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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $38.26EOD only

Max Pain

$37.00

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.78

2.0% from close

Price Gap

-1.26

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.89

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 13, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral bias, pinned near $37 by max pain. Mixed flow, normal vol. Mean-reversion focus.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base5 +2 (pinning/VIX) =7. Key: GEX+, spot~MP, VIX17.

Supports: Positive GEX, near MP, normal vol.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, no catalyst.

📍MP $37 pins spot (0.3% above) for 5/15,5/22.

⚖️GEX+$285M, gamma flip at $37.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV normal vs history; VIX 17, no stress.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +285M positive; flip at ~$37 (put OI 187k).

Flow Regime

Mixed

Premium mixed; P/C inconclusive.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot $37.12, 0.3% above MP $37; pinning likely.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pins 5/15,5/22; gamma flip supports mean-reversion.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$36.73$37.76

Pin at $37, range $36.73-37.76.

Next 1 week

$36.16$38.32

MP $37 on 5/22, range $36.16-38.32, $38 resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$35.78$38.70

Bearish gamma >$37, resistance $38.7, support $35.78.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $37 (2026-05-15); $37 (2026-05-22); $36 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $36.73/$37.76; 1w $36.16/$38.32

Support: $37.00 · $36.00 · $35.78

Resistance: $38.00 · $38.70 · $39.00

Gamma flip: ~$37.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 187,198 (0.6% below spot)

Structural: MP $37(5/15&5/22), $36(5/29). Guardrails: 2d $36.73/37.76, 1w $36.16/38.32, 2w $35.78/38.7. Support $37/36/35.78, resist $38/38.7/39. Gamma flip $37.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+285.1M

DEX: +148.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$37 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 187,198 (0.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$285M positive; DEX +148M shares net long. Gamma flip ~$37 (put OI 187k).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: FXI IV in line; VIX 17 normal vol, no premium.

Term structure: IV term structure data unavailable; typical contango, no event kinks.

Skew: Skew flat; no actionable opportunity without catalyst. Focus on gamma pin at $37.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$2.04M; P/C vol 0.94, OI 0.87; mixed slightly bearish.

Directional prints: 27.1 call 38.5 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 5.8x; likely bought (bullish) or sold (bearish); preferred bullish. 25.8 call 38 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 3.6x; likely bought (bullish) or sold (bearish); preferred bullish. 25.7 call 37.5 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 3.0x; likely bought (bullish) or sold (bearish); preferred bullish.

Unusual: 28.8 call 38.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 2.5x (18870 vol); likely bought (bullish) or sold (bearish); preferred bullish. 28.5 call 40 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 1.6x (2709 vol); OTM call; possible bearish if sold, but preferred bullish. 35.4 call 34 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 2.0x (233 vol); deep ITM high IV; likely closing (neutral) or opening (bullish); preferred bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!China policy surprise breaks $36

!Spot breaches $37; gamma flip fails

!Low volume leads to sharp swings

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-06-18 $36.00/$35.00 put wing and $39.00/$41.00 call wing Why now: IV normal, max pain $37, high OI 18Jun exp, ideal for premium harvest.	Volatility expansion or China policy surprise breaching $34 or $40. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (63%).
Short strangle	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-06-18 $35.00 put + sell $40.00 call Why now: IV normal, high OI at 18Jun exp, premium decay favors short vol.	Tail risk from China policy surprise; hard to hedge.

Top Plays

Neutral Iron Condor

Sell 2026-06-18 $36.00/$35.00 put wing and $39.00/$41.00 call wing

Sell 36/35 put spread and 39/41 call spread on 18Jun expiry, collecting ~0.50 credit.

Why this play: Defined risk, aligns with neutral bias and max pain at $37.

Credit: $0.45-$0.56

Max loss: $1.44

BE: 35.44 / 39.56

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaches $36 or $39; take profit at 50% of max gain. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (63%).

Risk-averse neutral traders

Short Strangle

Sell 2026-06-18 $35.00 put + sell $40.00 call

Sell 35 put and 40 call on 18Jun expiry, collecting ~0.60 credit.

Why this play: Higher premium than IC, but unlimited risk; good liquidity.

Credit: $0.55-$0.67

Max loss: Unlimited

BE: 34.33 / 40.67

Mgmt: Set stop-loss if spot moves below $34 or above $41.

Traders with high risk tolerance seeking higher yield

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot between $36.73 and $37.76, neutral bias, normal IV. → Enter Iron Condor: sell 18Jun 36/35 put spread & 39/41 call spread, target 0.50 credit.

IFSpot near $37, IV normal, high risk tolerance. → Enter Short Strangle: sell 18Jun 35 put & 40 call, target 0.60 credit.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJSpot breaches $36 or $39. → Close Iron Condor; evaluate rolling. For Strangle, monitor stop levels.

Exit Triggers

EXITProfit reaches 50% of max gain on Iron Condor. → Take profit on FXI_IC_1.

EXITSpot hits $34 or $41. → Exit Short Strangle (FXI_SS_1) immediately.

Tactical Summary

Neutral bias with max pain at $37. Key support $36, resistance $39. Favor Iron Condor for defined risk. Short Strangle for higher yield. Exit if key levels break.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.