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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $35.05EOD only

Max Pain

$35.00

Next expiry Jun 5, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.77

2.2% from close

Price Gap

-0.05

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.86

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

FXI Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-slight-bearish with a pinning magnet between $36–$37 and downside capped toward the gamma flip near $32; Confidence: 6.0/10 driven by positive GEX pinning and mixed bearish flow.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 6.0/10 (pre-computed): +GEX pinning (+1), -GEX/flow contradiction (-1), spot distance from MP +0.5, VIX +0.5; no imminent catalyst to override.

Supports: Largest signals: GEX concentration +$110.9M at $37.00 and +$9.9M at $36.50 (pin magnets), gamma flip ~ $32 (put OI cluster 124,166), Max Pain anchored at $36/$37.
Conflicts: Flow labelled Bearish with net premium $-1.7M and P/C vol 1.60 (put demand), but GEX is positive which encourages mean reversion and pinning; IV avg 30.3% vs VIX 19.12 suggests stock-specific vol premium.

📌GEX pin mass +$110.9M at $37.00 is the dominant short-term magnet.

⚠️Flow = Bearish (net premium $-1.7M) and P/C vol 1.60 — downside appetite exists despite pinning.

🧭Gamma flip ~ $32 is the structural downside; dealer hedging steepens below that level.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal: Avg IV 30.3% with near-term ATM IV at 24.0% (4d) then 30.9% (11d) — short-dated IV bump suggests front-week event sensitivity.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large NTM positive GEX (+$110.9M at $37.00, +$9.9M at $36.50, +$9.7M at $36.00) which creates a magnet near $36–$37 and favors mean reversion into expiries.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Bearish flow: Net premium $-1.7M and P/C vol 1.60 indicate institutional put buying/hedging pressure that can push spot lower but may be muted near pin levels.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $36.46 is above Max Pain ($36 on 4/17, $37 on 4/24) so small downside bias toward the $36–$37 pins.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain pins remain ~$36–$37 across multiple expirations and GEX positive sign persists across near-term expirations (pin concentrations at 36/36.5/37), so trade horizon of 30–45 DTE is preferred with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$34.99$37.92

Short expected move ±$0.60 to [$35.85 - $37.06]; hold inside pin unless flow triggers push below $36.00.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $36 (2026-04-17); $37 (2026-04-24); $35 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails:

Support: $36.00 · $35.00 · $34.00

Resistance: $37.00 · $38.00 · $40.00

Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 124,166 (12.2% below spot)

Structural: Structural layers: Call OI wall concentrated at $40 (33,583 OI) caps upside; put floor and gamma flip cluster $32-$34 (put OI 124,166 at $32, 99,996 at $34) limit long-term downside until gamma flip ~ $32.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+5.1M

DEX: +130.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$32 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 124,166 (12.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM positive gamma concentrated at $37.00 (+$110.9M) and $36.50 (+$9.9M) — dealers will sell deltas as spot rallies toward those levels and buy deltas on fades; if spot drops ~2% (~$35.74) dealers reduce call hedges but remain long delta (buying) near $36 which mutes downside; a >10% move toward $32 flips hedging sign and accelerates selling once gamma flip at ~$32 is approached.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 30.3% vs VIX 19.12 — FXI is trading a stock-specific vol premium; short-dated IV depressed to 24.0% (4d) then jumps to 30.9% (11d) indicating front-week demand.

Term structure: Front-week kink: 4/17 ATM IV 24.0% (very low) vs 4/24 ATM IV 30.9% (11d) — steep roll-up into the next expiry; term after 11d flattens 25–28% through June.

Skew: Skew: puts OI concentrated at $32, $34, $35 and cheap call IV at $37 (22.9%) — calendar/diagonal selling near-term higher-IV 5/29 (28.1%) vs lower IV 4/24 (22.9%) shows a 5.2–6 pt differential depending on exact ATM levels.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $-1.7M (bearish), P/C Volume Ratio 1.60 and P/C OI 1.08 indicate put-heavy flows.

Directional prints: 22.9 put 36 OTM 2026-04-17 — Large traded premium at $36 strikes (top premium flow: $36 call $1,929,451 / put $2,637,387 net -$707,936) — could be buy-to-open puts or sell-to-open hedges; interpretation leans to put buying given P/C vol 1.60. 22.9 call 37 OTM 2026-04-24 — Heavy call OI at $37 (91,179 OI) and large GEX mass; flows into $37 show market makers positioned to pin — could be call sell-side or buy-side positioning; behavior favors sell-side calls/mainly pinning.

Unusual: 129.7 call 51 OTM 2026-04-17 — Unusual long-dated outlier: FXI260417C00051000 vol 210 vs OI 105, IV 129.7% — likely speculative asymmetric bet, ignore for directional hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $32 would flip dealer hedging and accelerate downside; breach invalidates range trades.

!Front-week IV kink: 4/17 ATM IV 24.0% vs 4/24 30.9% — sharp roll/expiry can produce vol dislocation around 4/17.

!Bearish flow/net premium $-1.7M and P/C vol 1.60 can overwhelm pin if macro turns risk-off (SPY/QQQ reversal).

!Large call OI at $37 and call wall $40 create asymmetric risk if a short-covering rally spikes IV.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy FXI stock at $36.46	Pin holds and puts pressure — limited edge given bearish flow
Short stock	Moderate	Short FXI at market / add into rallies to $37.00	GEX pinning at $37 may create mean-reversion squeezes if short-term dealers buy back deltas
Covered call	Moderate-Weak	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-29 37.00 call	Cap to $37 and call OI/call GEX may be exercised; limited premium vs directional risk
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 $35.00/$34.00 put spread	Break below $34 (near gamma flip path) accelerates losses
Long calls	Weak	Buy 2026-04-24 $38.00 call	IV crush and calls expensive vs downward flow
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-24 $36.00 put, sell $34.00 put (bear put spread)	Pinning around $36–$37 reduces downside; limited if gamma flip not triggered
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-29 34.00/32.00 put x 38.00/40.00 call	Large move below $32 or above $40 (structural walls) will blow up the wings
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-29 37.00 call (ATM, IV 28.1%), buy 2026-04-24 37.00 call (near-term IV 22.9%) — reverse calendar (sold longer-dated leg); vol differential +5.2 pts (sell 28.1%, buy 22.9%).	Selling longer-dated higher-IV leg exposes to term roll and assignment risk; requires active management
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 37.00 call, buy 2027-02-19 37.00 call (use longer-dated call as protection)	Term-structure and assignment risk; requires stock purchase or collateral

Top Plays

Sell 4/24 $34/$32 put butterfly (defined-risk short premium)

Sell 2026-04-24 34.00 put, buy 32.00 & 35.00 puts as wings (fly)

Trade captures pinning to $36–$37 while harvesting short premium where GEX is positive; wings sit just inside expected move lower bound ($34.99) and gamma flip is still well below at $32.

Credit: $0.20-$0.35

Max loss: $1.80

BE: Profit zone centered at 34.00

Mgmt: Take 60% of max profit; cut at 30% of max loss or if spot < $34.00 for 2 consecutive 60-min bars

Traders wanting defined short-premium with limited risk

Sell 4/24 $35/$34 put spread (tactical, weekly-ish premium)

Sell 2026-04-24 35.00 put, buy 34.00 put

High-prob defined credit trade aligned with pin at $36–$37 and heavy put OI at $35/$36; benefits from positive GEX and short-dated IV elevation to 30.9%.

Credit: $0.40-$0.65

Max loss: $0.60

BE: $34.60

Mgmt: Take 50-70% profit; cut if spot <$34.00 or VIX spikes >25

Active traders seeking quick premium

30–45 DTE Iron Condor (primary multi-week trade)

Sell 2026-05-29 34.00/32.00 put x 38.00/40.00 call

Multi-week pick: sells premium into positive GEX pinning and benefits from term structure where 30–45d IV (28.1% at 46d) is higher than far-dated; wings align with EM bounds and structural call wall at $40.

Credit: $0.90-$1.40

Max loss: $5.10

BE: Lower BE ~33.10 / Upper BE ~41.10

Mgmt: Take 50% profit; roll or hedge if spot < $34.00 or > $38.00 or if IV collapses >6 pts

Accounts wanting yield with defined risk and time to weather short-term flow

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $37.00 and holds <15 min → Sell 2026-04-24 35.00/34.00 put spread

IFIf spot fades to $35.00 and intraday VWAP < $35.00 → Sell 2026-04-24 35.00/34.00 put spread or buy 2026-04-24 36.00/34.00 bear put spread

IFIf spot rallies to $38.00 with IV decline >2 vol pts → Sell 2026-05-29 38.00/40.00 call spread as part of iron condor

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot < $34.00 for 2 consecutive 60-min bars → Close short put spreads and convert to long 32.00/34.00 call diagonal or roll puts down to 32/30 wings (buy protection)

ADJIf VIX rises above 25 or IV term front-week 4/17 > 30% → Take off short near-dated premium and switch to long-dated diagonals (buy protection)

Exit Triggers

EXITIf short premium P/L reaches 60% of max profit → Take profits and reduce size

EXITIf spot < $32.00 (gamma flip) → Exit all short premium and buy protective put spreads 32.00/30.00

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short premium/range trades favored into $36–$37 pin with multi-week horizon (30–45 DTE); invalidation is sustained break below $34.00 leading to $32 gamma flip. Top plays: 4/24 35/34 put spread (tactical), 4/24 34/32 put fly (defined-risk), 5/29 34/32 x 38/40 iron condor (multi-week).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.