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BABA

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedClose $135.64EOD only

Max Pain

$134.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.33

3.9% from close

Price Gap

-1.64

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.69

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BABA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

BABA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with upside magnet to $130. Confidence: 7.5/10. GEX trending negative favors directional moves; net premium -$28.5M and P/C 0.64 indicate put selling/hedging. Spot below max pain $124-130 creates gravitational pull higher. Conflict: IV 50.1% is high, adding cost to long premium.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5; GEX/flow aligned for bullish drift, but high IV tempers edge.

Supports: GEX -$10.4M trending, net premium -$28.5M put-heavy, spot 1.4% below MP $124.
Conflicts: IV 50.1% rich, gamma flip ~$120 near spot.

📈Max pain ladder rising $124 → $130 over next 3 weeks

⚡GEX -$10.4M trending; dealers hedge against moves, accelerating trends

💰Net premium -$28.5M with P/C 0.64 shows institutional put selling/hedging

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 50.1% vs sector ~40% — rich; selling premium favored.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$10.4M trending; dealers hedge against spot moves, accelerating trends.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net premium -$28.5M with P/C 0.64; put-heavy flow suggests hedging or bullish positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $122.31 below MP $124-130; gravitational pull higher.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder rises $124 → $130 over 3 weeks; GEX sign stable negative; flow regime consistent across expirations.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$113.21$131.41

Max pain $124 for 4/10 expiry dominates; break below $120 invalidates.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $124 (2026-04-10); $130 (2026-04-17); $125 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails:

Support: $120.00 · $117.00 · $115.00

Resistance: $130.00 · $135.00 · $140.00

Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 24,361 (1.9% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall $130-$165 caps upside; put floor $110-$115 from OI clusters.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-10.4M

DEX: +43.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$120 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 24,361 (1.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$120; below accelerates selling, above reduces hedging pressure. +$5.8M GEX at $130 pin magnet.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 50.1% vs sector ~40% — rich; favors selling premium.

Term structure: Humped: 4/10 43.5% > 4/17 41.4% < 4/24 44.1%; kink at 5/22 48.7%.

Skew: 4/10 vs 4/17 ~2.1 vol-pt differential; sell 4/10, buy 4/17 for calendar edge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$28.5M put-heavy; P/C vol 0.64 suggests hedging or bullish positioning.

Directional prints: call 130 OTM 2026-04-10 — Vol 8,729 vs OI 5,468 (1.6x) at $130; likely bought for upside play. put 117 OTM 2026-04-17 — Vol 1,051 vs OI 393 (2.7x) at $117; could be sold for premium or protective put.

Unusual: 49.6 call 200 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol 4,015 vs OI 2,026 (2.0x) at $200; speculative long-dated upside.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip ~$120 breaks support, accelerating sell-off.

!High IV 50.1% may compress, hurting long premium.

!Earnings 5/14 adds event risk; historical misses negative.

!Call OI wall $130-$165 caps rally momentum.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Strong	Buy shares at $122.31; target $130.	Break below $120 triggers gamma acceleration.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid; GEX trending negative and below MP favor upside.	Gamma acceleration against short.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Buy shares, sell $130 call 4/17.	Capped upside at $130; IV crush post-earnings.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $120/$115 put spread 4/17.	Break below $115 max loss.
Long calls	Moderate	Buy $125 call 4/17; target $130.	High IV 41.4% adds cost; theta decay.
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate-Weak	Avoid; regime favors upside.	Gamma trending negative accelerates against.
Iron condor	Moderate	$115/$110P x $135/$140C 4/17.	GEX negative and VIX implied high >28 adds breakout risk.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $130 call 4/10 (43.5% IV), buy $130 call 4/17 (40.1% IV) regular calendar.	Spot moves past $130 erodes edge.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $110 call 2027-03-19, sell $130 call 4/17.	Long-dated IV 44.5% high; time decay on short leg.

Top Plays

Cash-Secured Put Spread

Sell $120/$115 put spread 4/17

Defined-risk premium below gamma flip with bullish drift.

Credit: $0.85-$1.05

Max loss: $4.15

BE: $119.15

Mgmt: Close at 60-70% max profit; stop if spot closes below $117.

Traders wanting defined risk and bullish exposure.

Covered Call

Buy shares at $122.31, sell $130 call 4/17

Income play aligned with max pain pull to $130; caps upside.

Credit: $0.87-$0.92

Max loss: N/A

BE: $121.44

Mgmt: Roll up if spot approaches $130; close if breaks below $120.

Shareholders seeking yield with moderate bullish view.

LEAPS Diagonal (PMCC)

Buy $110 call 2027-03-19, sell $130 call 4/17

Long-dated bullish with income; extra time reduces gamma risk vs weekly.

Debit: $12.45-$13.80

Max loss: Debit paid

BE: $122.45

Mgmt: Manage short leg monthly; close if spot breaks above $140.

Traders with capital for LEAPS wanting reduced theta decay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot tags $120 and holds 1 hour → Sell $120/$115 put spread 4/17

IFIV drops below 45% → Buy $125 call 4/17

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $132 → Take profit on long calls and covered calls

EXITVIX spikes above 35 → Exit all short premium positions

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: bullish drift to $130 driven by max pain ladder and negative GEX. Invalidation: break below $120 gamma flip. Regime favors selling premium below $120 and directional plays. Top plays: put spread for defined risk, covered call for income, LEAPS diagonal for reduced gamma. Choose based on risk tolerance and existing positions.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.