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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $36.46EOD only
Max Pain
$36.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.60
1.7% from close
Price Gap
-0.46
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
1.08
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 13, 2026 close
FXI Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-slight-bearish with a pinning magnet between $36–$37 and downside capped toward the gamma flip near $32; Confidence: 6.0/10 driven by positive GEX pinning and mixed bearish flow.

Confidence:
6 / 10
Base 6.0/10 (pre-computed): +GEX pinning (+1), -GEX/flow contradiction (-1), spot distance from MP +0.5, VIX +0.5; no imminent catalyst to override.
Supports: Largest signals: GEX concentration +$110.9M at $37.00 and +$9.9M at $36.50 (pin magnets), gamma flip ~ $32 (put OI cluster 124,166), Max Pain anchored at $36/$37.
Conflicts: Flow labelled Bearish with net premium $-1.7M and P/C vol 1.60 (put demand), but GEX is positive which encourages mean reversion and pinning; IV avg 30.3% vs VIX 19.12 suggests stock-specific vol premium.
📌GEX pin mass +$110.9M at $37.00 is the dominant short-term magnet.
⚠️Flow = Bearish (net premium $-1.7M) and P/C vol 1.60 — downside appetite exists despite pinning.
🧭Gamma flip ~ $32 is the structural downside; dealer hedging steepens below that level.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal: Avg IV 30.3% with near-term ATM IV at 24.0% (4d) then 30.9% (11d) — short-dated IV bump suggests front-week event sensitivity.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: large NTM positive GEX (+$110.9M at $37.00, +$9.9M at $36.50, +$9.7M at $36.00) which creates a magnet near $36–$37 and favors mean reversion into expiries.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow: Net premium $-1.7M and P/C vol 1.60 indicate institutional put buying/hedging pressure that can push spot lower but may be muted near pin levels.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot $36.46 is above Max Pain ($36 on 4/17, $37 on 4/24) so small downside bias toward the $36–$37 pins.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain pins remain ~$36–$37 across multiple expirations and GEX positive sign persists across near-term expirations (pin concentrations at 36/36.5/37), so trade horizon of 30–45 DTE is preferred with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks
$34.99$37.92
Short expected move ±$0.60 to [$35.85 - $37.06]; hold inside pin unless flow triggers push below $36.00.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $36 (2026-04-17); $37 (2026-04-24); $35 (2026-05-01)
EM guardrails:
Support: $36.00 · $35.00 · $34.00
Resistance: $37.00 · $38.00 · $40.00
Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 124,166 (12.2% below spot)
Structural: Structural layers: Call OI wall concentrated at $40 (33,583 OI) caps upside; put floor and gamma flip cluster $32-$34 (put OI 124,166 at $32, 99,996 at $34) limit long-term downside until gamma flip ~ $32.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+5.1M

DEX: +130.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 124,166 (12.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM positive gamma concentrated at $37.00 (+$110.9M) and $36.50 (+$9.9M) — dealers will sell deltas as spot rallies toward those levels and buy deltas on fades; if spot drops ~2% (~$35.74) dealers reduce call hedges but remain long delta (buying) near $36 which mutes downside; a >10% move toward $32 flips hedging sign and accelerates selling once gamma flip at ~$32 is approached.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 30.3% vs VIX 19.12 — FXI is trading a stock-specific vol premium; short-dated IV depressed to 24.0% (4d) then jumps to 30.9% (11d) indicating front-week demand.

Term structure: Front-week kink: 4/17 ATM IV 24.0% (very low) vs 4/24 ATM IV 30.9% (11d) — steep roll-up into the next expiry; term after 11d flattens 25–28% through June.

Skew: Skew: puts OI concentrated at $32, $34, $35 and cheap call IV at $37 (22.9%) — calendar/diagonal selling near-term higher-IV 5/29 (28.1%) vs lower IV 4/24 (22.9%) shows a 5.2–6 pt differential depending on exact ATM levels.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $-1.7M (bearish), P/C Volume Ratio 1.60 and P/C OI 1.08 indicate put-heavy flows.

Directional prints: 22.9 put 36 OTM 2026-04-17 — Large traded premium at $36 strikes (top premium flow: $36 call $1,929,451 / put $2,637,387 net -$707,936) — could be buy-to-open puts or sell-to-open hedges; interpretation leans to put buying given P/C vol 1.60. 22.9 call 37 OTM 2026-04-24 — Heavy call OI at $37 (91,179 OI) and large GEX mass; flows into $37 show market makers positioned to pin — could be call sell-side or buy-side positioning; behavior favors sell-side calls/mainly pinning.

Unusual: 129.7 call 51 OTM 2026-04-17 — Unusual long-dated outlier: FXI260417C00051000 vol 210 vs OI 105, IV 129.7% — likely speculative asymmetric bet, ignore for directional hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $32 would flip dealer hedging and accelerate downside; breach invalidates range trades.
!Front-week IV kink: 4/17 ATM IV 24.0% vs 4/24 30.9% — sharp roll/expiry can produce vol dislocation around 4/17.
!Bearish flow/net premium $-1.7M and P/C vol 1.60 can overwhelm pin if macro turns risk-off (SPY/QQQ reversal).
!Large call OI at $37 and call wall $40 create asymmetric risk if a short-covering rally spikes IV.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockModerate-WeakBuy FXI stock at $36.46Pin holds and puts pressure — limited edge given bearish flow
Short stockModerateShort FXI at market / add into rallies to $37.00GEX pinning at $37 may create mean-reversion squeezes if short-term dealers buy back deltas
Covered callModerate-WeakBuy stock + sell 2026-05-29 37.00 callCap to $37 and call OI/call GEX may be exercised; limited premium vs directional risk
Cash-secured put / put spreadModerate-StrongSell 2026-04-24 $35.00/$34.00 put spreadBreak below $34 (near gamma flip path) accelerates losses
Long callsWeakBuy 2026-04-24 $38.00 callIV crush and calls expensive vs downward flow
Long puts / bear put spreadModerateBuy 2026-04-24 $36.00 put, sell $34.00 put (bear put spread)Pinning around $36–$37 reduces downside; limited if gamma flip not triggered
Iron condorModerate-StrongSell 2026-05-29 34.00/32.00 put x 38.00/40.00 callLarge move below $32 or above $40 (structural walls) will blow up the wings
Calendar / diagonalModerate-StrongSell 2026-05-29 37.00 call (ATM, IV 28.1%), buy 2026-04-24 37.00 call (near-term IV 22.9%) — reverse calendar (sold longer-dated leg); vol differential +5.2 pts (sell 28.1%, buy 22.9%).Selling longer-dated higher-IV leg exposes to term roll and assignment risk; requires active management
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerateSell 2026-05-29 37.00 call, buy 2027-02-19 37.00 call (use longer-dated call as protection)Term-structure and assignment risk; requires stock purchase or collateral

Top Plays

#1
Sell 4/24 $34/$32 put butterfly (defined-risk short premium)
Sell 2026-04-24 34.00 put, buy 32.00 & 35.00 puts as wings (fly)
Trade captures pinning to $36–$37 while harvesting short premium where GEX is positive; wings sit just inside expected move lower bound ($34.99) and gamma flip is still well below at $32.
Credit: $0.20-$0.35
Max loss: $1.80
BE: Profit zone centered at 34.00
Mgmt: Take 60% of max profit; cut at 30% of max loss or if spot < $34.00 for 2 consecutive 60-min bars
Traders wanting defined short-premium with limited risk
#2
Sell 4/24 $35/$34 put spread (tactical, weekly-ish premium)
Sell 2026-04-24 35.00 put, buy 34.00 put
High-prob defined credit trade aligned with pin at $36–$37 and heavy put OI at $35/$36; benefits from positive GEX and short-dated IV elevation to 30.9%.
Credit: $0.40-$0.65
Max loss: $0.60
BE: $34.60
Mgmt: Take 50-70% profit; cut if spot <$34.00 or VIX spikes >25
Active traders seeking quick premium
#3
30–45 DTE Iron Condor (primary multi-week trade)
Sell 2026-05-29 34.00/32.00 put x 38.00/40.00 call
Multi-week pick: sells premium into positive GEX pinning and benefits from term structure where 30–45d IV (28.1% at 46d) is higher than far-dated; wings align with EM bounds and structural call wall at $40.
Credit: $0.90-$1.40
Max loss: $5.10
BE: Lower BE ~33.10 / Upper BE ~41.10
Mgmt: Take 50% profit; roll or hedge if spot < $34.00 or > $38.00 or if IV collapses >6 pts
Accounts wanting yield with defined risk and time to weather short-term flow

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot tags $37.00 and holds <15 min → Sell 2026-04-24 35.00/34.00 put spread
IFIf spot fades to $35.00 and intraday VWAP < $35.00 → Sell 2026-04-24 35.00/34.00 put spread or buy 2026-04-24 36.00/34.00 bear put spread
IFIf spot rallies to $38.00 with IV decline >2 vol pts → Sell 2026-05-29 38.00/40.00 call spread as part of iron condor
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf spot < $34.00 for 2 consecutive 60-min bars → Close short put spreads and convert to long 32.00/34.00 call diagonal or roll puts down to 32/30 wings (buy protection)
ADJIf VIX rises above 25 or IV term front-week 4/17 > 30% → Take off short near-dated premium and switch to long-dated diagonals (buy protection)
Exit Triggers
EXITIf short premium P/L reaches 60% of max profit → Take profits and reduce size
EXITIf spot < $32.00 (gamma flip) → Exit all short premium and buy protective put spreads 32.00/30.00

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short premium/range trades favored into $36–$37 pin with multi-week horizon (30–45 DTE); invalidation is sustained break below $34.00 leading to $32 gamma flip. Top plays: 4/24 35/34 put spread (tactical), 4/24 34/32 put fly (defined-risk), 5/29 34/32 x 38/40 iron condor (multi-week).

Read the Directional analysis for FXI for 2026-04-13. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.