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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $419.30EOD only
Max Pain
$425.00
Next expiry May 13, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.15
2.2% from close
Price Gap
+5.70
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
42
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.13
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 12, 2026 close
AVGO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish thesis: GEX/flow aligned, spot at MP $420, dealer long. Confidence 9/10.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow; +1 pinning; +1 spot near MP; +1 VIX 18.
Supports: GEX +$40.5M, DEX +50.3M, bullish flow, gamma pin at $420.
Conflicts: High vol, gamma flip far at $300, resistance $450.
📈GEX +$40.5M, DEX +50.3M - dealer bullish.
🎯Spot at MP $420; gamma pinning stabilizes.
⚠️Gamma flip at ~$300 is tail risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High: VIX 17.87, IV ~30% elevated vs VIX.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: GEX +$40.5M, MP $420 attracts spot.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish: net call premium positive, put OI far below.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
At: spot $420, 0.8% from MP.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Gamma pin and high vol point to short-term event; multi-week unlikely.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$403.42$430.17
Range $403-$430; bias to upside at MP pin.
Next 1 week
$399.52$434.07
Range $399-$434; hold $403, target $434.
Next 2 weeks
$383.59$449.99
Range $383-$450; break $450 for upside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $420 (2026-05-13); $380 (2026-05-15); $422 (2026-05-18)
EM guardrails: 2d $403.42/$430.17; 1w $399.52/$434.07
Support: $383.59
Resistance: $420.00 · $449.99 · $450.00
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,489 (28.0% below spot)
Structural: MP $420 (May13), $380 (May15), $422 (May18). Guardrails: 2d $403/$430, 1w $399/$434. Support $383, resistance $420/$450. Flip ~$300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+40.5M

DEX: +50.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,489 (28.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$40.5M, DEX +50.3M shares. Gamma flip ~$300 based on put OI 14,489 contracts 28% below.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 30% vs VIX 17.87; rich due to event premium. Implies higher risk; vol sellers may cap near event.

Term structure: Contango with front-month IV 30% decaying to 25% in back; event kink at May13 expiry. Favor short-dated vol selling.

Skew: Put skew elevated (90% IV puts vs 30% calls). Opportunity: sell $300 puts (tail risk) or buy May13 $450 calls as upside lottery.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium bullish at $69.7M with P/C volume ratio 0.53, strong call bias.

Directional prints: 13 call 415 ITM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI ratio 20.3, suggests aggressive buying; likely bought as bullish. Preferred read: bought calls. 9.1 call 417.5 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI ratio 33.0, indicates heavy buying; likely bought for upside. Preferred read: bought calls. 12.7 call 420 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI ratio 12.8, suggests accumulation; likely bought as lottery. Preferred read: bought calls.

Unusual: 31.3 call 435 OTM 2026-05-13 — High IV 31.3% and volume 8356 vs OI 1065; likely aggressive OTM call buying. Unusual. 23.4 call 430 OTM 2026-05-13 — Volume 8313 vs OI 1897; elevated activity in OTM call. Unusual flow. 12.7 call 422.5 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI ratio 5.4, moderate; but low OI and high vol relative. Unusual.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip to $300 on negative catalyst.
!Resistance $450 caps upside.
!High vol amplifies moves.
!Dealer hedge unwind.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Call diagonalModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-07-17 $430.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $410.00 call
Why now: Bullish flow and GEX alignment, spot at $420, resistance $450. Diagonal profits from upward move while mitigating time decay.
If stock drops, long call loses value; short call caps upside above strike.
Put credit spreadStrong
Sell 2026-06-05 $390.00/$375.00 put spread
Why now: Collect rich premium with defined risk.
Loss if spot falls below short strike.
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-05 $420.00/$455.00 call spread
Why now: Defined-risk upside with high IV.
Max loss if spot stays flat or drops.

Top Plays

#1
Bullish Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $430.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $410.00 call
Sell 430c Jul / buy 410c Sep to capture upward drift with limited upside cap.
Why this play: Best aligns with bullish GEX/flow, profits from gradual upside while reducing theta decay.
Debit: $22.52-$27.53
Max loss: $27.53
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Roll short call if tested, or close at 50% max gain.
Trader expecting moderate upside <$450 before Jul expiration.
#2
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-05 $420.00/$455.00 call spread
Buy 420/455 call spread expiring Jun 5 (before earnings).
Why this play: Defined bullish play at ATM+; benefits from high IV but limited upside.
Debit: $11.11-$13.58
Max loss: $13.58
BE: $433.58
Mgmt: Exit if spot below $400 or if IV collapses.
Trader wanting defined risk with earnings uncertainty.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $390.00/$375.00 put spread
Sell 390/375 put spread for credit, betting spot stays above $390.
Why this play: Collects premium with bullish bias, but lower upside potential than other plays.
Credit: $3.74-$4.57
Max loss: $10.43
BE: $385.43
Mgmt: Roll if spot approaches $390, or close at 50% max profit.
Trader seeking income with limited downside risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot holds above $420 with bullish momentum, 1d close >$420 → Enter AVGO_CALL_DIAGONAL_001 at $22.52-$27.53
IFSpot stays above $420 and IV elevated, 1d close >$420 → Enter AVGO_BULLISH_CALL_SPREAD at $11.11-$13.58
Adjustment Triggers
ADJSpot approaches $450 resistance within 2% → Adjust AVGO_CALL_DIAGONAL_001: roll short call up or close at 50% max gain
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot closes below $383.59 (invalidation level) → Exit all positions: AVGO_CALL_DIAGONAL_001, AVGO_BULLISH_CALL_SPREAD

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias (9/10) with spot at MP $420. Entry on strength above $420; target $450 resistance. Invalidation at $383.59 support. Use defined-risk spreads to manage earnings uncertainty.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.