thetaOwl
HomeOptionsAVGOReports

AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $411.07EOD only
Max Pain
$420.00
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.95
2.4% from close
Price Gap
+8.93
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
30
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.19
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
AVGO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by strong bullish flow and positive gamma pinning near $420 resistance. High vol suggests potential breakout towards $454.8 within two weeks, with support at $367.35 providing downside buffer.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 5 +2 from GEX/flow alignment, +1 from positive gamma pinning, +0.5 from VIX at 18; total 8.5 reflects strong conviction.
Supports: Bullish flow, positive gamma, price below resistance, support at $367.35.
Conflicts: High vol can cause sharp reversals; spot below max pain may cap upside without catalyst.
🟢Bullish flow: net premium buying suggests institutional accumulation.
🟡Gamma pin: +$10.1M GEX pinning price near $420 through weekly expiry.
🔴Flip risk: put wall at $300; a break below could trigger gamma short cascade.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV is high relative to typical, reflecting uncertainty around earnings/events; opportunity for premium sellers but requires caution.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Total gamma positive at +$10.1M, providing pinning attraction near $420 OI concentration; flip risk at ~$300 put wall.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Net bullish premium flow with elevated call buying; put/call ratio low, supporting upside bias.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot trading below max pain ($420), suggesting upward drift towards expiration as dealers hedge.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Upcoming weekly expiry and concentrated gamma at $415-$422 create short-term directional dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$401.12$421.02
Resistance at $421.02; breakout above $420 triggers further upside.
Next 1 week
$390.55$431.60
Gamma pinning may extend rally into expiry.
Next 2 weeks
$367.35$454.80
Structural support at $367.35 provides downside buffer.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $420 (2026-05-20); $415 (2026-05-22); $422 (2026-05-26)
EM guardrails: 2d $401.12/$421.02; 1w $390.55/$431.60
Support: $367.35
Resistance: $420.00 · $450.00 · $454.80
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,554 (27.0% below spot)
Structural: Max pain pins: $420 (May 20), $415 (May 22), $422 (May 26). EM guardrails: 2d $401.12/$421.02; 1w $390.55/$431.60. Support: $367.35. Resistance: $420, $450, $454.80. Gamma flip: ~$300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+10.1M

DEX: +46.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,554 (27.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Total GEX: +$10.1M positive; DEX: +46.1M shares long. Gamma flip at ~$300 based on put OI concentration of 14,554 contracts (27% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV is elevated relative to VIX (18), indicating rich options pricing; sellers may consider premium collection but risk of vol expansion.

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to weekly expiry; slight backwardation suggests event risk priced in near term.

Skew: Put skew steep; selling puts at $367.35 support or call spreads at $420 resistance may be attractive.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $70.5M, call volume 1.7x puts, bullish flow.

Directional prints: 52.7 call 435 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 11.0 high; if bought bullish, if sold bearish; net premium suggests bought. 42.7 call 430 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 6.0 above avg; likely bought, bullish. 52.3 call 432.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 5.1 elevated; likely bought.

Unusual: 62.9 put 370 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 80.7 extreme; possible hedge or bearish, but net premium bullish. 48.2 call 445 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 17.0 high; likely bought, aligns with bullish flow. 42 call 415 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 14.3 elevated; if bought bullish, preferred bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip below $300 could trigger accelerated downside.
!High vol environment may lead to unexpected moves in either direction.
!Failure to hold $401.12 could invalidate bullish thesis.
!Earnings/event risk could gap price outside range.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Call diagonalModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $470.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $420.00 call
Why now: High vol and bullish flow suggest breakout; short-term premium sale offsets cost, long call captures upside.
Upside capped if stock surges above short strike early; earnings gap risk.
Bull call spreadStrong
Buy 2026-06-12 $425.00/$460.00 call spread
Why now: Bullish flow and gamma pinning near $420; defined risk for breakout.
Upside capped; downside if support fails.
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-06-05 $380.00/$360.00 put spread
Why now: High vol premium; support at $400 provides buffer.
Break below short strike if sentiment shifts.
Cash-secured putModerate
Sell 2026-06-26 $365.00 cash-secured put
Why now: Bullish bias; willing to own AVGO below $400.
Assignment risk if price drops sharply.
Call diagonalModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-06-05 $445.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $430.00 call
Why now: Upward skew and high near-term vol post-earnings.
Theta decay if move is slow; complex position.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-12 $425.00/$460.00 call spread
Buy $425/$460 call spread for earnings upside.
Why this play: Direct bullish with defined risk; aligns with gamma pinning and breakout potential.
Debit: $9.31-$11.38
Max loss: $11.38
BE: $436.38
Mgmt: Close at 50% gain or at earnings.
Traders seeking defined risk bullish exposure.
#2
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $470.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $420.00 call
Sell Jul $470 call, buy Sep $420 call.
Why this play: Captures upside with premium sold offsetting cost; benefits from vol skew.
Debit: $29.05-$35.50
Max loss: $35.50
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Roll short call if tested; exit if invalidation level breached.
Traders expecting gradual upside with time premium decay.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $380.00/$360.00 put spread
Sell $380/$360 put spread.
Why this play: Collects high vol premium with support buffer; bullish bias.
Credit: $3.89-$4.76
Max loss: $15.24
BE: $375.24
Mgmt: Take profit at 50% max gain; stop loss if price breaks $367.
Traders comfortable with moderate downside risk for premium income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFAVGO price breaks and holds above $420 with volume → Buy AVGO-001 bull call spread at $9.31-$11.38
IFAVGO price holds $401-$421 range with bullish skew → Enter call_diagonal_001 sell Jul $470 call, buy Sep $420 call at $29.05-$35.50 debit
IFAVGO price stays above $380 and daily close above $367 → Sell AVGO-002 $380/$360 put spread at $3.89-$4.76 credit
Exit Triggers
EXITAVGO price drops below $367.35 → Close all bullish positions: AVGO-001, call_diagonal_001, AVGO-002

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with earnings Jun 3, gamma pinning $420. Enter bull call spread on $420 breakout, call diagonal on consolidation, put credit spread on strength. Exit all if price breaks $367.35 support.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.