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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $406.54EOD only

Max Pain

$372.50

Next expiry Apr 20, 2026

Expected Move

±$21.47

5.3% from close

Price Gap

-34.04

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.13

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 17, 2026 close

AVGO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 17, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term pin near $365-$360 and upside skew into $380; Confidence: 7.0/10. Primary supports: large positive GEX $58.8M concentrated at $365/$360, heavy bullish net premium $277.7M on near-ATM calls, and EM guardrails $362.92/$380.17 that bracket the move; conflict: max pain cluster and longer-term MP trend lower (320→310) that argues for eventual mean reversion lower if pin fails.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 7.0 (pre-computed): +GEX magnitude and bullish flow; no single imminent catalyst to override; downside MP trend noted but currently secondary to strong pinning GEX.

Supports: GEX +$58.8M with concentrated pin magnets at $365/$360; Net premium +$277.7M heavily weighted to calls (top flows at $370/$380/$400).
Conflicts: Max pain levels clustered $320-$330 across expirations and MP trend falling (320→310) — structural put floor $220-$300 could attract downside; IV elevated (avg IV 54.7%) raises cost to buy directional.

📌GEX pin magnets at $365 and $360 are the strongest near-term price anchors (GEX +$1.7M at $365, +$1.0M at $360).

📈Large call-driven premium at $370/$380/$400 ($26.5M/$20.2M/$24.7M net) — dealers expected to hedge calls which reinforces pin; skewed bullish flow.

⚠️Max pain is far below spot ($320 today, multi-expiry downtrend) — failure of the pin could cascade toward the gamma flip near $300.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol regime: Avg IV 54.7% with ATM term structure spiking to ~52% at 10d and elevated across front month → selling premium has richer prices but blowup risk from IV jumps.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: positive GEX $58.8M concentrated at $365/$360 creates an upside magnet and compresses realized range inside EM guardrails; dealer delta hedging will buy into weakness toward those levels.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish: net premium +$277.7M and P/C vol 0.55 indicating call-heavy activity; flow is skewed to buying calls around $370-$400, consistent with dealer short-call hedging that supports spot near pin.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $371.55 is above current MP points ($320-$330), creating tension: near-term pin holds upside bias but structural MP trend is lower, so positioning is vulnerable if pin breaks.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning GEX concentrated across the next two expiries but MP trend and deep OI across expirations suggest the regime will persist 2-4 weeks (prefer 30-45 DTE for base trades; weeklies for tactical overlays).

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$362.92$380.17

Pin magnets at $365/$360 keep downside capped; sustained buying around $370 could push to $380 (breach >$380.17 extends upside).

Next 1 week

$363.45$379.65

Dealer pinning + call flow should keep price inside guardrails; failure below $363.45 likely triggers move toward $345-$350 band.

Next 2 weeks

$345.95$397.15

If flow continues and IV stays elevated, upside can test $397; breach below $345.95 suggests pin failure and rotation toward MP levels.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $320 (2026-04-10); $330 (2026-04-13); $325 (2026-04-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $362.92/$380.17; 1w $363.45/$379.65

Support: $365.00 · $360.00 · $350.00

Resistance: $380.17 · $390.00 · $400.00

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,147 (19.3% below spot)

Structural: Structural put floor concentrated $220-$300 (gamma flip ~ $300); if spot collapses below $300 dealers flip to negative gamma and downside acceleration likely; long-term resistance caps cluster $390-$450 from large call OI.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+58.8M

DEX: +47.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,147 (19.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive NTM gamma concentrated at $365/$360 means dealers buy dips into those strikes; if spot moves -2% (~$364) dealers increase long-delta hedges (buy stock) which should slow declines; if spot moves +2% (~$379) dealers sell stock into strength to hedge short calls, exerting resistance near $380-$390.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 54.7% — rich vs general market (VIX lower typically) so premium selling is attractive but elevated IV implies larger tail-risk pricing.

Term structure: Front-week kink: 3d ATM 37.6% → 5-10d up to 52.2% then levels ~45-50% out to 98d, creating pockets to sell near-term or structure calendars; 10d IV spike indicates event- or supply-driven short-dated risk.

Skew: Skew toward calls in flow; mispriced vol opportunity: sell 5/15 ATM (45.8%) and buy 4/13 ATM (37.6%) yields ~8.2 vol-pt edge by selling higher-IV leg (reverse calendar).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $277.7M bullish; heavy call concentration at $370/$380/$400 favors shorting call-biased premium structures or selling puts with defined risk.

Directional prints: 44.5 call 370 ITM 2026-04-15 — Large traded flow at $370 (top premium flow $42.1M call vs $15.6M put) — could be buy-calls (directional) or dealers selling/structuring; more consistent with buy-calls given P/C vol 0.55. 48.1 call 390 OTM 2026-05-01 — Unusual activity: 5/1 $390C vol/OI spike (2,324/220) — directional call accumulation or protection; aligns with bullish flow.

Unusual: 44.7 put 370 OTM 2026-04-17 — Unusual: 4/17 $370P print (Vol 1,467 / OI 103) — could be long-put hedge or selling into heavy call buying; context favors hedge bought by institutions given call-heavy flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $300 — structural downside acceleration if pin breaks below $350 then $325 (MP cluster).

!Max pain cluster $320-$330 across expirations — persistent selling pressure if pin fails.

!Elevated IV (avg 54.7%) and 10d IV spike to 52.2% — short premium can be profitable but vulnerable to IV jumps; event-risk into late-April.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at market $371.55	IV elevated and MP trend lower; downside to $320-$300 possible.
Short stock	Weak	Short shares intraday on failed hold below $365	Dealers buy dips into pin; short gamma risk if price reverts to $380.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy 100 shares + sell 4/15 $380 call	Limited upside; short call hedging may be taxed if strong gap up.
Cash-secured put / Put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/15 $350/$340 put spread	Pin failure below $345 accelerates losses to max loss $10 wide minus credit.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 5/15 $385 call	High IV; expensive premium and theta decay.
Long puts / Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 5/15 $360 / sell $350 bear put spread	Costs high IV; protective if you expect pin failure.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/15 $340/$320 put x $390/$400 call condor	IV spike or directional break beyond guardrails causes large loss on one side.
Calendar / Diagonal	Moderate	Sell 5/15 ATM (45.8% IV) / Buy 4/13 ATM (37.6% IV) — reverse calendar at $370 (sell higher-IV longer leg)	Selling longer-dated higher-IV leg is a reverse calendar; requires managing carry and vega; benefits if IV mean-reverts and spot remains near strike.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 5/15 $350 LEAPS-like base (35d) and sell 4/13 $370 call short-term (sell higher IV leg)	Capital intensive; requires spot not to rally past short call entirely.

Top Plays

Defined Put Spread (30-45d)

Sell 5/15 $350/$340 put spread

Trade sells elevated IV and collects premium inside dealer pin range; aligns with positive GEX (dealers buy dips).

Credit: $0.70-$1.10

Max loss: $9.30

BE: $349.30

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max credit; cut if spot <$345 or IV > +8 pts.

Traders wanting defined-risk income across multi-week thesis

Iron Condor (30-45d)

Sell 5/15 $340/$320 put x $390/$400 call condor

Collects rich premium with positive GEX pinning centrally; wings reference EM bounds ($345-$397) and large call OI at $390.

Credit: $1.20-$2.00

Max loss: $18.80

BE: $340+credit and $400-credit

Mgmt: Close one side at 50% loss or roll wings outward if one side trades against you and IV rises.

Accounts that can absorb defined risk and prefer neutral-to-slightly-bullish exposure

Tactical Short-Dated Put Spread (weekly overlay)

Sell 4/20 $365/$360 put spread

Tactical, high-probability short around the strongest pin magnets ($365/$360) to harvest front-week theta with dealers buying dips.

Credit: $0.55-$0.90

Max loss: $4.45

BE: $364.45

Mgmt: Take 50-70% profit; cut if spot <$360 or daily volume shows surge into puts.

Traders seeking quick premium and able to monitor intraday gamma

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $365 and holds for 30 minutes → Sell 4/20 $365/$360 put spread

IFIf spot pulls back to $350 and IV <= 48% → Sell 5/15 $350/$340 put spread

IFIf spot stalls near $372-$380 and front-week IV declines >3 vol-pts → Sell 5/15 $340/$320 put x $390/$400 iron condor

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX-like realized vol or IV spikes +8 vol-pts or spot <$345 → Exit all short premium (put spreads, condors) and switch to protective long puts (buy 5/15 $350 put)

EXITIf trade reaches 60-70% of max profit → Take profits on short premium positions

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealers are pinning AVGO near $365-$360 and bullish call flow supports range-bound upside to ~$380; invalidation: sustained close below $345 (breach of EM lower band) which signals pin failure and rotation to MP $320-$300; regime favors defined-risk short premium across 30-45 DTE (sell put spreads / iron condors) and tactical weeklies around the $365/$360 pin for active traders.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.

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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.