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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $37.60EOD only

Max Pain

$36.50

Next expiry Apr 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.91

2.4% from close

Price Gap

-1.10

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.04

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 17, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Slightly bullish-to-neutral: dealer long-gamma and concentrated put OI pin near $37 keep price range-bound; upside capped ~39.3 absent fresh flow, downside limited while dealers remain long-gamma.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Dealer GEX dominance, concentrated near-term put OI (~37), DEX accumulation; offsets: spot ~3.2% above MP and mixed premium flow.

Supports: Dealer GEX +$18.3M; notable DEX accumulation (see dealer_positioning_ntm_gamma).
Conflicts: Spot above MP and mixed premium flow limit sustained directional conviction.

📌Primary near-term pin: $37 for the nearest expiries; other max-pain points reflect different expiries.

🟢Dealer GEX (+$18.3M) provides short-term downside compression

⚖️DEX flow large in notional but less direct to immediate gamma than dealer GEX

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV ~normal vs VIX (~18.9); no extreme richness/cheapness.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime: dealers net long-gamma (GEX +$18.3M) with a gamma flip near $37 for near-dated expiries; pins vary by expiry, $37 is primary for the nearest cycle.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: large DEX buy notional (~$4.6B) reinforces floors but is different in mechanics from dealer hedging; overall premium flow not dominantly one-sided.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~3.2% above model MP; increases chance of mean reversion toward the $37 near-term pin if selling resumes.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Persistent dealer positioning and clustered option interest across several near expiries support multi-week pin/grind dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$35.99$39.32

Dealer long-gamma and DEX notional support limit sharp downside; upside capped near 39.3.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $36 (2026-04-24); $35 (2026-05-01); $37 (2026-05-08)

EM guardrails:

Support: $37.00 · $36.50 · $36.00

Resistance: $39.32 · $40.00 · $41.00

Gamma flip: ~$37.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 179,302 (1.8% below spot)

Structural: Primary near-expiry pin/resistance: $37. Support cluster: 36.5, 36.0. Resistance: 39.32, 40.0. Other max-pain reads (e.g., $35, $36) correspond to later expiries—time-varying pins.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+18.3M

DEX: +121.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$37 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 179,302 (1.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer GEX +$18.3M (net long-gamma) — primary driver of short-term pinning. DEX accumulation = ~121.3M shares ≈ $4.6B notional (using ~$38 spot); large flow footprint but less immediate gamma impact than dealer GEX.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: FXI IV roughly in line with VIX; not materially rich or cheap versus broader equity volatility, so vols don't strongly bias directional trades.

Term structure: Flat-to-slightly-sloped term structure with kinks where put OI clusters for near-dated expiries (nearest expiry shows strongest kink at $37).

Skew: Put-heavy skew near $37; actionable: sell structured premium (e.g., credit spreads/backspread collars) sized for pin risk or sell small tail protection if comfortable with short-term pinning.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium received ~$353k (net seller); OI shows slight put skew (P/C OI 1.15) while premium-weighted skew is small (P/C vol 1.06).

Directional prints: 26.7 call 39 OTM 2026-05-22 — Near-term 39C with high vol/OI ratio (~1k vol vs OI 200) — directional call interest possible, but trade aggressor unknown so buy/sell unclear. 24.4 call 39 OTM 2026-07-17 — Large July 39C flow (13.3k vol, OI 2,873) — strong directional footprint, yet aggressor not identified; interpret as bullish exposure candidate. 32 put 32 OTM 2026-07-17 — July 32P (~198 vol, OI 119) — modest put activity consistent with protection or targeted short exposure; trade aggressor unknown.

Unusual: 24.4 call 39 OTM 2026-07-17 — Very large July 39C print stands out as primary directional flow; aggressor unknown, so treat as strong interest rather than confirmed buys. 26.7 call 39 OTM 2026-05-22 — High vol/OI for short-dated 39C — concentrated short-dated bet but aggressor not confirmed. 32 put 32 OTM 2026-07-17 — Elevated IV on July 32P suggests targeted protection or hedging; directional read uncertain without aggressor data.

Risks & Catalysts

!Catalytic macro shock (spikes VIX) causing gap moves and breaking the pin.

!Heavy selling through $37 flips dealer hedging to net-short gamma and can amplify downside.

!Major China/EM news or large ETF flows that materially rerate FXI fundamentals or overwhelm dealer positioning.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-15 $37.00/$34.00 put spread Why now: Slightly bullish-to-neutral bias; collect premium with defined risk using strikes inside the dealer pin; choose multi-week expirations.	Macro shock or heavy selling through 37 can overwhelm position. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (75%).; long_put: Wide spread (59%).
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-15 $37.00/$35.00 put wing and $39.00/$41.00 call wing Why now: Range-bound multi-week setup benefits from concentrated OI/pin and modest skew; defined wings limit tail risk.	Gap higher or lower from a macro catalyst can produce rapid assignment or width stress. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (75%).; long_call: Wide spread (53%).
Call diagonal	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-08 $39.50 call / buy 2026-06-18 $39.00 call Why now: Sell rich near-term vol where short-dated call flow exists (~39C prints) and buy longer-dated call to keep upside optionality across the multi-week horizon.	Short leg can be assigned on a fast gap up; vol skew shifts can hurt calendar value. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (121%).; long_call: Volume below 5.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-15 $39.00/$41.00 call spread Why now: Directional but defined-risk; aligns with slightly bullish-to-neutral bias and capped upside—use multi-week expirations.	If FXI grinds lower or macro shock spikes VIX, premium paid may decay without payoff. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (53%).

Top Plays

Range iron condor

Sell 2026-05-15 $37.00/$35.00 put wing and $39.00/$41.00 call wing

Sell 37/35 put wing and 39/41 call wing to monetize concentrated OI and dealer long-gamma pin.

Why this play: Best expresses neutral/multi-week pin and collects highest defined premium while capping tails.

Credit: $0.59-$0.72

Max loss: $1.28

BE: 36.28 / 39.72

Mgmt: Reduce or roll if price trades toward a wing; tighten or close on catalytic macro shocks or heavy selling through 37. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (75%).; long_call: Wide spread (53%).

Traders wanting defined-risk income with neutral bias.

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-15 $37.00/$34.00 put spread

Sell 37/34 put spread to collect premium while maintaining defined loss if 37 fails.

Why this play: Aligns with slightly bullish-to-neutral view and keeps downside limited inside the pin.

Credit: $0.38-$0.47

Max loss: $2.53

BE: $36.53

Mgmt: Close or roll wider if selling pressure approaches 37 or if dealers flip short-gamma; cut on major China/ETF flow events. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (75%).; long_put: Wide spread (59%).

Income traders comfortable with one-sided bullish lean.

Call diagonal/calendar

Sell 2026-05-08 $39.50 call / buy 2026-06-18 $39.00 call

Short near-term 39.5/long later 39 to harvest vol decay and stay exposed to upside moves.

Why this play: Play rich short-dated 39 calls seen in flow while keeping upside optionality longer term.

Debit: $0.49-$0.59

Max loss: $0.59

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Buy back short leg into spikes or roll calendar forward if calls keep being printed; exit on volatility shocks. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (121%).; long_call: Volume below 5.

Traders wanting directional upside with vol arbitrage.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF FXI trades and accumulates ≥4 trading hours within 0.25 points of $37 while price remains between $36.50–$38.50 over a single session → THEN sell 2026-05-15 37/35 put wing and 39/41 call wing (fxi_iron_condor_01) to collect defined premium, target net credit 0.40–0.70

IFIF FXI closes ≥2 sessions above $37 or tests $37 from above with intraday downside ≤2% from entry price → THEN sell 2026-05-15 $37/$34 put spread (fxi_put_cr_spread_01) sized to collect 0.38–0.47 net credit

IFIF FXI rallies toward ~$39 and front-month call IV rank ≥60 and front/back call implied vol spread ≥3 vol points → THEN sell 2026-05-08 $39.50 call and buy 2026-06-18 $39.00 call (fxi_call_calendar_01) to harvest front-month decay

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF FXI breaks and closes below $37 by ≥0.40 points or intraday drop >2.5% from trade entry, or if short-leg mark loss ≥50% of premium collected, or if IV increases ≥8 vol points → THEN tighten wings (buy protective wings 1–2 points wider) or buy back short legs to limit loss to predefined max; close position if loss > max risk

Exit Triggers

EXITIF VIX spikes above 25, or FXI drops ≥6% in one session, or FXI cumulative decline ≥8% over 3 sessions → THEN close or materially reduce all short-dated short option exposure immediately

Tactical Summary

Neutral-to-slightly-bullish multi-week: monetize $37 pin with defined-risk iron condor or put-credit sized to target listed credits; use call calendar when front-month IV rank≥60; adjust/close on listed price, loss, or IV thresholds; forced exit on VIX>25 or large FXI drops.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.