thetaOwl

COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $155.50EOD only
Max Pain
$162.50
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.32
6.0% from close
Price Gap
+7.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
30
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
COIN Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish 1-2wks. High vol, trending gamma, spot below MP, neg GEX favor downside to $136. VIX 20 moderates.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base7; +2 GEX/flow, -0.5 spot, +0.5 VIX.
Supports: GEX/flow aligned; VIX20.
Conflicts: Spot below MP; mixed flow; DEX positive.
🔴High vol, trending gamma => downside.
Spot below $162 MP pin.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending, neg GEX
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below $162
Thesis duration: Multi-week — 2wk range, MP pins extend.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$146.18$164.82
test $146.18
Next 1 week
$140.82$170.18
target $140.82
Next 2 weeks
$136.03$174.97
$136-$175

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $162 (2026-06-12); $190 (2026-06-18); $170 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 2d $146.18/$164.82; 1w $140.82/$170.18
Support: $136.03
Resistance: $160.00 · $162.50 · $167.50
Gamma flip: ~$125.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (19.6% below spot)
Structural: Spt $136; Res $160/$162.5/$167.5; Gflip $125; MP $162 6/12, $190 6/18.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-3.4M

DEX: +29.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$125 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (19.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$3.4M, DEX +29.2M, flip $125.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Rich vs VIX20

Term structure: Front-end high

Skew: Put skew high, sell puts >$140.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Heavy net selling of options: net premium -$91.1M, put/call vol ratio 0.81 (more calls), but overall bearish given negative premium and market drop.

Directional prints: 72.7 put 152.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 1145 vs OI 572 (2.0x). Likely bought (bearish) as ITM put; could be sold to close, but preferred read is bearish speculation. 71.9 call 162.5 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 1451 vs OI 598 (2.4x). Likely bought (bullish) betting on bounce; could be sold to close, but preferred read is bullish. 73.5 call 152.5 ITM 2026-06-12 — Vol 446 vs OI 154 (2.9x). Likely bought (bullish); preferred read is bullish given high vol/OI and near ATM.

Unusual: 87.3 put 85 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol 1145 vs OI 249 (4.6x) — extremely unusual for deep OTM put. Could be bearish speculation or hedge; preferred read is bearish sentiment. 343 call 820 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 763 vs OI 256 (3.0x) — lottery ticket with extreme IV (343%). Likely speculative buy, low probability. 112.1 put 95 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 529 vs OI 174 (3.0x) — unusual deep OTM put buying. Preferred read: bearish tail risk hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot >$162
!Gflip <$125
!VIX>25
!Flow positive

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $150.00/$130.00 put spread
Why now: Negative GEX, spot below MP, heavy put selling suggests further decline.
Upside gap or short squeeze above $162.
Long putModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $140.00 put
Why now: High IV amplifies directional returns; put flow supports bearish conviction.
Time decay accelerates if spot stabilizes.
Put calendarModerate
Sell 2026-06-26 $140.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $140.00 put
Why now: Term structure steep; near-term put premium elevated, back-month cheaper on vol decay.
Sharp rally near-term could hurt short leg.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $150.00/$130.00 put spread
Buy $150/$130 put spread to profit from downside to $130
Why this play: Best risk/reward for short-term bearish view with defined risk and lower cost
Debit: $7.99-$9.76
Max loss: $9.76
BE: $140.24
Mgmt: Close at $160 invalidation or near $130 target
Defined-risk traders
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-08-21 $140.00 put
Buy $140 put for directional move with unlimited upside
Why this play: High potential payoff if spot declines sharply; put flow supports
Debit: $12.02-$14.69
Max loss: $14.69
BE: $125.31
Mgmt: Set stop at $160; roll if needed
Aggressive high-conviction traders
#3
Put Calendar
Sell 2026-06-26 $140.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $140.00 put
Sell near-term put, buy back-month for long bearish
Why this play: Capitalizes on steep term structure; lower risk if spot range-bound
Debit: $8.70-$10.63
Max loss: $10.63
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Monitor vega; close near $136 or vol spike
Traders expecting stable price with vol decay

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot breaks below $152 with bearish volume and put flow, THEN enter Bear Put Spread (buy $150/$130 put spread) near $9.76.Enter Bear Put Spread (strat_1) at offered side of entry range.
IFIF spot drops sharply below $145 with strong momentum, THEN buy $140 put near $14.69.Enter Long Put (strat_2) for aggressive bearish bet.
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot recovers above $160, THEN close Bear Put Spread to cap loss.Close Bear Put Spread immediately.

Tactical Summary

Bearish 1-2wks. Support $136, resistance $160. Prefer Bear Put Spread; entry on break below $152, stop at $160. Long put for aggressive; Put Calendar if range-bound.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.