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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $34.99EOD only

Max Pain

$36.50

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.38

1.1% from close

Price Gap

+1.51

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.88

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 28, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 28, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a magnet to $37 (pinning) and a small upside bias while spot stays above max pain; Confidence: 5.5/10.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5.5 from pre-computed: +159.5M GEX pinning and MP cluster at $36-$37 support pin; mixed flow and slight net premium negative (-$3.1M) reduce conviction; VIX 18.36 slightly supportive of selling premium.

Supports: GEX concentration +$202.3M at $37, +$26.4M at $36 and max pain $36 (4/17) / $37 (4/24).
Conflicts: Net premium -$3.1M and P/C vol near 0.94 show some put buying; avg IV 28.9% > short-dated ATM IV (~24.8%) creates term pockets.

📌Pinning strong at $37 (+$202.3M GEX) — primary magnet

🧭Gamma flip ~ $32 — limited path to large downside without dealer de-risking

💸Net premium negative (-$3.1M) and P/C OI 1.08 indicate mixed institutional put flow

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal volatility — Avg IV 28.9% vs VIX 18.36; near-dated IV compressed (3d ATM 24.8%).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime: large positive GEX (+159.5M) concentrated at $37 and $36 causing dealer delta buying near those strikes, increasing mean-reversion into pins.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: P/C vol 0.94 and P/C OI 1.08 with net premium -$3.1M — some put demand but not dominant; not strong directional institutional positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $36.89 sits above short-term max pain ($36/4/17; $37/4/24) — slight upside drift toward $37 as dealers hedge.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and MP levels persist across multiple expirations ($36-$37 flat trend) and GEX concentration appears in the next two expiries, supporting a 2–6 week range thesis (prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades).

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$36.27$37.50

GEX +$202.3M at $37 and EM upper bound $37.50; break below $36.27 would indicate pin erosion.

Next 1 week

$35.83$37.94

Multiple max pain levels ($36 then $37) and concentrated OI at $36/$37; close below $35.83 expands downside risk to $35.46.

Next 2 weeks

$35.46$38.31

Term EM widens; structural call wall at $40 caps aggressive upside; sustained break above $38.31 needed to shift to bullish trend.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $36 (2026-04-17); $37 (2026-04-24); $35 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $36.27/$37.50; 1w $35.83/$37.94

Support: $36.00 · $35.00 · $32.00

Resistance: $37.00 · $38.00 · $40.00

Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 124,267 (13.3% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall at $40 (cap); put floor cluster $32–$35 provides longer-term downside support and defines the gamma flip ~ $32.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+159.5M

DEX: +130.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 124,267 (13.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive NTM gamma concentrated at $37 (+$202.3M) and $36 (+$26.4M) — dealers will buy into dips and sell into rallies around these strikes; if spot moves -2% (~$36.15) dealer hedges reduce delta buying; if spot moves +2% (~$37.63) dealer hedges create mild selling pressure but net effect is mean-reversion toward $37.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 28.9% vs VIX 18.36 — options richer than index vol but near-dated IV depressed (3d ATM 24.8%), creating cheapness in very short-dated vs mid-dates.

Term structure: Mildly upward after 24–31d kink: 3d 24.8% → 10d 23.4% → 31d 25.2% → 45d 28.7% (steepening into 45d).

Skew: Skew shows put demand at $32–$37 and elevated mid-dated IV (45d ATM 28.7%); calendar/diagonal selling higher-IV 45d vs buying lower-IV near-term offers ~+4.7 vol-pt edge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Small net negative premium (-$3.1M) — not a strong directional institutional bias.

Directional prints: 21.5 call 38 OTM 2026-04-24 — High prints vol 5,208 vs OI 108 (48.2x) — could be short-dated call buys or spreads; in mixed flow, more likely buy-side call exposure hedging upside. 21.1 call 37.5 OTM 2026-04-17 — Print vol 706 vs OI 228 (3.1x) — near-ATM speculative buys or roll; consistent with pinning toward $37.

Unusual: 21.5 call 38 OTM 2026-04-24 — FXI260424C00038000: 5,208 vol vs OI 108 (48.2x) — clear unusual call flow, likely bought calls or call-heavy structures.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $32 would remove dealer cushioning and accelerate downside moves.

!Expiration clustering around $36–$37 through 4/17–4/24 produces short-term pin unwind risk on expiry day.

!A VIX spike from 18.36 to >25 would widen IVs, hurting short premium and condors.

!Sector/macro reversal (QQQ or SPY pullback) could convert mixed flow into net put buying and breach $35.83 EM guardrail.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	Buy FXI stock at market	Limited upside without leverage; exposed to IV regime and dealer pin unwind
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	Short FXI shares near $37	Dealer delta selling near pins may cap rallies briefly but macro risk can push lower hard past $35
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + Sell 2026-05-29 $38 call	Capped upside at $38; assignment risk if rally exceeds $38
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 $36 put or Sell 2026-04-24 $36/$35 put spread	Gamma into expiry; break below $35 increases assignment risk
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-24 $38 call	IV low in short-dated options and limited upside within EM; expensive theta decay
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-24 $35 put, sell $32 put (if available) — or buy 2026-05-29 $35/$32 put spread	Costs when pin holds; better as hedge vs macro pullback
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 $36/$35 put and $38/$40 call side (defined wings)	IV spike or expiry pin unwind; wings need monitoring around $36–$38
Calendar/diagonal (reverse calendar)	Strong	Sell 2026-05-29 $37 call (IV 28.7%), buy 2026-04-24 $37 call (IV ~23–24%) — reverse calendar (sold longer-dated, buy near-term) with ~4.7 vol-pt edge	Negative carry if near-term vol jumps; requires pin stability and active roll management
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-29 $35 call and sell 2026-04-24 $37 call	Margin & assignment risk; benefits from steep 45d IV and pin stability

Top Plays

45d Diagonal (sell higher-IV longer, buy near-term)

Sell 2026-05-29 $37 call, buy 2026-04-24 $37 call

Exploits vol steepening (sell 45d IV 28.7%, buy 10–17d IV ~23–24% = ~+4.7 vol pts) while aligned with $37 pin; reverse calendar sells long-dated vol that is rich.

Credit: $0.20-$0.60

Max loss: Cost of position if short leg moves ITM and near-term decays unfavorably

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Take partial profits at 50% of realized carry; unwind if spot closes below $35.50 or VIX >25

Traders wanting vol carry and willing to manage roll risk

Short-dated Put Spread (sell protection)

Sell 2026-04-24 $36/$35 put spread

High probability short into the $36 pin with GEX support and tight 10d EM; limited risk if gamma holds.

Credit: $0.12-$0.35

Max loss: $0.88

BE: $35.88

Mgmt: Close at 60% of max profit or if spot < $35.50 or VIX >24

Accounts preferring defined-risk premium collection

Iron Condor (defined short premium around pin)

Sell 2026-04-24 $36/$35 put and $38/$40 call iron condor (wings defined)

Collects premium between EM guardrails $35.83–$37.94 with GEX pin at $37 supporting range-bound outcomes.

Credit: $0.30-$0.70

Max loss: $1.70

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Take 50% profit or hedge/roll if spot trades outside $35.50–$38.25 or VIX >25

Traders with margin capacity seeking short premium

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $37.00 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-24 $36/$35 put spread

IFIf spot remains between $36.27 and $37.50 with VIX <20 → Sell 2026-04-24 $36/$35 put spread or iron condor $36/$35 x $38/$40

IFIf spot rallies to $38.00 and IV term steepness remains (45d ATM 28.7% > 10d ~23%) → Initiate reverse calendar: Sell 2026-05-29 $37 call, buy 2026-04-24 $37 call

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot closes below $35.50 on daily basis → Buy back short put spreads and consider buying 2026-05-29 $35 put for protection

ADJIf VIX rises above 25 and spot inside $36–$38 → Reduce short premium exposure (close condors/put spreads) and re-establish with wider wings into higher IV

Exit Triggers

EXITIf short-dated position reaches 60% of max profit → Close or take partial profits on short premium trades

EXITIf spot breaks and closes above $38.50 on daily basis → Close short call legs (condor/diagonal) and consider rolling up to $40 strikes

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealer pinning around $37 creates mean-reversion and favors short premium and calendar/diagonal structures; invalidation is a sustained close below $35.50 (erodes pin and increases downside). Top plays: reverse calendar (sell 45d, buy near-term) for vol carry, short-dated $36/$35 put spread for defined risk, and iron condor $36/$35 x $38/$40 for balanced short premium.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.