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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $158.18EOD only

Max Pain

$167.50

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.90

5.6% from close

Price Gap

+9.32

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.88

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 23, 2026 close

COIN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-bearish bias as spot below max pain ($168) and dealers net short gamma (-$15.9M). High vol regime supports momentum but mixed flow limits conviction. Confidence 6.5/10.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow alignment -1 spot 10.4% below MP +0.5 VIX 18.6 = 6.5.

Supports: GEX/flow alignment, high vol regime
Conflicts: Spot below MP, resistance at 160

⚠️Spot below max pain $168 bearish pin risk

📉Dealers net short gamma -$15.9M amplifies moves

📊VIX 18.6 moderate, COIN vol high

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV high, typical for COIN amid crypto volatility.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending gamma with negative GEX hinting directional hedging.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow, but GEX/flow alignment suggests bearish tilt.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain levels ($168, $162, $155) – bearish pin risk.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol and dealer positioning imply structural bearish pressure beyond single event; max pain extends to Jul 10.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$142.69$157.54

EM guardrails $142.69-$157.54; spot below MP

Next 1 week

$136.89$163.34

Wider range $136.89-$163.34; potential bounce

Next 2 weeks

$132.44$167.79

Support $132.44; gamma flip risk at $125

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $168 (2026-06-26); $162 (2026-07-02); $155 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $142.69/$157.54; 1w $136.89/$163.34

Support: $132.44

Resistance: $160.00 · $167.79

Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,507 (16.7% below spot)

Structural: Support $132.44; resistance $160, $167.79; gamma flip ~$125; max pain pins $168 (6/26), $162 (7/2), $155 (7/10).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-15.9M

DEX: +25.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$125 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,507 (16.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$15.9M negative gamma, DEX +25.7M long delta. Gamma flip ~$125 from put OI. Dealers net short gamma amplifying movement.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: COIN IV likely rich vs VIX 18.6 given high vol regime.

Term structure: Assume steep contango due to upcoming expiries and event risk.

Skew: Skew favors puts; consider put verticals if bearish thesis holds.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative at -$51.4M with P/C vol ratio 0.95, indicating bearish flow.

Directional prints: 70.6 call 155 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 86.5: aggressive call buying, likely opening. Bullish if bought; preferred bullish. 67.8 put 148 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 9.5: put buying for downside. Bearish if bought; preferred bearish.

Unusual: 70.6 call 155 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 86.5: extreme relative to OI; new bullish flow. 68.4 call 155 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 15.0: high weekly call activity, possibly closing. 97.9 put 100 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol/OI 5.6: deep OTM put with high IV; tail hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Crypto-specific news reversal

!Breakout above $160 resistance

!Gamma flip at $125 triggers dealer buying

!Meme behavior on positive catalysts

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-31 $135.00/$120.00 put spread Why now: Bearish flow and net premium negative; defined-risk debit spread caps cost.	Breakout above $160 or gamma flip at $125 triggers dealer buying.
Long put	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-31 $130.00 put Why now: Net premium negative, bearish flow; long put captures downside convexity.	Time decay if no move; high vol premium expensive.
Put calendar	Conditional	Sell 2026-07-10 $135.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $135.00 put Why now: Term structure high; calendar benefits from vol crush and theta decay.	Sharp rally above short strike; earnings volatility blowout.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $135.00/$120.00 put spread

Buy $135/$120 put spread to profit from downside while capping loss.

Why this play: Best matches bearish flow with defined risk and lower cost.

Debit: $3.31-$4.04

Max loss: $4.04

BE: $130.96

Mgmt: Exit near 50% max gain or at invalidation above $160.

Traders seeking defined-risk bearish exposure.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-31 $130.00 put

Buy $130 put to benefit from continued decline.

Why this play: Captures full downside convexity in bearish flow.

Debit: $5.13-$6.27

Max loss: $6.27

BE: $123.73

Mgmt: Set stop at $160; consider rolling if theta accelerates.

Traders comfortable with higher risk for larger upside.

Put Calendar

Sell 2026-07-10 $135.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $135.00 put

Sell near-term put, buy back-month put to profit from vol decline.

Why this play: Leverages term structure and volatility crush.

Debit: $6.40-$7.82

Max loss: $7.82

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if spot breaks $132.44.

Traders expecting vol contraction without sharp move.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot breaks below support $132.44 → THEN enter bear put spread: buy 2026-07-31 $135.00/$120.00 put spread at limit $3.31-$4.04

IFIF spot breaks below $132.44 with increasing put flow → THEN enter long put: buy 2026-07-31 $130.00 put at $5.13-$6.27

IFIF spot stays below $160 and IV declines 5% → THEN enter put calendar: sell 2026-07-10 $135.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $135.00 put at limit $6.40-$7.82

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot rallies above resistance $160 → THEN exit all bearish positions (bear put spread, long put, put calendar)

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bearish bias; key support $132.44, resistance $160. Top play #1 Bear Put Spread, #2 Long Put, #3 Put Calendar. Invalidation above $160; gamma flip at $125. Manage positions with defined risk.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.