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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $191.29EOD only
Max Pain
$192.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.47
4.4% from close
Price Gap
+1.21
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
6
Low premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
COIN Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Reverse calendar spread targeting May 8 volatility hump
Invalidation: Spot moves >±5% from chosen strike, or IV differential collapses prematurely
Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +1 high IV; +1 pinning; +1 term structure anomaly; -1 mixed flow

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV 81.7% — extremely elevated with term structure anomalies
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Significant hump: May 8 (32 DTE) IV 78.3% vs. June 18 (73 DTE) IV 73.5% (~5 vol-point differential)

📈Volatility hump at May 8 expiration offers clear edge for reverse calendars
💰High IV across curve provides rich premium for all selling strategies

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above by 2.8% (spot $174.79 vs 4/10 max pain $170)

GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$15.6M)

Gamma flip: ~$170.00 — Below $170, dealers amplify downward moves

OI concentrations: Call wall $170 (14,206 OI), put wall $170 (7,151 OI), call wall $185 (7,519 OI)

Verdict: Favorable — strong positive GEX and multiple pin magnets support range-bound price action, beneficial for non-directional spreads

Premium Opportunities

#1
reverse calendar spread
Sell $175 call 5/08 (32 DTE, IV 78.3%), buy $175 call 6/18 (73 DTE, IV 73.5%)
Direct play on the volatility hump: >4 vol-point differential between expirations. Profits from accelerated theta decay of the short, higher-IV option and IV convergence. Strike at $175 aligns with pin magnet (max pain 4/24) and positive GEX (+$2.7M).
Credit: $3.50-$4.00
Max loss: $6.50
BE: $178.50
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; exit if IV differential narrows to <2 vol points; roll short leg if price moves beyond $182.50
#2
put spread
Sell $170/$165 put spread 4/24 (18 DTE)
Pinning regime with $170 as strongest GEX magnet (+$4.6M). Short strike at max pain and gamma flip provides support. High IV (71.3%) yields attractive credit.
Credit: $2.12-$2.22
Max loss: $2.78
BE: $167.88
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit; exit if price closes below $170; roll down/out if $165 tested
#3
iron condor
Sell $170/$165P x $185/$190C 4/24 (18 DTE)
Captures pinning between $170 (put wall) and $185 (call wall). Both wings outside expected move ($152.71-$196.86). Positive GEX at both strikes supports range.
Credit: $3.90-$4.40
Max loss: $1.10
BE: 168.90/186.10
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; adjust if either short strike breached; manage winners early in high IV
#4
covered call
Buy 100 shares at $174.79, sell $185 call 4/24 (18 DTE)
High IV (71.3%) boosts call premium. Strike above call OI wall at $185 with positive GEX (+$2.9M). Provides 5.8% upside capture plus 1.1% premium.
Credit: $1.92-$1.99
Max loss: $172.80
BE: $172.87
Mgmt: Close call at 65% profit; roll up/out if price approaches $185; consider closing entire position below $170

Risk Alerts

!Earnings 5/07 — close all positions before announcement (5 weeks out)
!Gamma flip at $170 — breach could trigger accelerated selling
!Mixed flow with net premium -$64.2M suggests institutional selling pressure
!VIX not provided but IV >80% indicates elevated market stress
!Unusual activity: large ITM call volume at $170 (12,135 vol) suggests directional bets
!Reverse calendar spread risk: IV differential may collapse if volatility normalizes unevenly
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.