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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $37.23EOD only

Max Pain

$36.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.44

1.2% from close

Price Gap

-1.23

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.06

Balanced positioning

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 16, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with an upside magnet to the $36-$37 pin cluster; confidence base 5.5/10 accepted (confidence_override=null). Strong supports: expiry-specific GEX concentration at $37 (+$147.8M, short-dated) creating pinning, deterministic net premium flow -$2.9M and put-heavy volume (P/C vol 1.21). Conflict: spot sits slightly above MP and market tape (QQQ +1.40%) could sustain upside into resistance.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Baseline model score = 5.0; adjustments: +1.0 for strong expiry-specific GEX at $37 (dealer pinning effect), -1.0 for bearish aggregate flow metrics (net premium -$2.9M and P/C vol>1), +0.5 for VIX = 18.17 (moderate risk-off anchoring) => 5.0 +1.0 -1.0 +0.5 = 5.5. No override because these effects are already captured; note that the +$147.8M GEX is expiry-specific concentration and does not contradict the aggregate total GEX $101.8M — it amplifies short-dated pin risk.

Supports: 1) Expiry-specific GEX concentration at $37 will mechanically pull dealers to hedge into the pin; 2) Deterministic bearish flow (net -$2.9M, P/C vol 1.21) biases downside; 3) Max pain cluster at $36-$37 across expirations supports range-bound trade.
Conflicts: 1) Spot above MP and positive market internals (QQQ strength) increase chance of temporary upside; 2) Sparse unusual activity (single $51 call) means client-level prints do not fully explain flow, so rely on aggregate metrics rather than isolated prints.

📌Large GEX magnet at $37 (+$147.8M) is the dominant microstructure force for next two expiries.

⚠️Flow is net bearish (net premium -$2.9M; P/C vol 1.21) — short premium/put-heavy expressions have edge if pin fails below $36.

🧯2d IV is low (ATM 20.6% for 4/17) ahead of a small earnings-sized move ±$0.41; short-dated calendar sells can harvest time decay but expose to earnings gap risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol labeled Normal: ATM IVs 20.6% (2d) then 26-29% into and beyond 9-37d — implies no extreme vol shock but front-week cheapness vs back-week; good for calendar/credit sells across expiries.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: strong near-term GEX concentration at $37 and $36 means dealers will hedge toward the pin; small moves into the pin will see dampened realized moves but sharp flows if pin breaks — flip at ~$32 is distant.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Bearish: net premium -$2.9M, P/C vol 1.21 and higher put OI cluster at $37/$36/$32 indicate directional put buying/put sales from clients or systematic sellers of calls; favors premium selling to downside or bearish defined-risk strategies.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Above: spot $36.88 sits above immediate max pain ($36 on 4/17, $37 on 4/24) increasing probability of drift toward the $36-$37 pin in the next 2-9 days.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Regime centers on weekly expiries (4/17 and 4/24) with max pain pins and GEX concentrated in the next two expiries; IV kink between 2d and 9-16d indicates event-week dynamics — prefer weeklies and 30-45 DTE only for tactical hedges.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$36.47$37.30

Dealer hedging toward $37 GEX (+$147.8M) will compress moves; break above $37.30 triggers short-squeeze into $38.24 resistance.

Next 1 week

$35.85$37.92

A close below $36.00 shifts momentum toward $35.52 support and exposes gamma flip toward stronger downside.

Next 2 weeks

$35.52$38.24

Sustained move below $35.52 (1.36 expected move) will draw dealer deleveraging toward gamma flip near $32 and accelerate declines.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $36 (2026-04-17); $37 (2026-04-24); $35 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $36.47/$37.30; 1w $35.85/$37.92

Support: $36.00 · $35.52 · $35.00

Resistance: $37.00 · $38.24 · $40.00

Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 124,262 (13.2% below spot)

Structural: Structural layers: call OI wall at $40 resists rallies into $40; put floor $32-$35 forms longer-term support and marks gamma flip (~$32) — use these for tail sizing and long-dated protection placement.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+101.8M

DEX: +133.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 124,262 (13.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term NTM gamma is strongly positive around $37/$36 (GEX lumps +$147.8M @37, +$29.1M @36, +$9.0M @36.5) which creates a magnet: dealers will sell delta into rallies toward $37 and buy delta into small dips, compressing volatility inside the pin; if spot moves -2% (~$36.14) dealers will reduce long-delta hedges but net GEX still supports reversion toward $37; if spot moves +2% (~$37.61) dealers will increase short-delta hedges, amplifying resistance at $37-$38 and making upside above $38 harder without strong tape.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: FXI ATM avg IV 31.1% vs VIX 18.17 — FXI is naturally higher (country/sector risk) but short-dated 2d IV (20.6%) is cheap vs 9-16d (26-29%), suggesting calendars and selling near-term vs owning back-month vol have structural edge; overall IV is not rich enough to warrant naked long-vol except around a clear catalyst.

Term structure: Front-week kink: 2d ATM 20.6% then pronounced lift to 26-29% at 9-37d; back-months flatten ~26-30% with occasional rises toward 64-120d; priced earnings/catalyst across weeklies (4/17 ±$0.41) and next week (4/24 ±$1.04) — good setup for short front / long back calendars or diagonal structures.

Skew: Put skew: elevated put OI at $37/$36/$32 and cheap 2d vol create a mispriced opportunity: sell 4/17 (2d) ATM calls or call spreads and buy 4/24/5/01 back-month calls as a calendar/diagonal to monetize cheap near-dated calls while retaining limited upside convexity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$2.9M bearish; P/C vol 1.21 and P/C OI 1.07 confirm put-biased orderflow supporting downside-leaning premium sells.

Directional prints: 160.9 call 51 OTM 2026-04-17 — Large relative IV print (FXI260417C00051000) — could be speculative long call or dealer sell to move IV; bought-call interpretation is low-prob but if true it is distressed directional bullish; more consistent read given overall flow: likely small client buying of lottery call, not systemic hedge. 27.5 call 39 OTM 2026-05-22 — Top premium flow shows heavy call premium at $39 (net positive call dollars) — could be call buys or call sellers financing puts; given net bearish flow overall, more consistent as call sellers/structures paying for puts or gamma dispersion trades.

Unusual: 160.9 call 51 OTM 2026-04-17 — Outsize IV on 4/17 $51 call (IV 160.9%, Vol 210, OI 105) — two-sided: large buyer would be outright long-vol/speculative; sell-side likely sold into it and picked up premium; given regime, treat as isolated lottery buy, not primary market driver.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings / short-dated prints: 2026-04-17 expected move ±$0.41 means 2d gap risk — short-front strategies can be gap-exposed.

!Gamma flip at ~$32: sustained break below $35.52/$35 will start dealer deleveraging toward flip, accelerating downside to $32 — tail risk for short premium positions.

!Pin failure risk: large GEX at $37 can flip from magnet to resist if macro pushes higher (QQQ strength) and cause short squeezes up to $38.24-$40.

!Vol-term kink: 2d IV cheap vs 9-16d — mis-timing a calendar/short-front could be crushed if realized vol spikes into the 9-16d window.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-17 $38.50/$39.50 call spread Why now: Heavy GEX at $37 and cheap 2d IV make selling short-dated call spreads into resistance profitable; defined risk and aligns with bearish net premium flow.	Upside gap above $38.24 or strong market rip that invalidates pin and hits $40 level. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.; long_call: Open interest below 25.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-04-17 $36.50/$34.00 put spread Why now: P/C skew and put OI clusters make near-term put credits attractive inside the pin with defined risk to $35 support and benefit from time decay.	Drop below $35.00 exposes to gamma flip and dealer deleveraging; manage or roll to lower strikes. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (167%).
Long put	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-24 $36.00 put Why now: Bearish flow and put OI clusters plus risk of dealer deleveraging below $35 make long puts a cheap asymmetric hedge for tactical bearish exposure.	Theta decay if price instead grinds toward $37; expensive vs very short-dated sells but effective protection for larger positions. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (123%).
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-15 $36.00/$35.00 put spread Why now: Structured bearish view that avoids large theta decay of long puts; leverages put floor at $32-$35 and limits cost while retaining downside participation.	Compressed moves around $37 pin reduce realized gains; need clear breakdown below $35 to realize edge.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2027-03-19 $37.00 call + sell 2026-04-17 $37.00 call Why now: Structural put floor at $32-$35 and long-dated call IV elevated in 2027 make PMCC efficient for replacing stock exposure while using pinning to collect premium.	Large assignment risk on short weekly if FXI gaps above short strikes; requires active management and buy-in of LEAP premium. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (51%).; short_call: Wide spread (86%).
Short strangle	Conditional	Sell 2026-04-17 $34.00 put + sell $38.50 call Why now: Pinning and compressed 2d IV reduce realized move probability outside the narrow 2d guardrails; sells monetize time decay cheaply for 2d exposure.	Large gap on 4/17 earnings or unexpected macro can produce unlimited loss; only for small size and tight risk controls. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.
Long straddle	Weak	Buy 2026-04-24 $37.00 put + buy $37.00 call Why now: Expensive relative to front-week but useful as directional crash hedge; use size discipline.	High theta; poor if price grinds into pin; reserve for specific catalyst views only. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (52%).; long_put: Wide spread (54%).

Top Plays

2d Call Credit Spreads into Resistance

Sell 2026-04-17 $38.50/$39.50 call spread

Sell 4/17 or 4/24 call credit spreads near 0.25 delta short leg targeting $37 resistance; profits from dealer delta selling into rallies and time decay.

Why this play: Defined-risk way to harvest the pin and bearish net premium while limiting tail risk from earnings gap.

Credit: $0.01-$0.01

Max loss: $0.99

BE: $38.51

Mgmt: Buy protection if price closes >$38.24 or widen/roll if underlying moves >1% above short strike. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Income-oriented traders seeking defined risk over very short windows.

30-45 DTE Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-05-15 $36.00/$35.00 put spread

Buy a 30-45 DTE bear put spread (target strikes ~34/32 area) to capture downside if pin fails and dealer deleverage accelerates.

Why this play: Gives structured bearish exposure beyond weekly noise with defined risk and ties to the $32-$35 put floor support levels.

Debit: $0.23-$0.29

Max loss: $0.29

BE: $35.71

Mgmt: Take partial profits on close below $35.00; roll short leg lower if drawdown hits -1.5x risk.

Traders who want a directional hedge without unlimited downside and who expect a multi-week breakdown.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf FXI trades and closes below $36.00 (support) on daily basis then → enter S2 put credit spread sized to defined risk with short_put strike at $35 exp 2026-04-24 and long_put strike at $34 exp 2026-04-24.

IFIf FXI fails to close below $36.47 over next 2 sessions and implied 2d IV remains <=20.6% then → enter S1 call credit spread: sell 4/17-4/17 call spread short strike $37 exp 2026-04-17, long strike $38 exp 2026-04-17.

IFIf FXI stays between $36.47 and $37.30 into 2026-04-17 then → enter S7 small-size short_strangle: short_put $34 and short_call $38 expiration 2026-04-17.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf FXI gaps above $38.24 intra-day then → close/roll up short call legs (any weekly) and reduce size of call credit/calendar positions; consider buying protection calls 30-64d.

ADJIf FXI closes below $35.52 on any daily close then → take partial profits on bearish spreads (S5) and initiate additional long protection (buy long_put 2026-05-01 strike 34).

Exit Triggers

EXITIf FXI closes at or above $37.92 (1w upper guardrail) then → exit front-week call credits and calendars' short legs; redeploy into back-month diagonals.

EXITIf FXI closes below $32.00 then → exit short premium strategies and switch to long-dated protection/accumulate long calls/stock exposure as dealer gamma flip likely accelerates downside.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: near-term pinning to $36-$37 favors short-front premium (call credits, calendars, small strangles) while maintaining defined-risk bearish spreads for a pin failure; invalidation for short premium is sustained close above $38.24 and for bearish spreads invalidation is sustained close above $37.92. Top plays: S3 calendar for asymmetric upside, S1 call credit for defined short premium, S5 bear put spread for multi-week directional exposure; size front-week sells small and hedge into 9-37d expiries.

Read the Directional analysis for FXI for 2026-04-15. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.