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BABA

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedClose $135.64EOD only

Max Pain

$134.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.33

3.9% from close

Price Gap

-1.64

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.69

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BABA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

BABA Theta Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer theta report is available for April 6, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +1 pinning regime; +1 high IV; +1 spot at max pain; -1 negative net premium flow

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

IV 49.6% — Elevated and favorable for premium sellers

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Humped at 31 DTE (42.1%), elevated across the curve

💰IV ~50% provides rich premium for sellers

📈Term structure humped at May 1st expiration

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At max pain ($126.00) for nearest expiration (3/27)

GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$9.2M)

Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Below $120, dealer hedging would amplify downward moves

OI concentrations: Major Put Wall: $120 (24,165 OI). Major Call Walls: $130 (24,736 OI), $150 (26,239 OI).

Verdict: Highly Favorable — Strong positive GEX and spot at max pain support a mean-reverting, range-bound environment ideal for credit spreads.

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell $120/$115 Put Spread, exp 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)

Targets the major $120 OI put wall and sits above the $120 gamma flip. 31 DTE captures peak IV (42.1%) and provides time for theta decay. Max pain for this expiry is $125, offering a buffer.

Credit: $0.85-$1.05

Max loss: $4.15

BE: $119.15

Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Roll down/out if $120 is breached. Exit entire position if price closes below $119.

iron condor

Sell $120/$115P x $135/$140C Iron Condor, exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)

Plays the pinning range between the $120 put wall and $130/$135 call walls. 17 DTE offers faster decay. Expected move is ±$7.90, placing short strikes just outside (~$5.5 from spot).

Credit: $1.10-$1.35

Max loss: $3.65

BE: 118.90 / 136.10

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently; roll tested side. Close entire position if price breaches $118 or $137.

cash-secured put

Sell $115 Put, exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)

For capital-secure sellers willing to take assignment. Strike is below the critical $120 gamma flip and major OI, providing a strong support zone. High IV yields an attractive premium (~3.5% return on capital in 45 days).

Credit: $3.50-$4.00

Max loss: $111.50

BE: $111.50

Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if challenged. Close at 80% profit. Be prepared to accept shares at $115 if assigned.

call credit spread

Sell $130/$135 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-10 (10 DTE)

Targets the dense $130 call OI wall. Short weekly expiration in a high-IV, pinning regime for rapid theta decay. Max pain for 4/10 is $125, suggesting resistance to a sharp rally.

Credit: $0.55-$0.70

Max loss: $4.45

BE: $130.55

Mgmt: Close at 75% max profit. Exit if price closes above $129.50. Do not hold through earnings (5/14).

Risk Alerts

!Earnings estimated for 2026-05-14 (~6 weeks out). Close or roll all short premium positions at least 1 week prior.

!Gamma flip at ~$120. A break below this level risks accelerated selling pressure from dealer hedging.

!Negative net premium flow (-$21.7M) indicates institutional put buying, a potential bearish sentiment overlay.

!Unusual activity in deep OTM puts ($165, $175 for 4/17) at extreme IV (>88%) — monitor for tail risk hedging.

!Max pain trend rises to $135-$150 in later expirations, indicating longer-term OI resistance above.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.