thetaOwl
HomeOptionsBABAReports

BABA

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedClose $96.14EOD only
Max Pain
$98.00
Next expiry Jul 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.78
5.0% from close
Price Gap
+1.86
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
18
Low premium
P/C OI
0.66
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jul 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BABA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 2, 2026 close
BABA Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Premium sale
Invalidation: Sustained break below 104 or above 110; vol spike
Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 10.8% from MP; +1 VIX 16

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Elevated: avg IV 64.5 vs VIX 16, but near-term IV 35-40%
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steep: front-end 35%, back-end 45%, 0 DTE extreme skew

📈High vol regime supports premium selling, but gamma negative
⚠️Spot far below max pain $120; pin risk low near term

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-48.6M)

OI concentrations: Call OI wall $130-$160; no heavy put OI within 30% below spot

Verdict: Low pin risk: put OI light, max pain far above spot

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $115.00/$117.00 call spread
Sell $115/$117 call spread to collect premium from bearish bias and time decay.
Credit: $0.31-$0.37
Max loss: $1.63
BE: $115.37
Mgmt: Close if BABA breaks above $110 or IV spike.

Risk Alerts

!Negative dealer gamma (-$48.6M) can amplify moves
!Spot 10.8% from MP may drift toward pin
!Mixed flow may cause whipsaw
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.