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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $35.89EOD only
Max Pain
$37.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.45
1.3% from close
Price Gap
+1.11
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
47
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.89
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
FXI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias for FXI driven by negative dealer gamma (-$91.9M) and flow alignment, with spot below $37 max pain. Low VIX (16.76) limits vol but negative gamma amplifies downside risk below $35.44.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned -0.5 spot 3% below MP +1 VIX 17 = 7.5. Strong alignment supports bearish thesis.
Supports: Negative GEX (-$91.9M), spot below $37 max pain, put OI concentration at $32.
Conflicts: Low VIX (16.76) and normal vol regime limit immediate vol expansion; mixed flow allows counter-trend moves.
📉Negative gamma exposes downside acceleration on break of $35.44.
🔑$37 max pain is strong resistance; spot at $35.9 faces gravity.
🛡️Low VIX suggests limited panic selling, but gamma flip at $32 is a tail risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
IV ~17% in line with VIX, complacent but not suppressed.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma regime with short dealer gamma (-$91.9M), amplifying moves below $35.44.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium with bearish lean; put activity concentrated at $32 (10.8% below spot) suggests protective positioning.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot $35.9 is 3% below $37 max pain, indicating drift toward $35 support before expiry.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Proximity to weekly $37 max pain and short-dated gamma exposure create event-driven dynamics for May 22 expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$35.44$36.34
Approaching support at $35.44; break triggers gamma cascade.
Next 1 week
$35.04$36.74
Downside risk to $35.04; resistance at $36.74.
Next 2 weeks
$34.71$37.06
Range expansion likely; gamma flip at $32 is tail risk.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $37 (2026-05-22); $36 (2026-05-29); $36 (2026-06-05)
EM guardrails: 2d $35.44/$36.34; 1w $35.04/$36.74
Support: $35.00 · $34.71 · $34.00
Resistance: $37.00 · $37.06 · $38.00
Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 126,420 (10.8% below spot)
Structural: Support: $35.44 (2d), $35.04 (1w), $34.71 (2w), $34 (put OI). Resistance: $37 (max pain), $37.06 (2w), $38 (call OI). Gamma flip: ~$32.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-91.9M

DEX: +127.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 126,420 (10.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma (-$91.9M) and long delta (+127.6M shares). Negative gamma increases vulnerability below $35.44; put OI concentration at $32 marks potential flip level.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV ~17% in line with VIX, neither rich nor cheap.

Term structure: Downward sloping near term, front-week elevated, then flattening.

Skew: Put skew steeper than call skew; no clear vol arbitrage opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$3.5M (bearish), put/call vol ratio 1.00 neutral, OI ratio 0.89 slightly call-biased.

Directional prints: 26.5 call 39 OTM 2026-12-18 — Vol 53308 vs OI 771 (69x), likely opening purchase of OTM calls. Bought, bullish. 25.9 put 35 OTM 2026-12-18 — Vol 54303 vs OI 11713 (4.6x), large put volume, possibly opening or hedge. Bought, bearish.

Unusual: 26.5 call 39 OTM 2026-12-18 — Extreme vol/OI ratio 69.1, aggressive bullish bet on OTM call. 25.9 put 35 OTM 2026-12-18 — Large volume 54303 puts, vol/OI 4.6, significant bearish positioning. 29.1 put 35.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Expires tomorrow, vol 738 vs OI 182 (4x), high IV, likely short-term bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Upside from China policy reversal could stop bearish flow.
!Low VIX implies low expected move; gamma squeeze could spike vol.
!Economic data during week may shift sentiment.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-18 $35.00/$34.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk bear put spread profits from decline with limited upfront cost.
If FXI rallies, maximum loss is net debit paid.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-06-18 $35.00 put
Why now: Low implied vol makes puts cheap; bearish dealer gamma amplifies downside.
Time decay if FXI does not move; premium at risk.

Top Plays

#1
Long Put
Buy 2026-06-18 $35.00 put
Buy 2026-06-18 $35.00 put to profit from downside with cheap premium.
Why this play: Low IV and bearish dealer gamma favor cheap puts; highest profit potential on decline.
Debit: $0.48-$0.59
Max loss: $0.59
BE: $34.41
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaches $37 invalidation; consider partial profits at $34.
Aggressive bears seeking uncapped downside exposure.
#2
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-06-18 $35.00/$34.00 put spread
Buy $35/$34 put spread for limited risk/ reward.
Why this play: Defined risk alternative with lower cost; profits from move to $34.
Debit: $0.23-$0.29
Max loss: $0.29
BE: $34.71
Mgmt: Set stop at $37; let spread expire or close near max profit.
Traders wanting capped risk and lower capital outlay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot < $35.44 → Buy 2026-06-18 $35.00 put
IFSpot < $35.04 → Buy 2026-06-18 $35.00/$34.00 put spread
Adjustment Triggers
ADJSpot reaches $34 → Take partial profits on long put
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot > $37 → Exit all positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish on FXI due to negative dealer gamma and spot below $37 max pain. Key supports: $35.44, $35.04, $34.71, $34. Invalidation at $37. Initiate long put or bear put spread on breakdown; take partial profits on long put at $34.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.