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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $163.26EOD only
Max Pain
$175.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.45
7.6% from close
Price Gap
+11.74
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
COIN Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

COIN under pinning regime with dealer gamma positive (+$6.7M) supporting drift to $168 MP. Mixed flow and heavy put OI at $125 downside risk. IV rich vs VIX 17.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5, +1 gamma, +0.5 spot-MP, +1 VIX, -1 flow conflict =6.5.
Supports: Gamma pinning, spot near MP, VIX support, positive DEX
Conflicts: Mixed flow, heavy put OI, resistance 167.5-177.5
🎯Max pain $168 pinning $+6.7M GEX
⚠️IV rich vs VIX 17, premium decay risk
🐻Put OI 24.2% below spot at $125

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV from events and VIX 17.28.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning +$6.7M GEX, flip $125.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed, put OI heavy below spot.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below MP $168, 1.6% away.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term MP pins (6/26 $168, 7/2 $165) and gamma concentration.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$149.61$180.06
Drift to $168 MP
Next 2 weeks
$144.96$184.71
Range 145-185, resistance 175-177.5

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $168 (2026-06-26); $165 (2026-07-02); $160 (2026-07-10)
EM guardrails: 1w $149.61/$180.06
Support: $144.96
Resistance: $167.50 · $175.00 · $177.50
Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (24.2% below spot)
Structural: Support 144.96, resistance 167.5/175/177.5, gamma flip 125, MP 168/165/160.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+6.7M

DEX: +24.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$125 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (24.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$6.7M, DEX +24.4M, flip ~$125.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 17.28.

Term structure: Short-dated elevated, backwardation.

Skew: Put skew; consider put spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$18M: net selling of premium; put/call vol ratio 0.6 (calls dominant).

Directional prints: 81.5 call 195 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 8.9, aggressive call buying, likely long, bullish. 69 call 180 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 6.8, strong call volume, likely new buying, bullish. 70.1 call 190 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 4.6, call accumulation, likely bought, bullish.

Unusual: 175 put 5 OTM 2026-12-18 — Vol/OI 3.6, deep OTM put, likely lottery/tail hedge. 75.8 call 187.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 3.4, unusual call volume, likely bought. 80.9 put 142 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 2.9, OTM put volume, possibly protective buy.

Risks & Catalysts

!Downside gamma flip at $125
!Premium decay if VIX drops
!Resistance at 167.5-177.5 caps upside

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $160.00/$190.00 call spread
Why now: Dealer gamma positive (+$6.7M) supports upside; resistance at 167.5-177.5 caps; defined risk for event-specific duration.
Premium decays if VIX drops; move beyond short strike caps upside. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-07-31 $155.00/$145.00 put spread
Why now: Dealer gamma positive supports drift; IV rich vs VIX; defined risk below 145
Sharp selloff below 145 causes loss
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-31 $165.00/$175.00 call spread
Why now: Positive gamma and call flow support; resistance at 177.5 caps
Time decay and IV contraction hurt debit; limited upside

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread 165/175
Buy 2026-07-31 $165.00/$175.00 call spread
Captures upside drift into earnings with defined risk below 165; profit capped at 175.
Why this play: Best liquidity and strikes within resistance zone, aligning with dealer gamma support.
Debit: $3.38-$4.12
Max loss: $4.12
BE: $169.12
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max profit or if stock reaches resistance near 177.5.
Active intraday traders seeking high-probability bullish play.
#2
Put Credit Spread 155/145
Sell 2026-07-31 $155.00/$145.00 put spread
Sell put spread to collect premium with bullish outlook; downside protected below 145.
Why this play: High probability of profit with defined risk; benefits from IV contraction and time decay.
Credit: $3.64-$4.45
Max loss: $5.55
BE: $150.55
Mgmt: Buy back at 50% max profit or let expire if stock stays above 155.
Income-focused traders with moderate bullish conviction.
#3
Bull Call Spread 160/190
Buy 2026-07-31 $160.00/$190.00 call spread
Long call spread targeting breakout above 160; profit expands to 190 if upside accelerates.
Why this play: Larger upside potential but lower liquidity and wider strike width.
Debit: $9.97-$12.18
Max loss: $12.18
BE: $172.18
Mgmt: Roll down strikes if stock drops below 145 invalidation; exit at 50% profit. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.
Position traders tolerant of wider bid-ask spreads and longer holding period.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF stock trades above 155 and stays above 144.96 → THEN sell put credit spread 155/145 for credit 3.64-4.45
IFIF stock breaks above 165 with increasing call volume → THEN buy 165/175 call spread for 3.38-4.12
IFIF stock breaks above 160 with momentum and wider spread acceptable → THEN buy 160/190 call spread for 9.97-12.18 (lower liquidity)
Exit Triggers
EXITIF stock touches resistance 177.5 or 50% max profit achieved → THEN exit bull call spreads
EXITIF stock breaks below support 144.96 → THEN exit all positions immediately

Tactical Summary

COIN bullish via dealer gamma support (+$6.7M), resistance at 167.5-177.5. Entry triggers on break above 155 (PCS) or 165 (BCS). Exit if stock drops below 144.96 or hits resistance. Duration event-specific; manage decay.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.