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BABA

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedClose $135.64EOD only
Max Pain
$134.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.33
3.9% from close
Price Gap
-1.64
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
11
Low premium
P/C OI
0.69
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BABA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
BABA Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7.5 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Sell put spreads below max pain, targeting OI support
Invalidation: Close below $120 gamma flip
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV 50.1% — very elevated vs typical large-cap levels
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Humped at 2026-04-24 (44.1%), elevated across all expirations

💰IV >50% provides rich premium for sellers

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below by 1.4% ($122.31 vs $124.00 nearest max pain)

GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$10.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Below $120, dealers amplify downward moves

OI concentrations: Call wall $130 (24,737 OI), Put wall $120 (24,361 OI)

Verdict: Mixed — negative GEX suggests trending, but OI clusters create local pin magnets

Premium Opportunities

#1
put spread
Sell $120/$115 put spread 2026-04-24 (18 DTE)
High IV provides premium; $120 is major put OI support (24,361 OI) with positive GEX concentration; below max pain but above gamma flip
Credit: $0.85-$1.20
Max loss: $4.15
BE: $119.15
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit; exit if price closes below $120 gamma flip
#2
iron condor
Sell $115/$110P x $135/$140C 2026-04-24 (18 DTE)
Fits within expected move range ($113.21-$131.41); puts target OI support at $110 (8,909 OI), calls target resistance at $135 (17,941 OI) and $140 (22,341 OI)
Credit: $1.40-$1.80
Max loss: $3.60
BE: 113.60/136.40
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; roll untested side if tested side reaches 50% max loss
#3
cash-secured put
Sell $115 put 2026-04-24 (18 DTE)
High IV yields >0.8% ROI in 18 days; strike is 6% below spot and above gamma flip, with OI support at $110 and $115
Credit: $0.97-$1.03
Max loss: $114.03
BE: $114.03
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if tested; close at 80% profit
#4
call credit spread
Sell $130/$135 call spread 2026-04-17 (11 DTE)
Targets max pain pin at $130 (2026-04-17) with strong positive GEX (+$4.1M); $130 is major call OI wall (24,737 OI)
Credit: $0.33-$0.36
Max loss: $4.64
BE: $130.36
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit; exit if price closes above $130

Risk Alerts

!Earnings on 2026-05-14 — close all positions before announcement (never sell naked through earnings)
!Gamma flip at $120 — below this level, negative gamma accelerates downward moves
!Negative total GEX (-$10.4M) indicates trending regime, not pinning
!High IV (50.1%) could compress if volatility subsides, reducing premium
!Unusual activity in $200 calls (2026-07-17) suggests institutional long-term bullish bets
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.