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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $159.78EOD only

Max Pain

$167.50

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$11.12

7.0% from close

Price Gap

+7.72

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

COIN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer directional report is available for June 12, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

COIN near $160 max pain with positive GEX pinning but mixed flow; elevated vol from market rally suggests near-term range. Bias neutral-to-bullish, capped by resistance $167.5-170.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; -1 mixed flow; +1 GEX pinning; +1 spot near MP; +0.5 VIX 19. Net 6.5.

Supports: Positive GEX +$8.2M; SPY/QQQ rally; spot at MP; VIX moderate.
Conflicts: Mixed flow; resistance $167.5-170; high vol suggests reversal risk; gamma flip $125 far below.

📌Max Pain $160 6/12 expiry, spot <1% away, pinning likely.

🟡Mixed flow – puts/calls balanced, no strong directional conviction.

📈Market tailwind: SPY +1.7%, QQQ +3.38% supports bullish bias.

⚠️High vol regime amplifies moves but also implies potential reversal.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High – COIN IV elevated from tech/crypto moves; VIX 19.44 supports.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning – positive dealer gamma near $160 (+$8.2M GEX); spot within 0.3% of pin.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed – no clear net direction; conflicts with GEX signal.

Spot vs Max Pain

At – spot at $160, exactly at 6/12 expiry max pain, high pinning probability.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Spot at weekly max pain with positive GEX; pinning through 6/12 expiry likely. Beyond, ranges widen to $147-173, suggesting possible breakout.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$154.82$166.04

Pinned near $160; range $158-$163 likely.

Next 1 week

$147.33$173.53

Market tailwind and positive gamma support drift to $167.5 resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$142.25$178.60

Range $142-$178; upside bias if $170 breaks, but $125 gamma flip downside risk.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $160 (2026-06-12); $172 (2026-06-18); $170 (2026-06-26)

EM guardrails: 2d $154.82/$166.04; 1w $147.33/$173.53

Support: $160.00 · $142.25

Resistance: $167.50 · $170.00 · $175.00

Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (22.1% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $160 (6/12), $172 (6/18), $170 (6/26). EM guardrails 2d $154.82/$166.04, 1w $147.33/$173.53. Support $160, $142.25. Resistance $167.5, $170, $175. Gamma flip ~$125.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+8.2M

DEX: +29.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$125 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (22.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net GEX +$8.2M (positive), DEX +29.2M shares long. Gamma flip at ~$125 (put OI 22% below spot). Positive gamma near spot encourages pinning.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: COIN IV rich vs VIX due to individual vol; premium selling attractive.

Term structure: Upward sloping with kinks at weekly expiries; 6/12 expiry pronounced pin.

Skew: Put-skewed from downside hedging. Opportunity: sell $150 puts 6/12 expiry, supported by positive GEX.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium -$168M, P/C vol ratio 0.66, indicating net put buying.

Directional prints: 193.3 put 290 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 6.1x, deep ITM put likely bought for downside protection; prefer bearish.

Unusual: 193.3 put 290 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 6.1x, deep ITM put, unusual volume; likely bought for protection. 258.7 put 340 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 6.0x, deep ITM put, unusual volume; likely bought for protection. 182.7 put 270 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 6.0x, deep ITM put, unusual volume; likely bought for protection.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $125 (22% below spot) risk if selloff.

!Vol spike from crypto news.

!Resistance cluster $167.5-170 may cap rally.

!Mixed flow reduces directional conviction.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $160.00/$185.00 call spread Why now: Neutral-to-bullish bias with resistance at $170; limited capital at risk.	Upside capped; if stock drops, debit is lost.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-08-21 $150.00/$145.00 put spread Why now: Stock pinned near $160; put credit spread collects premium with safety buffer.	Downside selloff below $145 causes loss.
Call calendar	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-17 $165.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $165.00 call Why now: Elevated near-term vol; calendar collects theta with long vol exposure through earnings.	Stock moves sharply above short strike; assignment risk.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $160.00/$185.00 call spread

Buy $160/$185 call spread to profit from moderate upside to $170 resistance.

Why this play: Best aligns with neutral-to-bullish bias and resistance cap; defined risk.

Debit: $8.44-$10.31

Max loss: $10.31

BE: $170.31

Mgmt: Exit if stock breaks below $160 or near expiration.

Traders expecting a capped rally to $170.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $150.00/$145.00 put spread

Sell $150/$145 put spread to benefit from pinning at $160.

Why this play: Collects premium with safety buffer at $150; low risk.

Credit: $1.89-$2.31

Max loss: $2.69

BE: $147.69

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or if stock drops below $150.

Income-focused traders in range-bound market.

Call Calendar

Sell 2026-07-17 $165.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $165.00 call

Sell near-term call, buy later to capture vol crush and time decay.

Why this play: Exploits elevated vol and event risk; theta decay.

Debit: $7.11-$8.69

Max loss: $8.69

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Monitor vol; adjust if stock moves beyond $165.

Volatility traders expecting near-term vol to decline after event.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFCOIN holds above $160 support → Buy $160/$185 call spread for $8.44-$10.31

IFCOIN sustains above $150 → Sell $150/$145 put spread for $1.89-$2.31

IFCOIN near $165 → Sell 7/17 $165 call and buy 8/21 $165 call for $7.11-$8.69

Exit Triggers

EXITCOIN breaks below $160 → Exit bullish positions including spreads and calendar

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bullish; support $160, resistance $167.5-170. Enter bull call spread if $160 holds; put credit spread if above $150; call calendar near $165. Exit all if $160 breaks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.