$37.09
Target low $35.32
Next 2 weeks
$34.97$37.44
Range $34.97-$37.44, downside bias

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $37 (2026-05-15); $37 (2026-05-22); $36 (2026-05-29)
EM guardrails: 1w $35.32/$37.09
Support: $36.00 · $35.00 · $34.97
Resistance: $37.00 · $37.44 · $38.00
Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 126,309 (11.6% below spot)
Structural: Support $36/$35/$34.97; resistance $37/$37.44/$38; gamma flip ~$32; max pain $37 (May 15,22), $36 (May 29); EM 1w $35.32/$37.09

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-132.0M

DEX: +139.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 126,309 (11.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$132M (short gamma), flip ~$32; DEX +139M shares (long delta) offsets some hedging but negative gamma dominates

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV unknown; VIX 18.43 implies moderate environment

Term structure: Likely contango; no event kinks

Skew: Put skew elevated; put spread may benefit

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$6.4M; put/call volume ratio 1.77 (bearish); OI ratio 0.84 (neutral).

Directional prints: 21.3 put 36 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 3.3x; likely bearish positioning.

Unusual: 38.1 put 35 OTM 2026-05-22 — Extreme vol/OI 22.3x; high IV 38.1%; unusual bearish flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Upside if spot reclaims $37 (max pain) due to positive dealer delta
!China policy event risk could reverse flow
!Gamma squeeze if short gamma triggers rapid buying

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-05-29 $36.00/$35.50 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk downside play aligning with bearish bias and negative dealer gamma.
Upside if spot reclaims $37; China policy risk. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.; short_put: Wide spread (87%).
Long putModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-05 $36.00 put
Why now: Long put offers convex downside profit with limited risk.
Time decay if spot stays flat; upside risk from policy events.

Top Plays

#1
Long put on FXI
Buy 2026-06-05 $36.00 put
Convex downside from current level below max pain.
Why this play: Best aligns with bearish bias and negative dealer gamma.
Debit: $0.63-$0.77
Max loss: $0.77
BE: $35.23
Mgmt: Monitor gamma; exit if spot reclaims $37.
Traders seeking direct bearish exposure.
#2
Bear put spread on FXI
Buy 2026-05-29 $36.00/$35.50 put spread
Limited downside capture between $36 and $35.50.
Why this play: Defined risk alternative; cheaper than long put.
Debit: $0.08-$0.09
Max loss: $0.09
BE: $35.91
Mgmt: Hold to expiry or if spot reaches $35.50. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.; short_put: Wide spread (87%).
Risk-averse traders wanting defined max loss.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot breaks below $36 support with volume → THEN buy 2026-06-05 $36 put for $0.63-$0.77
IFIF spot drops to $35.32 (1w EM) or below → THEN buy 2026-05-29 $36/$35.50 put spread for $0.08-$0.09
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot reclaims $37 (max pain) → THEN close all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish due to negative dealer gamma (-$132M) and spot below $37 max pain. Key support $36, $35, $34.97. Invalidation at $37. Prefer long put for convexity or bear put spread for defined risk.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.