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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $164.13EOD only
Max Pain
$175.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.17
3.1% from close
Price Gap
+10.87
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
21
Low premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 4, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 4, 2026 close
COIN Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias amid negative dealer gamma and spot below max pain. High vol and mixed flow support downside, but far-from-MP risk tempers conviction.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow alignment, -1 spot 10.4% below MP, +0.5 VIX 22. Net 6.5/10.
Supports: Dealer short gamma, bearish spot-vs-MP, elevated VIX.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, price near EM guardrails, potential for mean reversion.
📉GEX -$18.7M: Short gamma amplifies downside; flip at $125.
🎚️Max pain $170 vs spot ~$152: Stickiness unlikely; drift lower.
⚠️Risk of gamma squeeze above $158.67 (1w high) if market recovers.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol regime, IV elevated due to market selloff and COIN's high beta. VIX at 21.5.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Negative gamma (-$18.7M), flip ~$125 (18% below spot). Not imminent but amplifies moves.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium, no clear directional skew. Dealer positioning suggests short gamma.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below max pain ($170), indicating bearish pressure and reduced pinning.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol, negative gamma, and spot below MP suggest a sustained bearish trend over coming weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$146.12$158.67
Key support $146.12; resistance $158.67. Breakdown below $146 opens $135.
Next 2 weeks
$135.37$169.42
Wider range $135-169; gamma acceleration possible below $146.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $170 (2026-06-05); $168 (2026-06-12); $190 (2026-06-18)
EM guardrails: 1w $146.12/$158.67
Support: $135.37
Resistance: $167.50 · $169.42
Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,509 (18.0% below spot)
Structural: Max pain: $170 (Jun5), $168 (Jun12), $190 (Jun18). EM guardrails: 1w $146.12/$158.67. Support $135.37; resistance $167.5, $169.42. Gamma flip ~$125.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-18.7M

DEX: +30.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$125 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,509 (18.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Short gamma: -$18.7M; long delta: +30.1M shares. Gamma flip at $125 (18% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV rich relative to VIX (21.5), reflecting idiosyncratic risk and high beta. Premium for downside protection.

Term structure: Front-end elevated, back-end normal, typical for event-driven vol skew.

Skew: Put skew steep; consider bear put spreads to express downside view with defined risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net negative premium -174M with put/call vol ratio 1.13, bearish flow despite OI ratio 0.73.

Directional prints: 69 call 160 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 44.9x, IV 69%. High vol likely opening bought calls for upside; net premium negative suggests caution.

Unusual: 16 call 155 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 98x, IV 16%. Extremely low IV, likely closing or sweep; unclear direction. 39.1 call 160 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 25.1x, IV 39%. Expiring worthless, large volume likely closing or roll; bearish. 21.5 put 150 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 11.1x, IV 21.5%. Largest put volume, possibly hedging or closing; bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip below $125 could accelerate decline.
!Broad market reversal may lift COIN quickly toward EM guardrails.
!IV contraction post-event could hurt premium sellers.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $160.00/$150.00 put spread
Why now: Bear put spread captures directional downside with defined risk; high IV makes long put expensive, spread reduces premium outlay.
Risk of sharp rally on market reversal; gamma flip below $125 could accelerate but IV contraction post-earnings hurts if stock holds.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread on COIN
Buy 2026-08-21 $160.00/$150.00 put spread
Buy 160/150 put spread expiring Aug 21 to profit from downside amid negative dealer gamma and bearish flow.
Why this play: Only candidate and eligible; captures bearish thesis with defined risk.
Debit: $4.93-$6.02
Max loss: $6.02
BE: $153.98
Mgmt: Exit at 50% of max gain or at invalidation above 167.5; monitor gamma flip below 125.
Traders seeking defined-risk bearish exposure with high IV mitigating premium cost.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFCOIN breaks below support $135.37 → Enter bear put spread 160/150 Aug21 at ~$5.48 midpoint
Exit Triggers
EXITProfit reaches 50% of max gain ($1.99) → Close bear put spread for gain
EXITCOIN rises above invalidation $167.5 → Exit bear put spread for loss

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias due to negative dealer gamma and spot below max pain. Key support $135.37; resistance $167.5/$169.42. High IV favors put spreads. Monitor gamma flip at $125 for acceleration. Entry on breakdown below support; exit at 50% gain or invalidation.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.