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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $37.66EOD only

Max Pain

$36.50

Next expiry Apr 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.78

2.1% from close

Price Gap

-1.16

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.15

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 20, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Mildly bearish: negative GEX and net bearish premium flow favor downside toward the ~$37 gamma flip; spot sits ~1.7% above max-pain so pin risk remains while momentum and flow tilt bearish over the next 1–2 weeks.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base score driven by -$43.2M GEX, net bearish option flow, and spot ~1.7% above max-pain.

Supports: Negative GEX, bearish option flow, spot ~1.7% above max-pain (~$37).
Conflicts: IV near normal and VIX modestly elevated; resistance near $38.6 may cap rallies.

⚠️Gamma flip ≈$37 is a likely pin/inflection in the next week

📉Net bearish premium and -$43M GEX bias increase downside probability into expiries

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV near typical range; no extreme convexity though front-month slightly elevated into expiries.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Concentrated put OI produces a gamma flip near $37; spot is ~1.7% above that level.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net bearish premium flow; dealers show dex +131.6M (net long delta) while managing negative GEX exposure.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot slightly above max-pain cluster (~1.7%), making pinning toward $36–$37 plausible as expiries approach.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained bearish flow plus concentrated put gamma supports a multi-week downside tilt toward the gamma flip and max-pain band.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$36.46$37.77

Near-term pin risk at $36–$37; watch 2d guardrails

Next 1 week

$35.96$38.26

Dealer gamma and put concentration raise downside odds

Next 2 weeks

$35.63$38.60

Persistent bearish flow and negative GEX favor lower end of $35.6–$38.6 band

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $36 (2026-04-24); $38 (2026-05-01); $37 (2026-05-08)

EM guardrails: 2d $36.46/$37.77; 1w $35.96/$38.26

Support: $37.00 · $36.50 · $36.00

Resistance: $38.60 · $40.00

Gamma flip: ~$37.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 179,362 (0.3% below spot)

Structural: 2d guardrails $36.46/$37.77; 1w $35.96/$38.26; supports: 37.0, 36.5, 36.0; resistances: 38.6 then 40.0; gamma flip ≈$37.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-43.2M

DEX: +131.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$37 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 179,362 (0.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$43.2M; dex +131.6M (dealers net long delta). Concentrated put OI creates gamma flip near $37 that can compress moves and produce pinning into expiry.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV roughly in line with VIX (~19–20); not rich enough to strongly favor vol buys, though put skew is heavier than call skew.

Term structure: Modest front-month elevation with kinks around late-April/early-May expiries (max-pain dates).

Skew: Put-heavy skew near $36–$37; opportunity in hedged downside structures where front-month put premium is bid.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Large net negative premium (~-$3.24M) — buyers paid net premium, indicating buy-side (protective/speculative) bias; P/C volume skew confirms bearish directional demand.

Directional prints: 29.6 put 29 OTM 2026-11-20 — Huge 14.2k vol vs 1.5k OI (vol/oi 9.4) — likely aggressive long puts (opening buys) or protective buys; bearish directional read. 42.6 put 30 OTM 2026-10-16 — 3k vol, elevated IV — clear demand for downside protection; supports sustained bearish flow. 33.2 call 38 OTM 2026-05-01 — Mid-sized near-term call flow (715 vol) — could be speculative buys or hedged structures; secondary to dominant put demand.

Unusual: 29.6 put 29 OTM 2026-11-20 — Outlier by volume and vol/oi; strongest single bearish signal. 42.6 put 30 OTM 2026-10-16 — High IV and vol/oi — notable protective buying. 34.6 call 38.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — Near-dated call pick-up but tiny premium/last — likely tactical, not trend-changing.

Risks & Catalysts

!Sharp market rebound squeezing short positions and reversing flow

!Unexpected macro/China news or ETF inflows lifting the underlying

!Gamma pinning that keeps spot rangebound, limiting directional follow-through

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Call credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-22 $39.00/$40.00 call spread Why now: Net bearish premium flow, negative GEX and pin risk around 37 make upside limited; sell strength 1–4 weeks.	Sharp rally/gamma squeeze forcing losses or early assignment on short calls.
Bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-06-18 $36.00/$32.00 put spread Why now: Bearish flow and GEX support downside toward 36–37 over multi-week horizon; use debit spread to limit cost.	Limited profit if range-bound or gamma pinning prevents follow-through. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (82%).; short_put: Wide spread (164%).
Long put	Weak	Buy 2026-05-22 $37.00 put Why now: Aggressive protective/speculative flows and high put demand signal paid downside insurance; buy near-ATM puts for convexity over next 2–4 weeks.	Premium decay if market grinds sideways or recovers quickly. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (64%).

Top Plays

Multi-week bear put spread (36/32)

Buy 2026-06-18 $36.00/$32.00 put spread

Directional bearish spread to capture move to $36–$37 while capping cost; benefits from elevated put demand.

Why this play: Best risk-reward expressing the mildly bearish multi-week thesis with limited debit and defined risk.

Debit: $0.31-$0.38

Max loss: $0.38

BE: $35.62

Mgmt: Enter within quoted range; tighten or close if spot rallies above ~38.6 or after target reached; consider rolling lower if momentum accelerates. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (82%).; short_put: Wide spread (164%).

Traders wanting directional exposure with capped risk and moderate conviction.

Short call spread (39/40)

Sell 2026-05-22 $39.00/$40.00 call spread

Sell short-dated call spread to collect premium when upside appears constrained; favorable if spot stays near or below max-pain.

Why this play: High-probability income play aligned with negative GEX and pin risk limiting upside near $37.

Credit: $0.06-$0.08

Max loss: $0.92

BE: $39.08

Mgmt: Enter on strength; close or hedge if spot breaks and holds above 38.6 or if spread nears max loss.

Income/neutral-bear traders seeking defined credit and margin of safety.

Near-term long put (37)

Buy 2026-05-22 $37.00 put

Buy ATM put for directional convexity and asymmetric payoff over 2–4 weeks.

Why this play: Pure convex bearish play capturing near-term downside and flows showing aggressive put buying.

Debit: $0.78-$0.96

Max loss: $0.96

BE: $36.04

Mgmt: Buy within range; manage actively—trim on sharp moves lower or stop if spot recovers above invalidation level. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (64%).

Aggressive traders/speculative hedgers wanting direct downside exposure.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot ≤37.5 and drifting toward 36–37 over 1–4 weeks (≤ -3% weekly avg) → THEN buy 2026-06-18 36/32 bear put spread within $0.31–$0.38

IFIF spot rallies into 38.0–38.6 resistance or shows short-term strength but fails above 38.6 (rejection candle or close <38.6 within 3 sessions) → THEN sell 2026-05-22 39/40 call credit spread for $0.06–$0.08, size ≤ half of put-spread notional

IFIF immediate downside conviction defined as ANY of: (a) intraday drop ≥1.5% with follow-through next session, (b) 30-day ATM IV rises ≥25% vs 7-day avg, or (c) single-leg put volume ≥3× open interest and ≥2× 30-day avg flow → THEN buy 2026-05-22 37 put for $0.78–$0.96, position size capped at 25% of total delta exposure

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF spot >38.6 OR position-markdown P/L ≤ -50% (unrealized) OR spread equity hit max loss → THEN follow tiered rules: (A) If spot 38.6–39.5 and P/L > -60%: hedge by buying 2026-05-22 39 call qty = 50% of put-spread contracts and trim call-credit size by 50%; (B) If spot >39.5 OR P/L ≤ -60%: close all short calls and close or roll bear put spread up one strike (36/32 → 38/34) only if fills ≤ 1.5× original premium; (C) If spot ≤35 within 14 days: consider rolling down to 34/30 bear put spread to regain debit up to 1.2× original cost.

Tactical Summary

Mildly bearish multi-week to $36–37 (gamma flip ≈$37). Primary: defined-risk 36/32 bear put spread. Opportunistic: sell 39/40 call spread on failed rallies. Tactical convexity: buy ATM puts only on measurable downside/flow/IV signals. Strict adjust rules: hedge size, roll thresholds, and P/L stops to limit drawdown.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.