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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $173.78EOD only

Max Pain

$190.00

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.25

4.2% from close

Price Gap

+16.22

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.78

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 27, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 27, 2026 close

COIN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Neutral with a slight bearish tilt toward $170, but pinning forces a range. Confidence: 5/10. GEX +$15.6M creates a strong pinning force, but net premium -$64.2M and mixed flow show institutional selling pressure. Spot above max pain ($170) adds gravitational pull lower.

Confidence:

5 / 10

base 5; GEX positive supports pinning, but net premium negative and flow mixed create conflict.

Supports: GEX +$15.6M concentrated at $170, $177.50, $185; P/C volume 0.47 shows call dominance.
Conflicts: Net premium -$64.2M (bearish), spot above max pain $170, IV 81.7% very high.

📌Strong pin at $170 with +$4.6M GEX concentration.

📉Net premium -$64.2M indicates institutional selling.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 81.7% extremely high — selling premium favored if you can manage tail risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$15.6M concentrated near spot ($170-$185) creates strong pinning and mean-reversion.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: P/C volume 0.47 bullish but net premium -$64.2M bearish; unusual prints show both sides.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $174.79 above max pain $170 — gravity pulls lower.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder rises from $170 to $200 over 16 expirations; GEX sign stable positive; flow regime consistent across expirations.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$152.71$196.86

Max pain pin at $170 dominates; break above $177.50 invalidates.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $170 (2026-04-10); $180 (2026-04-17); $175 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails:

Support: $170.00 · $165.00 · $160.00

Resistance: $177.50 · $185.00 · $190.00

Gamma flip: ~$170.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 7,151 (2.7% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall $185-$230 caps upside; put floor $150-$160.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+15.6M

DEX: +27.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$170 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 7,151 (2.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Positive GEX concentrated at $170, $177.50, $185 — dealers hedge long gamma by buying dips and selling rallies.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 81.7% extremely high — no VIX provided for comparison, but rich vs historical.

Term structure: Steeply downward: 4/10 77.7% > 4/17 72.8% > 4/24 71.3% — event-pricing kink at 4/10 expiry.

Skew: 4/10 IV 77.7% vs 4/17 IV 72.8% → +4.9pt differential favors calendar spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$64.2M bearish; P/C volume 0.47 bullish.

Directional prints: call 170 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 12,135 vs OI 572 (21.2x) — likely bought for directional upside or hedging. put 175 ITM 2026-04-10 — Vol 2,911 vs OI 444 (6.6x) — likely sold for premium or hedging.

Unusual: 83.1 put 95 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol 1,020 vs OI 617 (1.6x) — likely tail hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$170 breaks pin and accelerates downside.

!IV 81.7% high — vol crush risk after 4/10 expiry.

!Earnings 5/7 adds event risk; historical surprises volatile.

!Net premium -$64.2M indicates institutional selling pressure.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Avoid — high IV and pinning reduce edge.	Pinning to $170; high volatility.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	Avoid — positive GEX creates mean-reversion.	Dealer hedging buys dips.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Sell $185 call 4/24 against shares.	Upside capped at $185; pin holds.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $170/$165 put spread 4/24.	Break below $170.
Long calls	Weak	Avoid — IV 81.7% rich; pinning limits upside.	Vol crush and time decay.
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate	Buy $175/$170 put spread 4/10.	Pinning at $170; high IV.
Iron condor	Moderate	$170/$165P x $185/$190C 4/24.	High IV >28 and GEX positive.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/10 $170 call (IV 81.2%), buy 4/17 $170 call (IV 78.5%) — regular calendar.	Pin holds; vol differential +2.7pt edge.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2027-03-19 $150 call, sell 4/24 $185 call.	High IV on long leg; pinning.

Top Plays

Put Spread

Sell $170/$165 put spread 4/24

Defined-risk premium collection below max pain with pin support.

Credit: $1.50-$2.00

Max loss: $3.50

BE: $168.50

Mgmt: Close at 50-60% max profit; stop if spot breaks $169.

Traders seeking income with defined risk below the pin.

Covered Call

Sell $185 call 4/24 against shares

Income generation with upside capped at resistance; benefits from high IV and pinning.

Credit: $1.90-$2.00

Max loss: unlimited

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Roll up if spot approaches $185; close if pin breaks.

Shareholders looking to enhance yield in a range-bound market.

Calendar Spread

Sell 4/10 $170 call, buy 4/17 $170 call

Capitalizes on IV differential (+2.7pt) and pin at $170; extra week improves theta decay management.

Debit: $2.70-$3.00

Max loss: $3.00

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close after 4/10 expiry if pin holds; adjust if spot moves >±2%.

Vol traders seeking to exploit high near-term IV with defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot tags $170 and holds for 1 hour → Sell $170/$165 put spread 4/24

IFIV on 4/10 expiry drops below 75% → Sell iron condor $170/$165P x $185/$190C 4/24

Exit Triggers

EXITVIX spikes >30 (if data available) or spot >$185 → Exit all short premium positions

EXIT4/10 expiry passes with pin at $170 → Take profit on calendar spread

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: range-bound pinning between $170-$185 with a bearish tilt toward max pain. Invalidation: break below $169. Regime favors selling premium (covered calls, put spreads) and calendar spreads due to high IV and positive GEX. Top plays: put spread for defined-risk income, covered call for shareholders, calendar for vol traders.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.