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BABA

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedClose $135.64EOD only
Max Pain
$134.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.33
3.9% from close
Price Gap
-1.64
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
11
Low premium
P/C OI
0.69
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BABA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
BABA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 2026-05-14 (38 days out). IV elevated (44.1% for 18d), with a notable 4.6 vol-point differential between 4/24 (44.1%) and 5/22 (48.7%) expirations, creating a reverse calendar spread opportunity. Historical EPS misses (4/4 quarters) and negative net premium (-$28.5M) indicate bearish sentiment. Best strategy: reverse put calendar spread to capitalize on IV differential and theta decay. Key risk: stock moves far from strike, eroding long leg value.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP
Most important: Reverse term structure (4/24 IV 44.1% vs 5/22 IV 48.7%) offers 4.6 vol-point differential for calendar spread; historical EPS misses support bearish bias.
🔄Reverse term structure: 4.6 vol-point differential between 4/24 (44.1%) and 5/22 (48.7%) expirations favors calendar spread.
⚠️Earnings date 2026-05-14 is 38 days out; IV may not be fully elevated yet, but 5/22 IV outlier presents opportunity.
📉Historical EPS misses 4/4 quarters; bearish bias supported by negative net premium.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Below $120, dealers amplify moves due to negative GEX.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-14 (38 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/24 (18d): ±$9.10 (7.4%)
  • 5/15 (39d): ±$13.50 (11.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Reverse shape: 4/24 ATM IV 44.1% vs 5/22 ATM IV 48.7% (4.6 vol-point differential), with 5/22 as outlier; no sharp kink suggests earnings date not fully priced.

Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts if earnings confirmed, back to ~30-35% range; 5/22 IV likely compresses more.

Skew: Puts slightly richer (P/C OI ratio 0.76) but flow mixed with negative net premium.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 0% (0/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No move data provided, but EPS surprises: -35%, -25%, -5%, -2% — consistent misses.

Directional bias: Bearish based on EPS misses and negative net premium.

Key Levels

1$120.00
2$125.00
3$130.00
4$135.00

Flow Highlights

Heavy $130C 4/10 buying (8,729 vol vs 5,468 OI, 1.6x)

Near-term upside bet targeting max pain pin at $130.

Large put flow at OTM strikes ($180, $160, $220) with net premium -$8.1M, -$3.7M, -$3.1M

Institutional hedging or bearish positioning far OTM.

Strategies

Reverse put calendar spread
Buy $125P 4/24 (IV 44.1%) / Sell $125P 5/22 (IV 48.7%)
Max loss: Debit paid (est. $2.00-$3.00)
Max gain: Unlimited if stock pins at $125 and IV differential collapses
BE: Dynamic; optimal near $125 at 4/24 expiry
Trigger: Enter now to capture IV differential; close before 4/24 expiry.
Exploits 4.6 vol-point differential between 4/24 (44.1%) and 5/22 (48.7%) expirations; 5/22 IV is outlier likely to compress post-earnings. Bearish bias from historical EPS misses favors put version.
Outperforms: Stock pins near $125, IV differential compresses (5/22 IV crushes more than 4/24), and theta decay on short leg outpaces long leg.
Underperforms: Stock gaps far from $125 (>±$10) or IV rises uniformly.
Short strangle
Sell $115P x $135C 4/24
Credit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: Unlimited beyond strikes
Max gain: $3.00
BE: 112.00/138.00
Trigger: Enter if earnings date confirmed and IV spikes >45%
IV elevated (44.1%) with flat term structure; historical EPS misses suggest muted reaction, but risk of pinning near $130.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $115-$135, IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM bounds (>±$9.10).
Put debit spread
Buy $125P / Sell $120P 4/24
Max loss: $2.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: $122.50
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if spot breaks below $125.
Historical EPS misses and negative net premium (-$28.5M) support bearish bias; targets support at $120.
Outperforms: Stock drops below $122.50 post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock rallies above $125.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM ±7.4% ($113.21-$131.41) but historical misses could amplify downside; calendar spread vulnerable if stock moves far from strike.
!IV crush may be limited if earnings date not fully priced; monitor term structure for kink, but 5/22 IV compression likely.
!Liquidity: sufficient (1.5M OI, 107 active strikes) but watch wide bid-ask spreads on OTM options, especially for calendar legs.
!Sizing: reduce position size due to negative GEX (-$10.4M) amplifying moves below $120; calendar spread has defined risk but requires precise timing.

What to Watch

?IV term structure for kink confirming earnings date and compression in 5/22 expiration
?Spot action near $125 for calendar spread pinning
?Unusual OTM put flow continuation
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.