Term structure: Humped at 29-43 DTE (41-42.6%), elevated across the curve
Spot vs MP: Below max pain by 3.1% (spot $122.05 vs MP $126)
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$25.2M)
Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Below $120, dealer hedging amplifies downward moves; above, it dampens rallies
OI concentrations: Major Put Wall: $120 (24,165 OI). Major Call Walls: $130 (23,230 OI), $135 (18,165 OI), $140 (22,319 OI), $150 (26,055 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $115/$110 Put Spread, exp 2026-05-01 (29 DTE)
Strikes are placed below the critical $120 gamma flip and the major $120 put OI wall, providing a strong buffer. The 29 DTE captures peak IV (41.0%) for optimal theta decay. Defined risk is essential in the current trending (negative GEX) regime.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Roll down/out if $115 is breached. Exit entire position if price closes below $113.
#2iron condor
Sell $115/$110P x $135/$140C Iron Condor, exp 2026-05-15 (43 DTE)
Wide, defined-risk structure that respects the OI landscape: puts below the $120 wall, calls below the dense $140 call wall. The 43 DTE IV is high (42.6%) and provides time for management. Expected move is ±$13.88, placing short strikes ~$7 outside spot.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently; roll tested side outward. Close entire position if price breaches $113 or $137.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $110 Put, exp 2026-06-18 (77 DTE)
For sellers willing to take assignment. Strike is $12 below spot and well below the gamma flip, offering a significant margin of safety. High IV (43.4%) yields an attractive ~6.5% return on capital in 77 days. Longer DTE provides more time for recovery if challenged.
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if challenged. Close at 80% profit. Be prepared to accept shares at $110 if assigned.
#4call credit spread
Sell $130/$135 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-24 (22 DTE)
Targets the dense $130/$135 call OI walls. The negative GEX regime above $120 should dampen upward momentum, aiding this bearish spread. 22 DTE offers a good balance of premium (high 40.7% IV) and time decay.
Mgmt: Close at 75% max profit. Exit if price closes above $130. Do not hold through earnings (5/14).
!Gamma regime shift from Pinning to Trending (GEX -$25.2M). Negative GEX means dealer hedging amplifies price moves, increasing risk for untested credit positions.
!Spot ($122.05) is below nearest max pain ($126). This removes a key support magnet and suggests bearish pressure in the near term.
!Earnings estimated for 2026-05-14 (~6 weeks out). Close or roll all short premium positions at least 1 week prior to avoid IV crush and gap risk.
!Negative net premium flow (-$43.1M) and P/C ratios below 1 indicate persistent institutional put buying, a bearish sentiment overlay.
!Unusual activity in deep OTM long-dated puts (e.g., $20 Put for 2027-03-19 at 83% IV). This may signal tail-risk hedging, warranting caution on naked short puts.
!Max pain trend rises to $135-$150 in later expirations, indicating longer-term OI resistance above current price.