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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $37.23EOD only

Max Pain

$36.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.44

1.2% from close

Price Gap

-1.23

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.06

Balanced positioning

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 16, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Primary thesis: mild pin-to-max-pain bias — expect a grind lower into the $36/$35 max-pain band over the next few expiries unless dealer long-gamma holds above the ~37 flip, which would instead allow a capped drift toward ~39; overall neutral-to-slightly bearish near-term transitioning to range-bound multi-week.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Confidence driven by concentrated put OI and dealer long-gamma (pinning) offset by positive dealer exposure that can cap downside; downside risk rises if gamma flip breaches.

Supports: Put-heavy OI, dealer long-gamma, IV normal vs VIX
Conflicts: Positive dealer gamma can cap downside and enable limited upside; spot sits ~4.4% above MP

📌Max-pain $36/$35 is primary pull into expiries — key driver short-term

⚖️Dealer +$84M GEX pins spot until ~37 gamma flip is breached

🔼If spot holds above ~37, upside to ~39 is possible but capped

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV normal vs VIX (~17.5) — volatility not elevated, favors directional/gamma-driven moves over vol buying.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime: concentrated put OI near $36 plus dealer net long-gamma; gamma flip ~37 is the pivotal level for dealer hedging behavior.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow overall; premium not decisively skewed, but put accumulation dominates OI structure.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~4.4% above MP — creates asymmetric pull toward MP; holding above flip tempers pull.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — OI concentration and dealer positioning span multiple expiries, supporting sustained pinning unless gamma dynamics change.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$36.69$38.51

Pinning into max-pain; gamma flip ~37 is immediate pivot — downside accelerates if breached

Next 2 weeks

$36.18$39.02

Multi-week pin expected into $36/$35; upside to ~$39 if flip holds and dealer remains long-gamma

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $36 (2026-04-17); $36 (2026-04-24); $35 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails: 1w $36.69/$38.51

Support: $37.00 · $36.18 · $36.00

Resistance: $39.02 · $40.00

Gamma flip: ~$37.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 179,263 (1.6% below spot)

Structural: Support: 37.0 / 36.18 / 36.0. Resistance: 39.02 / 40.0. Gamma flip ~37. Max-pain: $36/$35.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+84.4M

DEX: +139.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$37 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 179,263 (1.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer net +$84.4M GEX with long-gamma exposure and +139.9M dex shares; this creates pinning pressure until the ~37 flip is breached, after which hedging could accelerate moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is roughly in line with VIX (~17.5) — not rich, so prefer directional/gamma-aware trades over pure vol buys.

Term structure: Flat-to-slightly-steep near-term; expiries cluster around monthly max-pain dates, creating event kinks into 4/24 and 5/1.

Skew: Put-heavy OI near $36 yields skew and a pinning edge; actionable setups: sell puts into pin region with strict risk or buy calls on a confirmed break above 39.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$3.12M; C/P vol ~0.79 and OI ~0.96 — call‑weighted by notional, so large call blocks drive positive premium despite some put activity.

Directional prints: 26.8 call 40 OTM 2026-07-17 — Very large buy-side call flow (20,154 vol vs 12,186 OI); strong directional call exposure. 25.7 call 39 OTM 2026-07-17 — High turnover (2,616 vol, vol/oi 4.6) — aggressive shorter-term call accumulation. 24.4 put 37 OTM 2026-05-15 — Massive put volume (12,534) suggests hedging or downside positioning; offsets some call skew.

Unusual: 24.9 call 40 OTM 2026-06-30 — Large mid-dated call block (2,528 vol) reinforcing multi-month call demand. 22.6 put 38 ITM 2026-11-20 — Long-dated put interest (1,766 vol) — tail protection or directional bearish exposure.

Risks & Catalysts

!Breaching gamma flip (~37) triggers dealer hedging and downside acceleration

!Large premium flow or index shock that lifts VIX and widens IV

!Unexpected macro or China news impacting constituents

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-01 $34.50/$25.00 put wing and $38.00/$39.50 call wing Why now: Neutral-to-slightly bearish thesis favors premium collection with defined wings; use near-term short strikes inside projected pin band and farther OTM long wings.	Downside gamma flip below ~37 can accelerate losses; keep defined wings. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Volume below 5.; long_call: Wide spread (67%).
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-01 $37.50/$39.50 call spread Why now: Call-weighted flow and mild bias toward $36–37 supports selling high-delta short calls hedged by farther OTM calls; defined risk if upside pops.	Sharp IV spikes or big call buys (large blocks) can make short side costly; use conservative widths. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (67%).
Call diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-01 $38.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $44.00 call Why now: Captures rich near-term call vols and uses back-month long call as directional convexity while respecting multi-week horizon.	Near-term IV crush or sudden downside can hurt short leg; ensure back-month long is sufficiently long-dated. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (197%).

Top Plays

Sell call credit spread (37.50/39.50)

Sell 2026-05-01 $37.50/$39.50 call spread

Collect premium by selling short calls near the gamma flip to earn decay while hedging with OTM calls; small max loss if IV or price spikes above invalidation.

Why this play: Best risk/reward given call-heavy flow and capped upside; defined risk if upside breaks.

Credit: $0.61-$0.75

Max loss: $1.25

BE: $38.25

Mgmt: Close or roll if FXI > 38.75 or IV surges; take max gain near expiry if spread decays to value. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (67%).

Traders wanting defined-risk, income-biased plays with close-term horizon.

Iron condor (34.50/25 put, 38/39.50 call)

Sell 2026-05-01 $34.50/$25.00 put wing and $38.00/$39.50 call wing

Wide defined wings capture range-bound drift toward $36–37 while limiting tail risk via long wings.

Why this play: Expresses neutral-to-slightly bearish pin-to-max-pain view while collecting larger premium.

Credit: $0.38-$0.47

Max loss: $9.03

BE: 34.03 / 38.47

Mgmt: Widen or cut wings if price trends toward one side; adjust short strikes or close when 50–75% max gain reached. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Volume below 5.; long_call: Wide spread (67%).

Premium collectors comfortable with larger capital requirement and defined max loss.

Call diagonal (sell 5/1 38 / buy 6/18 44)

Sell 2026-05-01 $38.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $44.00 call

Sell near-term calls to collect premium while holding longer call for directional upside if gamma flip holds above ~37.

Why this play: Provides convex upside protection and monetizes rich near-term call vol.

Debit: $0.17-$0.20

Max loss: $0.20

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Roll short leg down or close if FXI breaches 37; trim long if prolonged flatness erodes theta. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (197%).

Traders who want asymmetric upside with limited near-term carry cost.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF FXI trades ≤37.00 and drifts within 36.00–37.00 → THEN sell call credit spread: sell 2026-05-01 37.50/39.50 for a net credit between $0.61–$0.75 (strategy_id s2)

IFIF FXI is range-bound 34.50–38.00 → THEN open iron condor: sell 2026-05-01 34.50/32.50 put wing and 38.00/39.50 call wing (strategy_id s1); target net credit $0.38–$0.47; do not enter if required credit <$0.38

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF FXI >38.75 or implied vol increases >5 percentage points vs entry IV → THEN trim/close or roll short call leg of s2 up one strike or close s2; consider widening s1 wings symmetrically to collect an additional $0.10–$0.20 credit

Exit Triggers

EXITIF FXI ≥39.02 (invalidation) or sustained breach of upside gamma flip → THEN close all short-call exposure (close s2 and the short-call side of s1) immediately and hedge any remaining deltas

Tactical Summary

Mild pin-to-max-pain bias: expect grind lower into $36–$35 band over multiweeks; neutral-to-slightly bearish near term, shifts to range-bound if FXI holds >37.

Read the Directional analysis for FXI for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.