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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $169.62EOD only

Max Pain

$167.50

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$9.67

5.7% from close

Price Gap

-2.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.76

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 15, 2026 close

COIN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias within range supported by dealer gamma pinning at $168 and VIX at 16, but capped by near resistance $170 and sector weakness (QQQ -1.9%).

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive pinning; +0.5 spot 1.1% above MP; +1 VIX 16 supportive. Net +1.5 to 6.5.

Supports: Positive gamma (+$28.1M), spot above MP $168, VIX at 16, dealer long gamma.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, QQQ -1.9%, resistance $170 near spot, high vol regime.

🔴Gamma pin at $168 across three expiries

🟢VIX 16.4 supportive for risk-on

🟡Spot at $170 resistance, cap near-term

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV high relative to 20-day range, driven by crypto vol and QQQ -1.9%.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive pinning gamma near $168 max pain; total GEX +$28.1M; flip at ~$125 deep downside.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium; put OI concentration 15,515 suggests hedging, no clear directional signal.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~$170 is 1.1% above $168 MP, slight call-side bias.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple expiry pins (Jun18, Jun26, Jul2) and wide range suggest multi-week structural range.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$161.07$177.47

Range $161-177, pin at $168, resistance $170 caps

Next 1 week

$154.17$184.37

Range $154-184, support $167.5, gamma support holds

Next 2 weeks

$150.50$188.05

Range $150-188, key resistance $188, support $150.5

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $168 (2026-06-18); $168 (2026-06-26); $165 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $161.07/$177.47; 1w $154.17/$184.37

Support: $167.50 · $150.50

Resistance: $170.00 · $188.05

Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (26.2% below spot)

Structural: MP pins $168 (Jun18, Jun26, Jul2); support $167.5, $150.5; resistance $170, $188.05; EM guardrails 2d $161-177, 1w $154-184.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+28.1M

DEX: +29.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$125 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (26.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer net long gamma +$28.1M, DEX +29.3M shares; gamma flip ~$125 (deep OTM).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV elevated vs VIX 16.4, reflecting high crypto vol and negative sector.

Term structure: Front-month contango typical for high vol names; not specified.

Skew: Put skew elevated; no clear trade without additional data.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative $-68.5M with put/call vol ratio 0.92 (slightly call-heavy) but OI ratio 0.74, indicating net put buying or call selling.

Directional prints: 64.8 put 175 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 10.2x, high; likely bought puts (bearish hedge) but could be sold. Prefer bought. 67.8 call 185 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 8.6x; likely bought calls (bullish) but could be sold. Prefer bought. 65.8 put 152.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 6.4x; suggests put buying for protection or bearish bet.

Unusual: 103 put 95 OTM 2026-07-10 — Deep OTM put, IV 103% very high vs vol/OI 4.1x; likely bought puts expecting large downside move. 273.8 call 75 ITM 2026-06-26 — Deep ITM call, IV 273.8% extremely high; suggests synthetic long stock via bought calls, unusual. 74.5 call 215 OTM 2026-07-02 — OTM call, vol/OI 2.1x, high IV 74.5%; likely bought calls anticipating rally.

Risks & Catalysts

!QQQ continued selloff drags COIN lower

!Gamma flip below $125 triggers dealer hedging

!Resistance at $170 holds, stalls upside

!Flow shifts negative, reversing gamma support

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $145.00/$130.00 put spread Why now: Gamma pinning at $168, support $150; sell 150/148 spread for premium with low probability of breach.	QQQ selloff could push COIN below $148, causing max loss.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-17 $190.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $180.00 call Why now: Term structure rich (back-month IV higher); sell 31dte call, buy 66dte call to profit from theta decay and keep long exposure.	Sharp rally above $170 may cause short call to go ITM, requiring adjustment.

Top Plays

Defensive Put Spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $145.00/$130.00 put spread

Sell 145/130 put spread to collect premium with support at $150.

Why this play: Aligns with bullish bias and gamma pinning; defined risk and higher probability of success.

Credit: $3.33-$4.07

Max loss: $10.93

BE: $140.93

Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if COIN drops below $167.50.

Income-focused traders with bullish view.

Bull Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-07-17 $190.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $180.00 call

Sell near-term 190 call, buy longer-term 180 call for leveraged upside.

Why this play: Capitalizes on term structure and theta decay while maintaining long exposure.

Debit: $9.43-$11.52

Max loss: $11.52

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Adjust if COIN breaks $170; consider rolling short call.

Traders seeking leveraged upside with time decay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFCOIN holds above $167.5 support and VIX stays below 20 → Sell 2026-08-21 $145/$130 put spread at limit $3.70

IFCOIN trades between $167.5 and $170 resistance → Sell 2026-07-17 $190 call / buy 2026-08-21 $180 call at limit $10.50

Exit Triggers

EXITCOIN closes below $167.5 or above $170 → Close both put spread and call diagonal positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias within $167.5-$170 range due to gamma pinning at $168. Deploy defensive put spread for income and bull call diagonal for leveraged upside. Exit if COIN breaks key levels.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.