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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $155.50EOD only
Max Pain
$162.50
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.32
6.0% from close
Price Gap
+7.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
30
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
COIN Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias for next 1-2 weeks due to negative gamma (-$9.4M GEX), spot below $160 max pain, and weak macro (SPY -1.58%, QQQ -2%). Downside targets: $146.27 (2d), $140 (1w), $135.52 (2w). Gamma flip at $125 if selling accelerates. Flow mixed, so stay cautious on size.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 6.5: +2 from strong GEX/flow alignment, -0.5 from spot 3.8% below MP. Net 8.0.
Supports: Negative gamma amplifies downside; SPY/QQQ down; spot below MP; gamma flip at $125.
Conflicts: Mixed flow; support at $135.52 may slow decline; high IV could attract sellers.
📉Negative gamma (-$9.4M) amplifies moves; spot below $160 MP.
⚠️Gamma flip at $125 weak but could accelerate selloff if triggered.
🔑Key support at $135.52 critical; breakdown opens $125.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV high vs typical range; VIX 22.2 and macro selloff indicate elevated fear.
Gamma Regime
Trending
GEX -$9.4M (negative gamma); trending regime amplifies directional moves.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Flow mixed; no strong directional signal from premiums or P/C.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below $160 MP; bearish sentiment but mixed flow weakens pin effect.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol and negative gamma favor multi-week trend over event-specific binary.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$146.27$161.67
Negative gamma and macro likely push toward $146.27 low; $160 resistance.
Next 1 week
$140.00$167.95
Target $140 support; $146.27 is first breakdown level.
Next 2 weeks
$135.52$172.42
May test $135.52 support; gamma flip at $125 if selling persists.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $160 (2026-06-12); $185 (2026-06-18); $170 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 2d $146.27/$161.67; 1w $140.00/$167.95
Support: $135.52
Resistance: $160.00 · $167.50 · $172.42
Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (18.8% below spot)
Structural: Support $135.52 (2w low); resistance $160 (MP), $167.5, $172.42 (2w high). Gamma flip ~$125.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-9.4M

DEX: +29.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$125 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (18.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Short gamma (-$9.4M) and long delta (+29.4M shares). Negative gamma amplifies moves; delta hedged but gamma short risks flip on large moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: COIN IV rich vs VIX 22.2, implying high expected move. Premium selling attractive if direction confident, but large moves likely.

Term structure: Term structure not detailed; near-term IV likely elevated due to negative gamma and macro sensitivity.

Skew: Put skew elevated; opportunity to buy puts targeting $135.52 or sell call spreads above $160 given high IV.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$80.9M bearish, but call volume ratio 0.525 and high call vol/OI suggest aggressive bullish flow underneath; mixed.

Directional prints: 72.4 call 167.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — vol/OI 7.8; strong call buying at higher strike. Prefer bought. 72.9 call 160 OTM 2026-06-18 — vol/OI 3.5; part of call cluster. Prefer bought. 70.9 call 162.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — vol/OI 3.1; near-term call buying. Prefer bought.

Unusual: 72.6 call 157.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — vol/OI 17.6; extreme relative volume. Likely aggressive buy. 216 call 75 ITM 2026-06-26 — Deep OTM with 216% IV; speculative whale activity. 70.8 put 140 OTM 2026-07-17 — vol/OI 2.3; notable put volume. Potential bearish hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Macro reversal could spike COIN due to short gamma.
!Gamma flip at $125, if broken, may cause extreme downside.
!Mixed flow risks whipsaw; high IV collapse if VIX drops.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-26 $152.50/$150.00 put spread
Why now: Negative gamma, spot<max pain, downside targets.
Gamma flip at $125 could overshoot.
Long putWeak
Buy 2026-06-26 $144.00 put
Why now: High IV, bearish bias, technical levels provide opportunity.
IV collapse if VIX drops reduces value. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Call credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-26 $165.00/$170.00 call spread
Why now: Sell calls at resistance, collect premium despite call flow.
Macro reversal could spike COIN due to short gamma.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-06-26 $152.50/$150.00 put spread
Buy $152.50/$150 put spread to profit from downside to $140-$146 within 1-2 weeks.
Why this play: Negative gamma and spot below max pain support bearish move; defined risk with tight strikes.
Debit: $1.19-$1.46
Max loss: $1.46
BE: $151.04
Mgmt: Exit if spot rises above $160 invalidation; take profits near $140 target.
Traders seeking defined risk bearish exposure with good liquidity.
#2
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-26 $165.00/$170.00 call spread
Sell $165/$170 call spread to benefit from spot staying below $165.
Why this play: Sell calls at resistance to capture premium despite mixed flow; liquidity pass.
Credit: $1.15-$1.40
Max loss: $3.60
BE: $166.40
Mgmt: Close if spot approaches $165; invalidation above $170.
Traders expecting limited upside or slight downside with defined risk.
#3
Long Put
Buy 2026-06-26 $144.00 put
Buy $144 put for downside to $135-$140, but liquidity pass fail.
Why this play: High IV and bearish bias provide opportunity, but liquidity is a concern.
Debit: $4.37-$5.33
Max loss: $5.33
BE: $138.67
Mgmt: Set stop if spot above $160; target $135-$140. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Traders with higher risk tolerance willing to accept liquidity risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot breaks below $152.50 with bearish momentum → Enter bear put spread: buy $152.50/$150 put (Jun 26 expiry)
IFSpot rallies to $165 resistance → Enter call credit spread: sell $165/$170 call spread (Jun 26 expiry)
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot closes above $160 invalidation → Exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias 1-2 weeks on negative gamma and spot below $160 max pain. Support $135.52, resistance $167.5. Gamma flip at $125. Preferred: bear put spread ($152.50/$150). Use call credit spread on strength to $165. Exit if above $160. Monitor macro reversal and gamma flip risks.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.