Earnings Verdict
Earnings expected around 2026-05-14 (38 days out). IV elevated (44.1% for 18d), with a notable 4.6 vol-point differential between 4/24 (44.1%) and 5/22 (48.7%) expirations, creating a reverse calendar spread opportunity. Historical EPS misses (4/4 quarters) and negative net premium (-$28.5M) indicate bearish sentiment. Best strategy: reverse put calendar spread to capitalize on IV differential and theta decay. Key risk: stock moves far from strike, eroding long leg value.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP
Most important: Reverse term structure (4/24 IV 44.1% vs 5/22 IV 48.7%) offers 4.6 vol-point differential for calendar spread; historical EPS misses support bearish bias.
🔄Reverse term structure: 4.6 vol-point differential between 4/24 (44.1%) and 5/22 (48.7%) expirations favors calendar spread.
⚠️Earnings date 2026-05-14 is 38 days out; IV may not be fully elevated yet, but 5/22 IV outlier presents opportunity.
📉Historical EPS misses 4/4 quarters; bearish bias supported by negative net premium.
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Below $120, dealers amplify moves due to negative GEX.
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-05-14 (38 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 4/24 (18d): ±$9.10 (7.4%)
- 5/15 (39d): ±$13.50 (11.0%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Reverse shape: 4/24 ATM IV 44.1% vs 5/22 ATM IV 48.7% (4.6 vol-point differential), with 5/22 as outlier; no sharp kink suggests earnings date not fully priced.
Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts if earnings confirmed, back to ~30-35% range; 5/22 IV likely compresses more.
Skew: Puts slightly richer (P/C OI ratio 0.76) but flow mixed with negative net premium.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 0% (0/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: No move data provided, but EPS surprises: -35%, -25%, -5%, -2% — consistent misses.
Directional bias: Bearish based on EPS misses and negative net premium.
Key Levels
1$120.00
2$125.00
3$130.00
4$135.00
Flow Highlights
Heavy $130C 4/10 buying (8,729 vol vs 5,468 OI, 1.6x)
Near-term upside bet targeting max pain pin at $130.
Large put flow at OTM strikes ($180, $160, $220) with net premium -$8.1M, -$3.7M, -$3.1M
Institutional hedging or bearish positioning far OTM.
Strategies
Reverse put calendar spread
Buy $125P 4/24 (IV 44.1%) / Sell $125P 5/22 (IV 48.7%)
Trigger: Enter now to capture IV differential; close before 4/24 expiry.
Exploits 4.6 vol-point differential between 4/24 (44.1%) and 5/22 (48.7%) expirations; 5/22 IV is outlier likely to compress post-earnings. Bearish bias from historical EPS misses favors put version.
Outperforms: Stock pins near $125, IV differential compresses (5/22 IV crushes more than 4/24), and theta decay on short leg outpaces long leg.
Underperforms: Stock gaps far from $125 (>±$10) or IV rises uniformly.
Short strangle
Sell $115P x $135C 4/24
Trigger: Enter if earnings date confirmed and IV spikes >45%
IV elevated (44.1%) with flat term structure; historical EPS misses suggest muted reaction, but risk of pinning near $130.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $115-$135, IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM bounds (>±$9.10).
Put debit spread
Buy $125P / Sell $120P 4/24
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if spot breaks below $125.
Historical EPS misses and negative net premium (-$28.5M) support bearish bias; targets support at $120.
Outperforms: Stock drops below $122.50 post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock rallies above $125.
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: EM ±7.4% ($113.21-$131.41) but historical misses could amplify downside; calendar spread vulnerable if stock moves far from strike.
!IV crush may be limited if earnings date not fully priced; monitor term structure for kink, but 5/22 IV compression likely.
!Liquidity: sufficient (1.5M OI, 107 active strikes) but watch wide bid-ask spreads on OTM options, especially for calendar legs.
!Sizing: reduce position size due to negative GEX (-$10.4M) amplifying moves below $120; calendar spread has defined risk but requires precise timing.
What to Watch
?IV term structure for kink confirming earnings date and compression in 5/22 expiration
?Spot action near $125 for calendar spread pinning
?Unusual OTM put flow continuation