Home Options BABAReports

BABA

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedClose $110.97EOD only

Max Pain

$125.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.05

2.8% from close

Price Gap

+14.03

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.59

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BABA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 16, 2026 close

BABA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias from negative gamma and bearish flow, but dealer long delta and VIX cap limit downside; expect range-bound weakness toward support.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -1 spot 10.5% below MP; +0.5 VIX 18 => net 6.5.

Supports: Dealer long delta (+48.8M shares), support at $104.44, VIX at 18 limiting panic.
Conflicts: Negative gamma (-$42.6M) amplifies selling, bearish flow, spot far below max pain.

📉Negative GEX amplifies downward moves on selloffs.

📌Max pain $120-$122 suggests eventual upside pin, but near-term bearish.

🛡️Dealer long delta provides cushion near $104 support.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated relative to typical, consistent with high vol regime amid events.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative gamma (-$42.6M) suggests dealer hedging amplifies directional moves.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net premium flow bearish as per regime classification.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot 10.5% below max pain pins, indicating downward pressure but potential mean reversion.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple near-term expiries (6/18, 6/26, 7/2) with high OI create event-driven dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$105.30$109.59

Range $105.30-$109.59; support $104.44 likely tested.

Next 1 week

$102.36$112.52

Range $102.36-$112.52; max pain $114 caps upside.

Next 2 weeks

$104.44$110.45

Range $104.44-$110.45; support and resistance hold.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $120 (2026-06-18); $114 (2026-06-26); $122 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $105.30/$109.59; 1w $102.36/$112.52

Support: $104.44

Resistance: $110.45

Structural: Max pain $120 (6/18), $114 (6/26), $122 (7/2); EM guardrails 2d $105.30/$109.59, 1w $102.36/$112.52; support $104.44, resistance $110.45.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-42.6M

DEX: +48.8M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX -$42.6M (negative gamma), DEX +48.8M shares (long delta); no gamma flip within 30%.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX due to stock-specific events; rich for directional plays.

Term structure: Near-term expiries show elevated IV; structure likely contango given event clustering.

Skew: Skew put-heavy; consider call spreads if expecting rebound to max pain.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$749.7M, put/call vol ratio 2.95 bearish, OI ratio 0.57 bullish, overall bearish flow.

Directional prints: 302.5 put 160 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 28647 vs OI 4038 (7.1x). Likely opened, bearish direction or hedge. 257.6 put 150 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 26146 vs OI 3903 (6.7x). Similar bearish interpretation.

Unusual: 429.3 put 200 ITM 2026-06-18 — Extreme IV 429% and high vol/oi 7.3x on deep ITM put, highly unusual.

Risks & Catalysts

!Sharp rally if spot moves toward max pain levels

!Dealer gamma squeeze absent flip, but negative GEX amplifies selloffs

!Broader market weakness (SPY/QQQ downtrend) adds downside pressure

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $100.00/$90.00 put spread Why now: Bearish flow, negative gamma, and VIX cap limit downside but support tests likely.	Sharp rally if spot moves toward max pain levels (dealer gamma flip). Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (62%).
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $100.00 put Why now: Negative gamma and bearish put/call vol ratio favor outright put purchase.	Theta decay if spot holds; potential sharp rally tail risk.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-08-21 $120.00/$135.00 call spread Why now: Range-bound weakness expected; sell OTM call premium near resistance.	Upside breakout above short strike; gamma risk near expiration.

Top Plays

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $120.00/$135.00 call spread

Sell OTM call spread near resistance to profit from capped upside.

Why this play: Best for range-bound weakness with defined risk and premium collection.

Credit: $1.77-$2.16

Max loss: $12.84

BE: $122.16

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks above $110.45 invalidation.

Traders expecting limited downside and sideways chop.

Long Put

Buy 2026-08-21 $100.00 put

Outright put purchase to profit from downside, but lower probability in range-bound scenario.

Why this play: Direct bearish play on negative gamma and bearish flow.

Debit: $3.24-$3.96

Max loss: $3.96

BE: $96.04

Mgmt: Set stop loss at $3.96 entry; roll if spot holds support.

Aggressive traders seeking high payout on a breakdown.

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $100.00/$90.00 put spread

Buy put spread to target defined downside, but liquidity_pass false.

Why this play: Limited risk bearish play, but liquidity issues reduce appeal.

Debit: $2.22-$2.72

Max loss: $2.72

BE: $97.28

Mgmt: Monitor liquidity; exit early if wide spreads persist. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (62%).

Risk-averse traders willing to accept illiquidity.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds below 110.45 resistance and above 104.44 support. → Sell 2026-08-21 $120/$135 call spread for 1.77–2.16 credit.

IFSpot breaks below 104.44 support. → Buy 2026-08-21 $100 put for 3.24–3.96 debit.

IFSpot breaks below 104.44 support with bearish follow-through. → Buy 2026-08-21 $100/$90 put spread for 2.22–2.72 debit (low liquidity).

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot rallies above 110.45 invalidation. → Exit all bearish positions to limit losses.

Tactical Summary

BABA bearish bias with range-bound weakness. Key support 104.44, resistance 110.45. If spot holds below resistance, sell call credit spread for premium. Breakdown below support triggers long put or bear put spread. Exit if spot breaks above 110.45. Max pain at $120–122, so upside capped. Monitor gamma flip for shift.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.