COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $164.84EOD onlyThis page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
Outlook
Bearish bias near-term due to negative dealer gamma and spot below max pain. VIX elevated supports defense but event-specific OPEX pins at 165-168 may cap rallies. Confidence 6.5.
Conflicts: Mixed flow; VIX elevated may indicate hedging demand. Structural support at 139.8 could hold.
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $-5.5M
DEX: +24.5M shares
Gamma flip: ~$125 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,509 (21.0% below spot))
NTM gamma: GEX -$5.5M (negative gamma), DEX +24.5M shares; dealers long delta but hedging amplifies trends; gamma flip ~$125.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: IV elevated relative to VIX 19.49; implies high single-stock vol expectation.
Term structure: Front-end elevated with OPEX events; likely steep backwardation into June 26 and July 2.
Skew: Put skew rich; consider selling puts at support levels or call spreads for upside.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Net premium is -$26.9M, put/call volume ratio 0.55, indicating bearish flow despite higher call volume.
Directional prints: 66.5 call 165 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 18.4, heavy volume vs low OI suggests new bullish buying of near-the-money calls. 66.7 call 172.5 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 8.4, likely aggressive bullish positioning in OTM calls. 66.6 call 170 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 5.6, consistent with bullish sentiment in weekly calls.
Unusual: 239.8 put 5 OTM 2026-12-18 — Deep OTM put with extraordinary IV 239.8%, vol/OI 3.6; could be speculative downside hedge or lottery ticket. 422.7 call 75 ITM 2026-06-26 — Deep ITM call with extreme IV 422.7%, vol/OI 2.4; unusual activity possibly closing or rolling deep ITM position. 64.6 put 157.5 OTM 2026-07-02 — OTM put with vol/OI 3.0, moderately unusual; could be defensive buying against downside.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear put spread | Moderate-Strong | Buy 2026-07-31 $160.00/$140.00 put spread Why now: Defined-risk debit spread profits from downside move; aligns with bearish bias and event-specific duration. | Gap risk below 139.8 support; theta decay if flat after earnings. |
| Long put | Moderate | Buy 2026-07-31 $145.00 put Why now: Low cost, high gamma near earnings; defined downside with unlimited upside risk (bearish). | Time decay if move delayed; gap risk below support; high IV may overprice. |
Top Plays
Watchlist Triggers
Tactical Summary
Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.
Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.
These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.