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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $159.78EOD only

Max Pain

$167.50

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$11.12

7.0% from close

Price Gap

+7.72

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

COIN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

COIN consolidates near max pain $160 into 6/12 expiry; dealer gamma long pins spot; high vol suggests uncertainty, bias neutral with near-term pinning and bearish tilt over 2 weeks.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive pinning; +1 spot at MP; +1 VIX 18. Net +2.

Supports: Spot at max pain $160; dealer net long gamma $7.7M; 1w guardrails $148.65-$170.90.
Conflicts: Mixed flow; high IV above VIX; resistance $167.5 and $170.

📌Max pain $160 pins 6/12 expiry; dealer gamma long keeps spot anchored.

⚡High vol elevated vs VIX; risk of vol expansion triggering range breakout.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs VIX 17.68; high implied vol for COIN.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Dealer net long gamma $7.7M (1.4x avg); gamma flip deep at $125; pinning at $160.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow with no clear directional bias; call/put premium balanced.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $160 max pain for 6/12 expiry; pinning likely.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Options expiry on 6/12; max pain and dealer gamma create pin; high vol for event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$148.65$170.90

Gamma pinning to $160; range $148.65-$170.90.

Next 2 weeks

$143.00$176.55

Resistance $167.5-$170; gamma flip $125 downside risk.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $160 (2026-06-12); $168 (2026-06-18); $170 (2026-06-26)

EM guardrails: 1w $148.65/$170.90

Support: $143.00

Resistance: $160.00 · $167.50 · $170.00

Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (21.8% below spot)

Structural: Support: 143; resistance: 160 (6/12 MP), 167.5, 170 (6/26 MP); 1w guardrails $148.65-$170.90; gamma flip ~$125.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+7.7M

DEX: +29.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$125 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (21.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net long gamma $+7.7M; DEX +29.3M shares; gamma flip at ~$125 (deep put OI).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: COIN IV rich vs VIX 17.68; premium pricing event risk.

Term structure: Contango with kinks at weekly expiries; near-term elevated.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider upside call spreads if bullish bias confirmed.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$121M bearish, but call volume dominates (P/C vol 0.62) and OI ratio 0.74; mixed signal with large put premium from high IV.

Directional prints: 15.6 call 162.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 8.1x OI; heavy buying of OTM call expiring today, likely bullish bet or closing. 65.9 call 172.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 12.8x OI; aggressive buying of OTM call, bullish directional. 62.1 put 157.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 7.5x OI; buying of OTM put, bearish hedge or speculation.

Unusual: 250.1 put 290 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 3.5x OI; deep ITM put with extreme IV, likely bearish roll or hedge. 309.1 put 340 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 3.5x OI; deep ITM put with extreme IV, similar pattern. 196.6 put 250 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 3.4x OI; deep ITM put with high IV, anomalous put activity.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below gamma flip $125 could trigger dealer de-hedging.

!Resistance $170 caps upside.

!High vol may attract sellers.

!Mixed flow indicates indecision.

!High IV may signal impending vol expansion and range break.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-02 $160.00/$155.00 put spread Why now: Sell put credit spread: buy 160p sell 150p on 7/2 expiry to capture short-term bearish move with defined risk.	Upside rally above 160 due to earnings optimism or gamma squeeze.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-08-21 $145.00/$130.00 put wing and $200.00/$220.00 call wing Why now: Sell iron condor on 8/21 expiry: short 170c/150p, buy 180c/145p to capture time decay and vol crush with wings outside expected move.	Large post-earnings gap beyond 145-180 range; IV spike could cause early loss.

Top Plays

Bearish Near-Term Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-02 $160.00/$155.00 put spread

Buy 160p, sell 155p on 7/2 expiry to profit from a bearish move while limiting loss.

Why this play: Aligns with neutral/bearish tilt over 2 weeks and near-term pinning; defined risk captures downside without vega exposure.

Debit: $2.20-$2.69

Max loss: $2.69

BE: $157.31

Mgmt: Exit if COIN breaks above $160 or near expiry if profit target hit; roll if thesis changes.

Traders expecting moderate downside with defined risk.

Neutral Volatility Capture

Sell 2026-08-21 $145.00/$130.00 put wing and $200.00/$220.00 call wing

Sell 145p/200c wings on 8/21 expiry to collect premium in range-bound stock.

Why this play: Suits neutral bias with high vol; time decay benefits but less directional conviction than put spread.

Credit: $7.60-$9.29

Max loss: $10.71

BE: 135.71 / 209.29

Mgmt: Adjust wings if stock approaches strikes; close near 50% max gain.

Traders expecting low movement and vol contraction.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFCOIN breaks below $143 support. → Enter the 7/2 160/155 bear put spread (buy 160p, sell 155p).

IFCOIN holds within 1w guardrails $148.65–$170.90 and vol remains elevated. → Sell the 8/21 iron condor: short 145p/200c, long 130p/220c.

Exit Triggers

EXITCOIN moves above $160 for bear put spread. → Exit the bear put spread position.

Tactical Summary

Near-term bearish via put spread if support breaks; neutral via iron condor in range. Manage exits at invalidation levels.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.