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BABA

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedClose $135.64EOD only

Max Pain

$134.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.33

3.9% from close

Price Gap

-1.64

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.69

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BABA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

BABA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 6, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral with a slight upward pinning bias toward $126-$125. Confidence: 6/10. Spot is pinned between max pain levels and a strong put OI floor at $120, supported by positive GEX. However, net premium flow is bearish, creating a directional conflict.

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot at MP; -1 GEX/flow contradict (bullish pin vs bearish premium).

Supports: GEX +$9.2M (pinning), spot at MP, P/C vol 0.60 (call-heavy volume).
Conflicts: Net premium -$21.7M (bearish), massive put OI at $120 indicating structural hedging.

📌Spot pinned between $126 (3/27) and $125 (4/2) max pain.

⚠️Net premium flow bearish despite call-heavy volume.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 49.6% — elevated but 'Normal' per regime; premium selling is viable but expensive.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$9.2M — positive gamma pinning spot near max pain levels.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — P/C vol 0.60 shows call volume dominance, but net premium is negative, indicating large bearish/hedging prints.

Spot vs Max Pain

At — spot $125.46 is within 0.4% of the $125-$126 max pain cluster, reinforcing the pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent $125-$135 pin across April expirations, and GEX sign is stable positive. The regime is not just a single expiry event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$123.09$127.82

Pinned by Friday's $126 max pain; break below $123.09 (2d EM low) invalidates.

Next 1 week

$119.72$131.20

$120 put OI floor vs $130 call OI resistance; pinning persists.

Next 2 weeks

$117.56$133.36

Max pain rises to $135 by 4/17; flow needs to confirm.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $126 (2026-03-27); $125 (2026-04-02); $125 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $123.09/$127.82; 1w $119.72/$131.20

Support: $120.00

Resistance: $200.00 · $150.00 · $130.00

Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 24,165

Structural: **Call OI walls at $130, $135, $150, $200** cap rallies. **Put floor at $120** (24k OI) is major support. Distant $200+ calls are likely legacy positions.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+9.2M

DEX: +44.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$120 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 24,165)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX concentrated near spot provides pinning. Gamma flip ~$120 is a critical break level; a move below triggers significant dealer short-covering (sell spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 49.6% is very high — BABA-specific vol is rich vs broad market, favoring premium sellers.

Term structure: **Steeply upward sloping** (31.1% 2d → 42.1% 31d). Kink at 5/01 (42.1%) likely pricing May earnings. 2-10 day tenor is cheapest.

Skew: **Large IV differential between 4/2 (31.1%) and 4/17 (37.8%)** — supports calendar spreads selling the higher-IV, longer-dated vol.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$21.7M bearish; P/C vol 0.60, P/C OI 0.73.

Directional prints: $130C 4/10 vol 8,469 vs OI 24,736 — likely closing/selling of calls. $123P & $122P 4/02 high volume vs OI — could be put buying (bearish) or put selling (bullish) for premium. Bearish interpretation aligns with net premium.

Unusual: $165P & $175P 4/17 at IV ~90% — likely far OTM put sales for premium capture, not directional bets.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma flip at ~$120** — break below triggers accelerated selling.

!**Net bearish premium flow** contradicts pinning signal; a large seller may know something.

!**Elevated IV (49.6%)** increases tail risk and cost of long premium strategies.

!**Earnings ~5/14** begins to be priced into May expirations (IV kink).

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Pinning limits upside; bearish flow a headwind.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Positive GEX pinning and $120 floor provide strong support.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $130C 4/17 (~45 DTE)	Capped upside if pin breaks higher.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $120/$115 put spread 4/17	Break below $120 max pain and gamma flip.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $128C 4/17	High IV crush and pinning erode value.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $125/$120 put spread 4/17	Pinning and positive GEX fight the move.
Iron condor	Moderate	$120/$115P x $130/$135C 4/17	GEX positive but VIX proxy >28 (BABA IV 49.6%), so moderate per threshold.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $125C 4/17 (37.8% IV), buy $125C 4/2 (31.1% IV) — reverse calendar	Pin breaks directionally.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $100C 1/15/27, sell $130C 4/17 against it	High LEAPS IV; pin limits short call profitability.

Top Plays

Put Spread (Defined Risk Premium)

Sell $120/$115 put spread, exp 4/17 (17 DTE)

Collects high premium due to elevated IV while defining risk below the key $120 support/gamma flip. Aligns with pinning regime and positive GEX, which defends the $120 level.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $118.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $120.

Traders seeking defined-risk income, comfortable with the $120 pin hold.

Reverse Call Calendar

Sell $125 Call 4/17, Buy $125 Call 4/2

Capitalizes on the steep near-term term structure by selling higher IV (37.8%) and buying lower IV (31.1%). Profits from volatility differential decay and pinning at $125.

Credit: $0.60-$0.80

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; manage at 50% max credit or if pin breaks.

Mgmt: Close spread after 4/2 expiry or if spot moves >$2 from $125. Roll short leg if needed.

Volatility traders; best if you expect spot to hover near $125 through 4/2 expiry.

Covered Call (30+ DTE)

Own shares, sell $130 Call 5/15 (45 DTE)

The longer DTE (45 days) provides more premium capture and time for the multi-week pinning thesis to play out, improving risk/reward vs a weekly. The $130 strike is at a key OI resistance level.

Credit: $3.50-$4.50

Max loss: Unlimited below stock cost basis

BE: Stock cost minus premium

Mgmt: Consider rolling up/out if spot approaches $130. Close if pin breaks below $120.

Shareholders looking to generate income on a stagnant position.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot bounces from $120 support, holds >$121 → Enter $120/$115 put spread 4/17.

IFIV term structure steepens further (4/2 IV < 30%, 4/17 IV > 38%) → Initiate reverse calendar: sell $125C 4/17, buy $125C 4/2.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $119.50 (breaches gamma flip) → Exit all short premium positions (put spreads, calendars).

EXIT4/2 IV rises to match 4/17 IV (term structure flattens) → Close reverse calendar for a loss.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Multi-week pinning between $120 and $130, with a gravity toward $125-$126. Invalidation is a close below $120. The regime favors selling premium (high IV) and range-bound strategies (positive GEX). Top plays: 1) Put spread for defined-risk income, 2) Reverse calendar for vol traders, 3) Covered call for shareholders. Choose based on your existing position and risk tolerance.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.