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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $142.52EOD only
Max Pain
$167.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.80
3.4% from close
Price Gap
+24.98
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.87
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
COIN Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

COIN is in a bearish trending regime with high vol, negative dealer gamma, and bearish flow. Spot below max pain ($158) and EM guardrails, with key support at 133.26. Dealer positioning favors downside as long as spot stays below $155-$160 resistance. Bias bearish 1-2 weeks, targeting support $133-$138.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow alignment (bearish); -1 spot 5.4% below MP; +0.5 VIX 18 (elevated vol).
Supports: Bearish flow, dealer gamma -$9.6M (short gamma), spot below MP, high vol.
Conflicts: Spot far from gamma flip ~$125, deep support at 133.26, VIX not extreme.
🔻Bearish flow and dealer short gamma create downside pressure.
📉Spot trapped below $158 max pain; resistance overhead.
⚠️High vol regime sustains IV premium; decay possible if spot stabilizes.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV relative to 20-day range; VIX 18 supports elevated premium.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Dealer gamma negative at -$9.6M; net short gamma amplifies directional moves, favoring downside while spot remains below resistance.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Net premium from put buying; 1.35 P/C ratio confirms bearish sentiment.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot $147 vs MP $158; 5.4% below, pinning resistance.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained bearish flow, dealer short gamma structure, and spot below key levels suggest multi-week pressure absent catalyst.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$138.28$159.83
Target low end $138.28; resistance $155.
Next 2 weeks
$133.26$164.86
Support $133.26; resistance $160.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $158 (2026-06-26); $150 (2026-07-02); $155 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 1w $138.28/$159.83
Support: $133.26
Resistance: $155.00 · $157.50 · $160.00
Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,509 (16.1% below spot)
Structural: Support 133.26; resistance 155/157.5/160; max pain $158; gamma flip ~$125.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-9.6M

DEX: +25.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$125 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,509 (16.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$9.6M, DEX +25.5M shares, gamma flip ~$125 (put OI concentration).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: COIN IV ~90% vs VIX 18, rich vs sector; implies premium pricing for crypto vol.

Term structure: Backwardated near-term with kinks around 06/26 and 07/02; vol decays into expiries.

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling put spreads or iron condors on high IV may capture decay if spot stabilizes.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$69.7M, put/call vol ratio 1.25, bearish overall despite heavy call activity.

Directional prints: 82.2 call 146 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 15.8, aggressive call buying, bullish. 34.2 put 147 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 7.3, increased put activity, bearish.

Unusual: 14.6 call 150 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 5474, OI 685, massive cheap call buying. 27 call 149 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 9.6, low IV, speculative call. 50 put 139 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 7.2, deep OTM put, defensive.

Risks & Catalysts

!Upward catalyst from crypto news/regulatory shifts.
!Spot bounce from dealer hedging at gamma flip $125.
!Short squeeze if spot breaks above $155 resistance.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $155.00/$130.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk debit spread profits from downside while limiting cost.
Spot rallies above short strike, breaching spread.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $135.00 put
Why now: Direct downside convexity with limited capital at risk.
Time decay and volatility contraction if spot stalls.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-31 $155.00/$130.00 put spread
Profits from moderate downside with limited capital at risk.
Why this play: Best fits bearish thesis targeting $133-$138, defined risk, higher probability.
Debit: $9.83-$12.02
Max loss: $12.02
BE: $142.98
Mgmt: Set stop if spot breaks $155; take profit at 50% of max or expiration.
Traders seeking defined risk with high probability.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-31 $135.00 put
Benefits from sharp selloff or volatility expansion.
Why this play: Offers direct downside convexity but requires larger move below $128 to profit.
Debit: $7.13-$8.72
Max loss: $8.72
BE: $126.28
Mgmt: Manage delta; consider rolling or closing if spot stays above $145.
Aggressive traders expecting significant decline.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFCOIN spot price breaks below support $133.26. → Buy 2026-07-31 $155.00/$130.00 put spread.
IFCOIN spot price rallies to $155.00-$157.50 resistance and shows rejection (closes below range). → Buy 2026-07-31 $155.00/$130.00 put spread.
Exit Triggers
EXITCOIN spot price closes above $155.00. → Close all bear put spread and long put positions.

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias 1-2 weeks as long as spot stays below $155 resistance. Key support $133.26; break lower targets $125 gamma flip. Favor Bear Put Spread for defined risk. Enter on breakdown below support or rejection at resistance. Exit if spot reclaims $155.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.