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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $159.78EOD only

Max Pain

$167.50

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$11.12

7.0% from close

Price Gap

+7.72

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

COIN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias into Jun18 expiry on positive gamma pinning and DEX long delta, but neutral-to-bearish beyond due to downside hedging and gamma flip risk. Confidence 6.5/10.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; +1 GEX positive pinning; +0.5 spot 1.3% above MP; +1 VIX 16; -1 GEX/flow contradict; net 6.5.

Supports: Positive gamma, DEX +28.8M shares, spot above MP, VIX 16.2 moderate.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, put OI concentration 26.3% OTM below spot.

📌Max pain $168 pinning for Jun18 expiry

⚡Gamma flip ~$125 based on put OI concentration

📈SPY/QQQ strong rally (1.76%/3.14%) supports bullish

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV high relative to typical; VIX 16.2 supports elevated vol.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$22.6M, pinning near max pain $168 for Jun18 expiry.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium; put OI concentration deep below spot suggests downside hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~1.3% above max pain, indicating mild bullish drift.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Price action driven by Jun18 options expiry and gamma pinning near $168.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$159.94$179.29

Gamma pinning near $168, spot above MP.

Next 2 weeks

$149.94$189.29

Support $149.94, resistance $189.29; gamma flip risk.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $168 (2026-06-18); $165 (2026-06-26); $165 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $159.94/$179.29

Support: $167.50 · $149.94

Resistance: $170.00 · $189.29

Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (26.3% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $168 (Jun18), $165 (Jun26, Jul2); Gamma flip ~$125; Support $167.5, $149.94; Resistance $170, $189.29.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+22.6M

DEX: +28.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$125 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (26.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$22.6M (positive gamma), DEX +28.8M shares (long delta), gamma flip at ~$125 based on put OI.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV rich vs VIX 16.2; elevated ahead of expiry, but inline with high vol regime.

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to event; back-month contango suggests event premium decay.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider short vega plays post-expiry.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net negative premium (-$79.8M) with call-heavy volume (P/C vol 0.56) but call-heavy OI (0.76), reflecting bearish premium flow amid mixed sentiment.

Directional prints: 75.5 call 240 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol 10,711 vs OI 2,121 (ratio 5.0), high volume suggests aggressive buying. Likely bought to open, bullish bet on upside. 68.5 call 190 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 3,684 vs OI 559 (ratio 6.6), heavy call buying. Likely bought, signaling near-term bullish expectation.

Unusual: 104.3 put 100 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 1,120 vs OI 269 (ratio 4.2), deep OTM put with elevated IV. Unusual bearish speculation or hedge. 361.9 put 340 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 753 vs OI 288 (ratio 2.6), massive IV (362%) on deep ITM put. Likely sold or spread, highly unusual. 79.1 call 192.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 1,121 vs OI 225 (ratio 5.0), repeated call buying at near strike. Unusual concentration.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot reversal below $168 could accelerate to gamma flip at $125.

!Flow mixed may cap upside above $170 resistance.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-02 $155.00/$145.00 put spread Why now: Bullish near-term but neutral later; put credit spread captures premium with defined risk, aligning with event-specific duration.	If spot drops below short strike, spread moves ITM; limited loss but max loss defined by width.
Call diagonal	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-02 $170.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $175.00 call Why now: Thesis expects near-term bullish but neutral later; calendar benefits from front-month theta and back-month gamma if upside continues.	If spot moves significantly against short call, position loses; max loss if both expire worthless.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-02 $170.00/$185.00 call spread Why now: Near-term bullish bias aligns with bull call spread; defined risk and capital efficiency.	Max loss is net debit; upside capped at short strike; time decay works against if move is slow.

Top Plays

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-02 $155.00/$145.00 put spread

Sell put spread to collect premium with limited downside.

Why this play: Aligns with near-term bullish bias and defined risk, capturing premium while neutral later.

Credit: $1.78-$2.17

Max loss: $7.83

BE: $152.83

Mgmt: Monitor invalidation at $167.5; consider early close at 50% max gain.

Event-specific duration with moderate confidence.

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-07-02 $170.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $175.00 call

Sell front-month call, buy back-month call.

Why this play: Captures front-month theta and back-month gamma if upside continues, but longer-term bearish view may limit upside.

Debit: $1.24-$1.51

Max loss: $1.51

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Roll if spot breaks invalidation; watch theta decay.

Trader expecting near-term rally but willing to manage gamma risk.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-02 $170.00/$185.00 call spread

Buy lower strike call, sell higher strike call.

Why this play: Least aligned due to neutral-to-bearish later; but defined risk if near-term rally.

Debit: $4.68-$5.72

Max loss: $5.72

BE: $175.72

Mgmt: Exit if spot stays below $170 at expiry; manage early.

Aggressive near-term bullish view with defined loss.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $167.5 support or dips to $167.5 and holds, THEN enter Put Credit Spread (COIN-PCS-01) at entry range 1.78-2.17 credit → Sell 2026-06-18 $155/$145 put spread; target 50% max gain; invalidation below $167.5

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF spot stays between $167.5 and $170 for 2 days, THEN maintain PCS; consider rolling if volatility drops → Hold; no adjustment unless invalidation

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below $167.5, THEN close PCS immediately to limit loss to max debit → Buy back the put spread at market

EXITIF spot rallies above $170 and stalls, THEN close PCS for profit before expiry; or close early if 50% max gain achieved → Close PCS at market or target profit

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias into Jun18 expiry, neutral-bearish later. Key support $167.5, resistance $170. Max pain $168 (Jun18). Top play: Put Credit Spread (PCS) to collect premium with defined risk. Invalidation below $167.5. Target 50% gain or early close near resistance. Monitor gamma flip risk at $125.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.