thetaOwl
HomeOptionsCOINReports

COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $201.80EOD only
Max Pain
$195.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.60
5.8% from close
Price Gap
-6.80
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
COIN Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by strong dealer gamma pinning ($195 support) and bullish flow ($+54.3M GEX). High vol and spot 8.7% above MP create risk, but positive GEX alignment favors buying dips near $195.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 pinning gamma, -1 spot far from MP, +1 VIX 17 = 8
Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX, $195 support
Conflicts: High vol, spot far from MP, gamma flip at $170
🟢Bullish flow: $+54.3M GEX, call-heavy
📌Gamma pinning: support $195, resistance $220
⚠️High vol: IV elevated, vega risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High: IV elevated vs typical range, crypto-driven
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: $+54.3M GEX positive, flip ~$170
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish: net premium positive, calls lead
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Above: spot $212, 8.7% above $195 MP
Thesis duration: Event-specific — High vol, strong flow, gamma pinning near weekly expiry

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$202.98$221.03
Support $195, resistance $220
Next 1 week
$192.38$231.63
Weekly pin $198, target $231
Next 2 weeks
$187.11$236.91
Bimonthly pin $190, risk of gamma flip

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $195 (2026-05-15); $198 (2026-05-22); $190 (2026-05-29)
EM guardrails: 2d $202.98/$221.03; 1w $192.38/$231.63
Support: $195.00 · $187.11
Resistance: $220.00 · $236.91
Gamma flip: ~$170.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 12,400 (19.8% below spot)
Structural: Max pain: $195 (May15), $198 (May22), $190 (May29). EM: 2d $202.98/$221.03, 1w $192.38/$231.63. Support $195, $187. Resistance $220, $237. Gamma flip ~$170.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+54.3M

DEX: +31.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$170 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 12,400 (19.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: $+54.3M GEX positive; flip at ~$170. DEX +31.2M shares (long delta).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: COIN 30d IV rich vs VIX (~80% vs 17), reflecting event risk

Term structure: Contango through expiries, kink at weekly pins

Skew: Put skew elevated below $170; consider short vol call spreads

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net $132M bullish; call/put vol ratio 0.24 indicates put volume dominance, but total call premium outpaces puts.

Directional prints: 77.2 call 222.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 39.4x, aggressive call buying, preferred bullish. 80 call 232.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 25.9x, likely opening longs, bullish. 80.7 call 235 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 26.3x, new bullish positions.

Unusual: 74.2 put 217.5 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 10.4x, unusual put volume; could be hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Drop to gamma flip $170
!VIX spike from macro
!Crypto regulatory news
!Earnings event risk

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadStrong
Buy 2026-06-18 $200.00/$220.00 call spread
Why now: Flow bullish, GEX supports upside; defined risk for near-term/event.
Drop below $195 negates thesis; wide bid-ask spreads.
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-06-05 $195.00/$180.00 put spread
Why now: Dealer gamma pin at $195; $190 put credit spread collects premium with safety.
Break below $190 leads to max loss; sharp drop from macro risk.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-18 $200.00/$220.00 call spread
Captures upside to $220 with limited risk; uses $200/$220 June spread.
Why this play: Aligns with bullish bias and flow; defined risk for earnings run-up.
Debit: $8.57-$10.48
Max loss: $10.48
BE: $210.48
Mgmt: Exit if COIN breaks $195; take profit near $220.
Traders expecting continued rally to earnings.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $195.00/$180.00 put spread
Sells $195/$180 put spread to profit from floor at $195.
Why this play: Collects premium at dealer gamma pin $195; strong support level.
Credit: $3.13-$3.83
Max loss: $11.17
BE: $191.17
Mgmt: Close if COIN falls below $195; roll down if tested.
Income-focused traders unwilling to risk upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFCOIN holds above $195 with bullish momentum → Buy 2026-06-18 $200/$220 call spread at $8.57-$10.48
IFCOIN holds above $195 and seeks income → Sell 2026-06-05 $195/$180 put spread at $3.13-$3.83
Exit Triggers
EXITCOIN breaks below $195 → Close both bull call and put credit spreads

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias to earnings; $195 gamma pin support, $220 resistance. Top plays: Bull Call Spread for upside, Put Credit Spread for income. Invalidation at $195.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.