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BABA

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedClose $135.64EOD only

Max Pain

$134.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.33

3.9% from close

Price Gap

-1.64

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.69

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BABA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

BABA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 6, 2026.

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Outlook

Bearish with a weak floor at $120. Confidence: 6.5/10. Spot is below max pain with negative GEX, indicating a trending regime that can accelerate. Net premium flow is strongly bearish, but the massive $120 put OI provides a temporary structural support.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned bearish; -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP. Override not needed; mechanical score captures the regime shift.

Supports: GEX -$25.2M (trending), net premium -$43.1M (bearish), P/C vol 0.73 (put volume dominance).
Conflicts: Massive $120 put OI (24k) creates a sticky support level, opposing the bearish flow.

⚠️Regime flipped from Pinning to Trending (GEX -$25.2M).

📉Net premium flow -$43.1M is the strongest bearish signal.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 51.4% is extremely high — premium selling has high nominal edge, but trending GEX increases risk of large moves.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$25.2M — negative gamma means dealer hedging amplifies spot moves, creating a trending environment.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — P/C vol 0.73 shows put volume dominance, and net premium is deeply negative, confirming institutional bearishness.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Below — spot $122.05 is 2.4% below the $125 max pain cluster, creating a weak upward magnet but dominated by negative GEX.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative GEX is stable across expirations, and the max pain ladder shows a persistent $125-$135 pin that spot is fighting against. This conflict suggests a drawn-out resolution.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$121.91$122.20

Negative GEX dominates; a break below $120 triggers accelerated selling.

Next 1 week

$116.88$127.22

Trending regime supports downside; $120 OI is the key battle line.

Next 2 weeks

$114.55$129.55

Downside favored unless spot reclaims $125 (MP) to flip regime.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $126 (2026-03-27); $125 (2026-04-02); $125 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $121.91/$122.20; 1w $116.88/$127.22

Support: $120.00

Resistance: $200.00 · $150.00 · $130.00

Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 24,165

Structural: **Call OI walls at $130, $135, $150, $200** are distant caps. The **$120 put OI (24k)** is the critical near-term support and gamma flip level.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-25.2M

DEX: +43.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$120 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 24,165)

NTM gamma: Negative GEX concentrated; dealers are short gamma and will hedge by selling into weakness below $120 and buying into strength above ~$124, amplifying moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 51.4% is extremely rich — unequivocal edge for premium sellers if direction can be contained.

Term structure: **Steeply upward sloping** from 4.6% (0d) to 41.0% (29d). Major kink at 5/01 (41.0%) pricing May earnings. Near-term vol is anomalously cheap.

Skew: **Massive IV differential between 4/2 (4.6%) and 4/10 (35.6%)** — supports reverse calendars (sell far, buy near) for volatility decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$43.1M bearish; P/C vol 0.73, P/C OI 0.75.

Directional prints: $121C 4/02 vol 5,112 vs OI 282 (18x) at 22.4% IV — likely short call sales for premium. $124P 4/10 vol 1,244 vs OI 432 (3x) — could be put buying (bearish) or put selling (bullish) for income. Bearish interpretation aligns with net premium.

Unusual: $20P 3/19/27 vol 6,666 at 83% IV — deep OTM put sale for lottery ticket premium or catastrophic hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma flip at ~$120** — break below triggers dealer selling acceleration.

!**Net bearish premium flow -$43M** indicates strong institutional selling pressure.

!**Elevated IV (51.4%)** increases tail risk and cost of long premium strategies.

!**Earnings ~5/14** begins to be priced into May expirations (IV kink).

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	N/A	Negative GEX and bearish flow are strong headwinds.
Short stock	Moderate-Strong	N/A	$120 put OI provides sticky support; pin risk to $125 remains.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $125C 4/17 (15 DTE) or $130C 5/15 (43 DTE)	Downside exposure in a trending market; capped upside.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell $120/$115 put spread 4/17	Break below $120 gamma flip leads to max loss.
Long calls	Weak	Avoid — high IV crush and negative GEX.	IV crush and trending down.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy $125/$120 put spread 4/17	$120 support holds; pin drift upward to $125.
Iron condor	Moderate	$120/$115P x $130/$135C 4/17	GEX negative, so moderate per threshold. High IV supports but trending regime is hostile.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse call calendar: Sell $125C 4/10 (35.6% IV), Buy $125C 4/02 (4.6% IV)	Spot moves directionally away from $125.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $100C 1/15/27 (45.0% IV), sell $125C 4/17 against it	High LEAPS IV; near-term pin may not provide enough premium.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy $125 Put, Sell $120 Put, exp 4/17 (15 DTE)

Directly expresses the bearish GEX and flow regime with defined risk. Targets a move to the key $120 support level.

Debit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: $2.50

BE: $122.50

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit ($122.50-$123.50). Exit if spot closes above $126.

Traders with a bearish directional view seeking defined risk.

Reverse Call Calendar

Sell $125 Call 4/10, Buy $125 Call 4/02

Capitalizes on the extreme IV term structure kink by selling expensive near-dated vol and buying dirt-cheap tomorrow vol. Profits from volatility differential decay and spot hovering near $125.

Credit: $0.50-$0.70

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; manage at 50% max credit or if pin breaks.

Mgmt: Close spread after 4/02 expiry or if spot moves >$2 from $125. Roll short leg if needed.

Advanced volatility traders comfortable with pinning thesis.

Short Stock Hedge (Put Buy)

Buy $120 Put 5/15 (43 DTE)

The longer DTE (43 days) provides duration for the multi-week bearish thesis to play out while defining risk. Better than a weekly put because high IV decay is less punishing over a longer period, and it covers the earnings date.

Debit: $4.50-$5.50

Max loss: $4.50

BE: $115.50

Mgmt: Hold through a test of $120. Consider rolling down/out if spot drops rapidly. Exit if spot reclaims $125.

Shareholders or outright bears seeking longer-dated protection/direction.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot breaks below $120.50 and VWAP confirms → Enter bear put spread: Buy $125/$120 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot rallies to test $124.50 (approaching MP) → Initiate reverse calendar: Sell $125C 4/10, Buy $125C 4/02.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $126 (reclaims MP cluster) → Exit all bearish directional positions (put spreads, long puts).

EXIT4/02 IV rises above 10% (term structure flattens) → Close reverse calendar for a loss.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Bearish trending regime (negative GEX) with a key battle at $120 support. Invalidation is a close above $126. The regime favors directional bearish plays and volatility arbitrage via reverse calendars. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread for defined-risk downside, 2) Reverse calendar for vol traders betting on the pin, 3) Longer-dated put for shareholders or bears wanting duration. Choose based on your conviction in the $120 break.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.