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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $37.33EOD only

Max Pain

$37.00

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.84

2.3% from close

Price Gap

-0.33

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.89

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 12, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish regime: strong dealer gamma (+$437M) and bullish flow. Spot ~$38.26 above max pain $37, targeting $39-40. VIX 17.8 supports risk-on. Thesis: drift higher multi-week, watch $37 flip.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow +1 pinning -0.5 proximity +1 VIX = 8.5.

Supports: Dealer gamma positive, bullish flow, spot above MP, low VIX.
Conflicts: Spot 3.4% above MP may limit upside near expiry.

🟢GEX +$437M supports positive gamma drift

📈Bullish flow with elevated call buying

⚠️Spot 3.4% above max pain $37, may pin near expiry

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV normal relative to historical (VIX 17.8).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$437M, strong positive gamma, flip at ~$37.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow with net call buying.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $38.26 above MP $37 (3.4%).

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multi-week due to consistent dealer gamma and no binary event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$37.47$39.04

Resistance $39.04, support $37.47.

Next 1 week

$36.81$39.71

Support $36.81, resistance $39.71.

Next 2 weeks

$36.54$39.97

Range $36.54-$39.97.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $37 (2026-05-15); $37 (2026-05-22); $36 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $37.47/$39.04; 1w $36.81/$39.71

Support: $37.00 · $36.54 · $36.00

Resistance: $39.00 · $39.97 · $40.00

Gamma flip: ~$37.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 187,165 (3.3% below spot)

Structural: Support: $37 (gamma flip), $36.54 (2w low). Resistance: $39 (near term), $40 (round). EM guardrails: 2d $37.47/$39.04, 1w $36.81/$39.71.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+437.1M

DEX: +156.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$37 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 187,165 (3.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$437.1M, DEX +156.0M shares. Gamma flip ~$37 (put OI concentration 3.3% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV in line with VIX (~18), neutral relative to sector.

Term structure: Contango, no event kinks.

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling puts may capture premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $11.3M bullish, put/call volume ratio 0.39 favors calls.

Directional prints: 34.6 call 38.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 51618 vs OI 30749 (1.7x), high volume; likely bought as upside bet, preferred bullish. 33 call 40 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 6.9, OI 675, aggressive call buying; likely bought anticipating upside, preferred bullish. 25.3 call 41 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol 9281 vs OI 2873 (3.2x), longer-dated; likely bought for upside, preferred bullish.

Unusual: 33 call 40 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 6.9 extreme, new OI added; unusual aggressive call buying, indicates strong bullish bet. 34.6 call 38.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 51618, high relative to OI; unusual large call volume, likely bought for near-term upside. 25.3 call 41 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 3.2, significant for further expiration; unusual call buying into July, bullish bias.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot falling below $37 gamma flip could accelerate selling.

!Unexpected macro shock increasing VIX.

!Expiration pinning below $39 limits upside.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-18 $39.00/$40.00 call spread Why now: Aligns with multi-week bullish bias and net premium $11.3M bullish, targets upside using 2-point spread.	Upside capped at $40; time decay if move stalls; spot below $37 could accelerate selling.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-12 $37.00/$36.00 put spread Why now: Bullish bias with high dealer gamma at $37 acts as magnet; selling OTM put collects premium with defined risk. High put/call ratio (0.39) supports bullish flow.	If spot breaks below $37, gamma flips and losses accelerate; VIX spike could widen spreads. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (58%).; long_put: Open interest below 25.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-06-12 $39.50/$42.00 call spread Why now: High call volume and bullish gamma $37-39 zone suggest drift higher; spread reduces cost and sets profit zone near target.	If spot stalls below $39, spread decays; theta works against long position. Max loss premium paid. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (64%).; short_call: Wide spread (128%).
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-12 $39.00 call Why now: Large call buying (strike 38.5) and net positive premium favor upside; VIX 17.8 allows cheap optionality for multi-week drift.	Time decay accelerates if move stalls; theta hurts long premium. Need directional move before expiration. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-12 $39.00 call / sell 2026-06-12 $37.00 put Why now: Strong bullish flow and dealer gamma suggest limited downside; selling put at $37 support funds call purchase for leveraged upside.	Unlimited downside risk if spot collapses; short put assignment risk below strike. Requires margin. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Wide spread (58%).

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $39.00/$40.00 call spread

Buy $39/$40 call spread targets upside with defined risk.

Why this play: Best liquidity and direct alignment with multi-week drift to $39-40.

Debit: $0.32-$0.39

Max loss: $0.39

BE: $39.39

Mgmt: Close at 50% gain or near expiration if below $39.

Traders seeking high probability, low-cost bullish exposure.

Otm Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-12 $39.50/$42.00 call spread

Buy $39.50/$42 call spread for leveraged upside.

Why this play: Higher reward potential if rally exceeds $39.50, though less liquid.

Debit: $0.40-$0.48

Max loss: $0.48

BE: $39.98

Mgmt: Roll down if spot stays below $38.5; take profit at $41.5. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (64%).; short_call: Wide spread (128%).

Aggressive traders expecting move above $39.50.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-06-12 $39.00 call / sell 2026-06-12 $37.00 put

Buy $39 call, sell $37 put to finance upside.

Why this play: Zero-cost upside via selling put at $37 support; takes advantage of strong dealer gamma.

Debit: $0.29-$0.35

Max loss: $37.00

BE: $37.00

Mgmt: Monitor $37 support; if breached, close for loss. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Wide spread (58%).

Traders confident $37 holds and want cheap upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF FXI spot pulls back to $37.50-$37.70 within next 2 days → THEN buy the 2026-06-18 $39/$40 bull call spread for net debit 0.32-0.39

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF FXI spot reaches $39 within 1 week → THEN take 50% profit on the bull call spread; let rest run toward $40

Exit Triggers

EXITIF FXI spot breaks below $37 → THEN close all bullish positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Bullish multi-week drift with strong dealer gamma at $37 support. Preferred entry via $39/$40 call spread targeting $39-40. Invalidation at $37. Manage by taking partial profits near $39 and exit if support breaks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.