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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $402.17EOD only

Max Pain

$385.00

Next expiry Apr 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.82

2.2% from close

Price Gap

-17.17

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.19

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 21, 2026 close

AVGO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias: dealers net long gamma into near expiries with buy-side accumulation supporting drift higher and localized pinning; downside risk if a large sell-off overwhelms gamma near $390 max-pain.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 pinning; -1 spot distance

Supports: Expiry-concentrated dealer long gamma, buy-side accumulation into near-dated strikes, clustered max-pain levels.
Conflicts: Spot above MP and elevated IV raise mean-reversion and cost of directional longs.

📌Near-term dealer GEX concentrated in 3/25 and 4/1 expiries — supports short-term pinning

⚖️Spot ~8% above $390 MP — increases mean-reversion risk toward $390–$400

🔍IV elevated front-week; prefer buying targeted protection over blind premium selling

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Front-week IV elevated vs VIX; term premium high into pin dates.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Dealer long gamma concentrated in near expiries: 3/25 GEX +$42M (OSI highest 420–430 strikes), 4/1 GEX +$30M (top OI 435), 4/15 GEX +$19M; flip remains near ~$300.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Buy-side accumulation (net premium buy) into 420–440 strikes in the next two expiries—flow is buyer-driven rather than dealer-selling; supports pinning where OI clusters.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot sits ~8% above $390 MP; clustered OI at 420–435 creates drift up but also mean-reversion vulnerability to MP on large outflows.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained concentrated GEX across consecutive near expiries plus buy-side premium into the same strike bands.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$410.12$435.17

Trade inside $410–$435; pin pressure from 3/25 strikes around 420–430

Next 1 week

$406.20$439.10

Drift toward $406–$439 if buy-flow holds; watch 4/1 expiry pin at ~435

Next 2 weeks

$394.92$450.37

Range widens; upside capped near 450 unless fresh catalysts shift OI

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $390 (2026-04-22); $375 (2026-04-24); $400 (2026-04-27)

EM guardrails: 2d $410.12/$435.17; 1w $406.20/$439.10

Support: $394.92 · $390.00

Resistance: $450.00 · $450.37

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 12,985 (29.0% below spot)

Structural: Supports: $394.9 (near-term put cluster), $390 (max-pain). Resistance/pin: $420–435 driven by 3/25 top OI 420–430 and 4/1 concentrated OI at 435 (expected pin windows: 3/22–3/25 and 3/29–4/1). Secondary resistance ~450 tied to further out OI and short-covering.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+91.2M

DEX: +53.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 12,985 (29.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Aggregate GEX +$91.2M split by expiry: 3/25 +$42M (OSI high around 420–430; top strike OI 425), 4/1 +$30M (top OI 435), 4/15 +$19M. Dealers long gamma near spot; concentration of put OI below supports pinning until expiries roll.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is rich vs VIX (~19); front-week IV elevated particularly into 3/25 and 4/1—raises cost of directional longs and value of protection.

Term structure: Front-week IV shows kinks at 3/25 and 4/1 pin dates, mid-term flattens after 4/15.

Skew: Put-heavy skew below spot; flow is buy-side into near-dated strikes, so avoid naïve selling of near-dated premium—actionable idea: buy targeted OTM protection (e.g., 390–400 puts) or sell far OTM premium beyond 450 where dealer exposure is thinner.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium strongly positive (~$373M); call-heavy volume with P/C vol 0.48 but put-call OI >1 suggests mixed hedging/rolls.

Directional prints: 18 call 420 ITM 2026-04-22 — Huge same-day block: vol 21,708 vs OI 2,154 (vol/oi 10.1). Likely directional call buys or call-heavy sell-to-open hedges; reads bullish. 9.7 call 425 OTM 2026-04-22 — 13,941 vol vs OI 149 (vol/oi 93.6) — aggressive intraday call buy/block; strong bullish directional signal. 6.4 call 422.5 ITM 2026-04-22 — 10,903 vol vs OI 109 (vol/oi 100) — another large call sweep reinforcing bullish flow.

Unusual: 31.3 put 405 OTM 2026-04-22 — 6,606 vol vs OI 137 (vol/oi 48.2). Notable put flow—possible protection or structured sell; keeps skew activity present.

Risks & Catalysts

!Large market sell-off that overwhelms dealer gamma and breaches $390 max-pain

!Front-week IV spikes making protection costly

!Rapid unwind of concentrated OI in 420–435 strikes shifting dealer hedging

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-06-18 $420.00/$390.00 put spread Why now: Market showing buy-side accumulation and large call flow; sell puts to collect premium while keeping defined downside; pick expirations that survive earnings (reduce roll/assignment risk).	Large market sell-off or IV spike into front-week could breach strikes and widen losses.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-06-18 $390.00/$380.00 put spread Why now: Bullish dealer gamma and buy-side accumulation support drift higher; defined-risk premium sale benefits if downside remains above max-pain ~390.	Front-week IV spikes or a large sell-off that breaches 390 can make the short put vulnerable.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-18 $420.00/$460.00 call spread Why now: Upside convexity desirable given call-heavy flow and positive net premium; defined debit limits downside if vol reprices.	IV could rise into earnings making debit more expensive; upside capped by sold call.
Cash-secured put	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-06-18 $390.00 cash-secured put Why now: Collect premium while targeting an entry below current levels; aligns with multi-week bullish posture and positive call flow.	Assignment into a sudden post-earnings gap lower or IV spike raising short-put replacement cost.

Top Plays

Sell Jun18 420/390 put spread

Sell 2026-06-18 $420.00/$390.00 put spread

Wider put spread to monetize elevated call-side flow while keeping defined loss and favorable theta.

Why this play: Higher premium (net credit ~3.8% of notional) with concentrated OI: ~6k contracts between 400–420 and put deltas aggregated around -0.28; IV term structure flattens in Jun, reducing short-gamma risk.

Credit: $11.09-$13.56

Max loss: $16.44

BE: $406.44

Mgmt: Monitor OI shifts in 420–435, tighten/roll if put delta exposure exceeds -0.45 or if 3‑day volume/price shows sustained downside.

Traders comfortable with larger notional and moderate drawdown.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF AVGO > 395 and stays >394.92 for 3 trading sessions → THEN sell Jun18 390/380 put spread, size 2 contracts, limit price 3.30 (mid)–3.66 (offer), GTC limit order; max assignment risk = 2000 per spread

IFIF AVGO breaks above 420 on >1.5x avg daily volume or rallies toward 420 with bullish orderflow → THEN buy Jun18 420/460 call spread, size 1–2 contracts, limit price 14.76–18.04, limit/IOC if urgency; reduce size if IV30d >40%

IFIF willing to own stock and delta of Jun18 390 put ≤ -0.30 → THEN sell Jun18 390 cash-secured put, size 1–3 contracts, limit premium 16.83–20.57, use limit GTC and set buy-to-close protective order at +50% of premium collected

IFIF approaching earnings window (≤5 trading days pre-earnings) → THEN avoid new short-put/defined-risk sells; either close/roll existing short-put exposure or hedge with 10–20 delta long calls sized to cover 50% vega risk; reopen after 2 trading days post-earnings if IV normalizes

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF position realized/unrealized gain ≥50% of max profit → THEN reduce size by 50%: close half the contracts at mid/offer or enter limit to take remaining off if marketable

ADJIF IV30d increases ≥5 absolute percentage points or ≥20% relative vs entry (or front-week IV increases ≥10pp) → THEN reduce net short exposure: buy-to-close 1/2 of short-put spreads OR roll down 10–20 strikes for net debit up to 30% of premium; monitor 7–30d expirations first

Exit Triggers

EXITIF AVGO closes <390 decisively (2 consecutive daily closes) or market-wide liquidity shock and IV30d rises >30% from entry → THEN close/roll all short-put exposure immediately (buy-to-close), exit call spreads if price <395 or take full-profits if IV collapses >20% from entry

Tactical Summary

Multi-week bullish bias: prefer defined-risk bullish spreads and cash-secured put size management; key invalidation 394.92, major risk at 390. Monitor IV30d and front-week IV numerically (triggers at +5pp/+10pp); handle earnings by closing/hedging within 5 days pre-event and reassessing 2 days post-event.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.