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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $169.27EOD only

Max Pain

$167.50

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.20

4.8% from close

Price Gap

-1.77

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 16, 2026 close

COIN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

COIN faces bearish pressure below $168 max pain with high vol and dealer gamma pinning. Spot likely drifts toward 2d range low $159.22, but gamma flip at $125 caps downside. Mixed flow lacks catalyst; defensive stance preferred.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 5 adjusted: GEX/flow conflict -1, GEX pinning +1, spot proximity to MP +0.5, VIX 18 +0.5 = 6.

Supports: Dealer long gamma (+$25.7M), VIX above 18, spot near gamma flip support at $125.
Conflicts: Spot below max pain, flow mixed, high vol uncertain.

📌Max pain $168 on 6/18, spot trading below

🛡️Gamma flip at $125 provides structural support

⚡Elevated VIX 18 signals high uncertainty

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol: IV elevated relative to typical range; VIX 18.44 with SPY/QQQ down.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$25.7M, dealers long gamma pinning near $168. Gamma flip ~$125 based on put OI.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium; P/C ratio ambiguous, no clear directional signal.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below $168 max pain (6/18) but well above $125 gamma flip; downward bias with pinning risk.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Proximity to OPEX (6/18) and high vol justify focus on near-term expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$159.22$170.61

Spot below max pain, targets $159.22 low

Next 1 week

$151.36$178.46

Further downside to $151.36 support if selling persists

Next 2 weeks

$147.34$182.49

Test $147.34 low unless catalyst emerges

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $168 (2026-06-18); $175 (2026-06-26); $165 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $159.22/$170.61; 1w $151.36/$178.46

Support: $147.34

Resistance: $167.50 · $170.00 · $182.49

Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (24.2% below spot)

Structural: Support: $147.34 (2w low), $125 gamma flip. Resistance: $167.5, $170 (max pain), $182.49. EM guardrails: 2d $159.22–$170.61, 1w $151.36–$178.46.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+25.7M

DEX: +29.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$125 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (24.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma +$25.7M (long), delta +29.5M shares. Gamma flip ~$125 based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (24.2% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX (18.44) and sector, indicating elevated option premiums.

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to OPEX; expected to flatten post-event.

Skew: Put skew elevated; no clear arbitrage, but selling put spreads near $125 gamma flip may be attractive.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$255M, P/C vol ratio 0.90, OI ratio 0.75, bearish flow.

Directional prints: 64.1 call 182.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 6792/OI 574 (12x), likely bought, bullish bet. 299.3 put 240 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 4152/OI 655 (6.3x), likely bought, bearish hedge. 356.6 put 270 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 1877/OI 320 (5.9x), likely bought, bearish.

Unusual: 64.1 call 182.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 11.8, IV 64%, unusual call buy. 299.3 put 240 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 6.3, IV 299%, unusual put. 72.9 call 202.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 7.5, IV 73%, unusual OTM call.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot breaks below $125 gamma flip causing acceleration

!Unexpected bullish catalyst from crypto news

!Vol collapse post-OPEX squeezes short vol positions

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $170.00/$160.00 put spread Why now: Defined risk capitalizing on bearish bias with high IV and August expiration after earnings.	Spot reversal above $170 or IV crush reduces spread value.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-08-21 $180.00/$185.00 call spread Why now: Dealer gamma flips at $180; short call spread captures time decay and bearish after earnings.	Spot rallies above $180 on positive crypto news.
Put calendar	Conditional	Sell 2026-07-24 $160.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $160.00 put Why now: Calendar structure profits from implied vol decline post-earnings; limited directional exposure.	Spot moves sharply away from $160; all legs lose if direction fails.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $170.00/$160.00 put spread

Expresses downside via 170/160 put spread post-earnings, high IV and gamma selloff.

Why this play: Directly capitalizes on bearish bias with defined risk, best alignment with flow and max pain.

Debit: $4.93-$6.02

Max loss: $6.02

BE: $163.98

Mgmt: Exit near $165 or if COIN breaks above 167.5; take profit at 50% max gain.

Aggressive bearish traders seeking high reward within risk limits.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $180.00/$185.00 call spread

Sells upside premium at gamma flip level, benefiting from pinning and vol decline.

Why this play: Captures time decay and bearish drift; less risky than put spread but lower return.

Credit: $1.51-$1.84

Max loss: $3.16

BE: $181.84

Mgmt: Close if COIN approaches $180; hold to expiry for full credit.

Moderate bearish traders seeking income with capped risk.

Put Calendar

Sell 2026-07-24 $160.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $160.00 put

Sells near-term puts to collect premium, buys later puts to hedge, gains from vol drop.

Why this play: Less directional, relies on vol collapse; lower conviction given bearish sentiment.

Debit: $4.79-$5.86

Max loss: $5.86

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Exit if COIN moves below 147 or above 165; monitor vega.

Traders expecting vol decline with neutral directional view.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFCOIN breaks below $159.22 (2d low) with volume → Buy 2026-08-21 $170/$160 put spread (strat1)

IFCOIN fails to break above $167.5 resistance → Sell 2026-08-21 $180/$185 call spread (strat2)

Exit Triggers

EXITCOIN closes above $167.5 → Close bear put spread (strat1)

EXITCOIN climbs above $180 → Close call credit spread (strat2)

Tactical Summary

Bearish drift toward $159.22 with max pain at $170. Prefer bear put spread below $159.22 or call credit spread if capped at $167.5. Manage exits at $167.5 and $180. Avoid below $125 gamma flip. No catalyst; defensive stance.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.