COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $150.11EOD onlyThis page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
Outlook
Bearish bias driven by negative dealer gamma and bearish flow, with spot below max pain. Elevated IV supports put premiums. Key risk is bounce from structural support at 127.
Conflicts: Strong resistance at 155/158, potential bounce from support 127
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $-17.3M
DEX: +27.2M shares
Gamma flip: ~$125 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,507 (12.3% below spot))
NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma ($-17.3M) with DEX long +27.2M shares. Gamma flip at ~$125, 12.3% below spot.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: IV elevated relative to VIX (18.9), implying rich premium for event risk.
Term structure: Near-term elevated, backwardation likely given event expiry tomorrow.
Skew: Put skew elevated due to bearish flow; opportunities in put spreads to monetize high IV.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Net premium -$137M (put-heavy), put/call vol ratio 1.54, OI ratio 0.87, indicating bearish flow.
Directional prints: 55.6 put 142 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI ratio 11.6x, OI 386. Bought puts (bearish) or sold puts (bullish). Preferred: bought puts due to net bearish flow and high volume. 55.2 put 144 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI ratio 8.1x, OI 218. Likely bought puts for downside; preferred: aggressive put buying.
Unusual: 250 put 5 OTM 2026-12-18 — Vol 3040 vs OI 836, IV 250%. Extremely OTM speculative put; lottery-like bets or tail hedging. 208.2 put 182.5 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 595 vs OI 151, IV 208%. ITM put with elevated IV; likely distressed buying or hedging. 62.5 call 155 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 3215 vs OI 807, IV 62.5%. High volume OTM calls; could be sold (bearish) or bought (bullish). Preferred: sold calls given net bearish flow.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear put spread | Moderate-Strong | Buy 2026-07-31 $135.00/$125.00 put spread Why now: Negative dealer gamma and bearish flow suggest further downside; put spreads limit capital at risk. | Spot bounce from 127 support could offset short-term bearish positioning; avoid over-leverage. |
| Long put | Moderate-Strong | Buy 2026-07-31 $130.00 put Why now: Put-heavy flow and negative gamma suggest momentum lower; long put offers convex exposure. | Time decay if move is delayed; bounce from support could cause losses. |
| Call credit spread | Moderate-Weak | Sell 2026-07-31 $165.00/$180.00 call spread Why now: Elevated IV inflates call premiums; downside bias makes short calls advantageous with defined risk. | Upside surprise from crypto catalysts; capped upside loss but margin required. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (59%). |
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Tactical Summary
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These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.