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BABA

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedClose $107.10EOD only
Max Pain
$112.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.45
4.2% from close
Price Gap
+4.90
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.54
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BABA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
BABA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with caution; high vol and trending gamma favor momentum, but spot 10.8% below max pain. GEX/flow aligned boosts confidence.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, -1 spot far from MP, +1 VIX 16.
Supports: High vol, trending gamma, GEX/flow alignment, VIX elevated, support $104.19.
Conflicts: Spot far below MP, no gamma flip.
📈Trending gamma and negative dealer GEX favor momentum.
⚠️Spot 10.8% below $120 max pain; drift risk remains.
🔍VIX 16; IV likely high – monitor vol expansion.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol: IV above typical, driven by directional uncertainty.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma: dealer GEX -$48.6M, no flip proximity.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Flow directionally aligned with GEX; net premium positive.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Below MP: spot far below $120 max pain; implies upward drift potential.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple expiries and sustained positioning suggest multi-week horizon.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$102.65$111.55
Support $102.65, resistance $111.55.
Next 2 weeks
$104.19$110.01
Range $104.19-$110.01; key levels hold.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $120 (2026-06-18); $112 (2026-06-26); $120 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 1w $102.65/$111.55
Support: $104.19
Resistance: $110.01
Structural: Max pain $120 (Jun18), $112 (Jun26), $120 (Jul2). EM guardrails 1w $102.65/$111.55. Support $104.19, resistance $110.01. No gamma flip near spot.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-48.6M

DEX: +46.1M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX -$48.6M (negative gamma), DEX +46.1M shares. Negative gamma amplifies moves; dealers hedge directionally.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV likely rich vs VIX 16 due to high vol regime.

Term structure: Probably contango; check event kinks near Jun18, Jun26, Jul2 expiries.

Skew: Skew favors puts; consider selling put spreads if bullish.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$352M (net seller of premium) with elevated put volume (P/C vol 1.12) and call-heavy OI, suggesting bearish flow but mixed positioning.

Directional prints: 413.3 put 160 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 7.2 with high IV; deep ITM put. Net negative premium implies seller; read as bearish hedge or bullish put sale. Preferred read: sold puts (bullish). 12.9 call 107 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 28 with low IV; OTM call. Likely bought for speculation. Preferred read: bought calls (bullish).

Unusual: 479.7 put 165 ITM 2026-06-18 — High vol/OI 8.9 on deep ITM put; IV extreme. Possibly hedge or spread. Net seller suggests bearish hedge or bullish put sale. Preferred read: sold puts (bullish). 64.1 call 105 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 15.1 with elevated IV; OTM call. Likely bought calls. Preferred read: bought calls (bullish).

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot fails to rebound, stays below MP.
!VIX spikes above 20 due to macro shock.
!Negative dealer gamma accelerates downside if support breaks.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $110.00/$120.00 call spread
Why now: Positive GEX/flow momentum but high put volume suggests hedging; spread limits risk.
Fails if BABA does not rebound; time decay neutralizes profit if flat.
Long callModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-08-21 $110.00 call
Why now: GEX positive for calls, low implied vol relative to recent moves; captures upside convexity.
Full premium at risk if BABA drops; theta accelerates near expiry.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $110.00/$120.00 call spread
Captures upside to $120 with capped risk; benefits from positive GEX on calls.
Why this play: Limited risk aligns with cautious bullish thesis and high put volume; spread reduces cost and downside.
Debit: $2.81-$3.44
Max loss: $3.44
BE: $113.44
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $104.19 invalidation; consider closing at 50% max gain before earnings.
Risk-averse traders wanting directional exposure with defined loss.
#2
Long Call
Buy 2026-08-21 $110.00 call
Direct bullish bet leveraging low implied vol; requires strong directional conviction.
Why this play: Maximizes upside convexity if rally materializes; but higher risk due to unlimited loss potential and elevated put volume.
Debit: $5.78-$7.07
Max loss: $7.07
BE: $117.07
Mgmt: Set stop-loss at $104.19; reduce position size to manage risk; take profits on spike in IV.
Aggressive traders with high risk tolerance and bullish outlook.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFBABA price remains above $104.19 support → Enter bull call spread BABA_1
IFBABA price breaks above $110.01 resistance → Enter long call BABA_2
Exit Triggers
EXITBABA price breaks below $104.19 → Exit bull call spread BABA_1
EXITBABA price breaks below $104.19 → Exit long call BABA_2

Tactical Summary

Multi-week bullish bias with caution. Preferred: bull call spread (BABA_1) for defined risk. Aggressive: long call (BABA_2). Key invalidation: $104.19. Manage positions before earnings.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.