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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $414.14EOD only

Max Pain

$420.00

Next expiry May 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$11.88

2.9% from close

Price Gap

+5.86

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.15

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

AVGO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with short-term pinning pressure but upside call flow; Confidence: 7.0/10; strongest signals are large positive GEX (+$73.5M) concentrated at 350/355/360 (pin magnets) and heavy net premium inflow (+$134.1M) skewed to calls; conflict: spot sits 10.9% above persistent max pain at $320 which creates longer-term downward drift risk.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 7.0 (pre-computed): +GEX size and concentrated pins; +net premium bullish; -spot 10.9% above MP introduces mean-reversion risk not fully offset by near-term pinning.

Supports: GEX concentrations at $350/$355 (dealer buying) and put OI clusters at $300/$265 provide support; EM lower bounds $348.72-$347.96 act as intraday guardrails.
Conflicts: Max pain $320 across expirations (structural downward anchor) vs bullish net flow and concentrated call buying at $360/$370.

📌Pinning GEX: +$5.6M at $360, +$3.5M at $350 and $355 — dealers likely to hedge into these strikes.

🔥Heavy call premium flow: $150/$200/$330/$360 strikes show concentrated call buying (net premiums $21.5M, $9.6M, $8.7M, $7.24M).

⚠️Max pain stuck at $320 across next expiries — structural downward pressure if pin breaks.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol: Avg IV 53.5% with ATM short-dated IVs 40–48% and steepness into 70+ DTE; elevated IV favors defined-risk selling if gamma allows.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: Total GEX +$73.5M with concentrated NTM GEX at 350/355/360 — dealers short gamma near spot, hedging creates pin magnet behavior intraday.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow: Net premium +$134.1M and P/C vol 0.75 shows asymmetric call demand; institutional buying lifting calls around 330–370 strikes.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $354.91 is above max pain $320 (10.9%); near-term pinning fights longer-term MP gravity — expect range around $349–$362 until pin resolves.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning/GEX concentrations persist across the next 2 expirations and MP trend is stable but falling; IV term structure shows elevated mid-term IV — prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$348.72$361.10

Dealer hedging into $350/$355/$360 GEX clusters will pin inside $348.72-$361.10; sustained break >$361.10 requires heavy call unwind.

Next 1 week

$347.96$361.86

Max pain $320 still distant; breakout above $362 likely only if call flow accelerates past $365 resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$330.61$379.21

A drop below $347/EM lower bound opens path to $330.61; sustained upside needs clearing $365 GEX layer.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $320 (2026-04-10); $320 (2026-04-13); $320 (2026-04-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $348.72/$361.10; 1w $347.96/$361.86

Support: $350.00 · $347.96 · $340.00

Resistance: $360.00 · $365.00 · $375.00

Gamma flip: ~$250.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,079 (29.6% below spot)

Structural: Structural call wall at $390 caps upside; put floor concentrated $220-$300 provides long-tail downside protection but is far below spot and not immediate for intraday setups.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+73.5M

DEX: +47.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$250 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,079 (29.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive GEX concentrated at $350/$355/$360 means dealers are short directional exposure near spot and will hedge by buying shares when spot falls and selling when spot rises — that creates pin behavior near those strikes; a ±2% move (~$348–$362) will materially change hedging: a 2% downmove (~$347) will trigger buying from dealers (support), a 2% upmove (~$362) will induce selling (resistance) as call deltas require hedge rebalancing.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 53.5% vs market VIX (not provided) — IV is elevated for a single name, consistent with semiconductor cyclic risk; short-dated IVs 40–48% suggest event-sensitive front-end.

Term structure: Mixed/steep with short-dated ATM 40.0%–48.0% and 70–100D at ~48–49%; mid-dated kink around 11–29d (47.3% and 47.2%) shows demand in near-month/1m tenors.

Skew: Skewed toward calls in premium flow; mispriced vol opportunity: calendar/diagonal selling the higher-IV longer-dated leg (sell 2026-05-01 ~44.8% vs buy 2026-04-13 ~42.8% = ~+2pt edge) into pinning range.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $134.1M bullish; P/C vol 0.75 indicates call-dominant flow but P/C OI 1.11 shows put OI still present.

Directional prints: 44.8 put 350 OTM 2026-04-10 — Large print AVGO260410P00350000 (Vol 4,144 / OI 999) — could be buy-to-open protection or put-selling; in context of net call flow this reads as buying temporary downside hedge (more likely bought puts). 43.5 call 365 OTM 2026-04-10 — AVGO260410C00365000 (Vol 7,199 / OI 1,765) — heavy near-ATM call activity; likely directional call buying or synthetic exposure from institutions; consistent with bullish flow.

Unusual: 58.6 call 380 OTM 2026-04-10 — AVGO260410C00380000: very high burst (4,686 vol vs OI 546) — aggressive short-dated call demand; could fuel short-term upside spikes if exercised or hedged.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$250 is far away but structural put clusters at $300/$265 create long-tail directional risk.

!Expiry concentration: multiple expirations with max pain at $320; if dealers stop hedging the pin, rapid mean reversion towards $320 is possible.

!IV collapse risk: heavy short-dated call positioning can lead to sharp vol crush on calm sessions causing unfavorable fills for long vol buyers.

!Macro/cycle risk: semiconductor or broad market drawdown would harm AVGO quickly given high IV and concentrated short-dated deltas.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy AVGO stock at market $354.91	Vega and drawdown risk; better if paired with downside protection.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	Short AVGO at market with collar or protection	Pin/GEX may produce short-covering squeezes around 350–360.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-01 360 call	Capped upside at 360; delta bleed if stock pops above 365 GEX; assignment risk.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 340 put or sell 340/330 put spread	Max pain $320 and possible drop to $330; need margin for assignment.
Long calls (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-20 365 call for near-term upside run	High theta/IV; expensive given IV 40–50%.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-01 330/320 bear put spread	Costs elevated IV; used as tail hedge against MP pullback.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 340/330 put x sell 360/370 call condor (defined-risk)	VIX spike or directional breakout past 330 or 370; pinned market helps profits.
Calendar/diagonal (reverse calendar)	Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 355 call, buy 2026-04-13 355 call (reverse calendar — sell higher-IV longer-dated leg)	Front-week can gap; selling higher-IV 5/01 (~44.8%) and buying 4/13 (~42.8%) gives ~2pt vol edge but risks front-week pinch/gap.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-12-18 330 LEAP, sell 2026-05-01 360 call (diagonal/PMCC)	Term-structure exposure and assignment risk on short calls; long-dated vega exposure mitigates pin risk.

Top Plays

Sell put spread (defined-risk premium)

Sell 2026-05-01 340/330 put spread

Collect premium against dealer pin/support at $350/$347 while keeping defined downside to $330; benefits from positive GEX and call-dominant flow that pins above lower EM.

Credit: $0.60-$1.10

Max loss: $9.40

BE: $339.40

Mgmt: Take 60% profit if spread falls to 0.24–0.44; cut if spot < $347 with rising IV or if price breaches $330.

Income/defined-risk traders comfortable with assignment

Sell reverse calendar (vol arbitrage)

Sell 2026-05-01 355 call, buy 2026-04-13 355 call (reverse calendar)

Sell the higher-IV longer-dated 5/01 (~44.8%) and buy the lower-IV front-week 4/13 (~42.8%) to capture ~2pt vol edge; benefits if spot holds 350–360 and long-dated IV mean-reverts lower.

Credit: $0.35-$0.90

Max loss: Variable (front leg can blow up if spot gaps beyond strike)

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Buy back short 5/01 leg if spot > $362 or front-week IV rises; take 50–75% profit on the structure's initial credit.

Traders seeking short vega carry and willing to manage front-week gap risk

Diagonal/PMCC (long-term + income)

Buy 2026-12-18 330 LEAP, sell 2026-05-01 360 call (covered/diagonal)

Long-dated bullish tilt while using short mid-term call to finance basis; extra time reduces gamma risk vs short-term straight calls and captures term-structure edge.

Debit: $-8.50-$-6.00

Max loss: Net premium paid (~$6–8.5k per contract)

BE: LEAP breakeven ~ long-leg strike + net debit

Mgmt: Roll short calls monthly if assigned; take profits on LEAP at >50% move or if short leg suffers >60% loss.

Long-term bullish traders seeking income and lower theta decay

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot holds $350.00 for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-05-01 340/330 put spread.

IFIf spot stays between $350.00 and $360.00 into 10:30 ET with low realized vol → Sell 2026-05-01 355 call and buy 2026-04-13 355 call (reverse calendar).

IFIf spot rallies above $362.00 and front-week call IV spikes >55% → Avoid selling front-week calls; consider buying 2026-04-20 365 calls for directional play instead.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot drops below $347.96 (1-week EM lower bound) → Hedge short-premium positions (buy 2026-05-01 340 puts or tighten put spreads to 335/330).

ADJIf spot rises above $365.00 (GEX layer) with >$5M call flow in 30 minutes → Buy back short calls or roll up/out (e.g., roll 360 short to 370/2026-05-01).

Exit Triggers

EXITIf net P/L on sold put spread reaches 60% of max profit → Close the 340/330 put spread to realize gains.

EXITIf spot breaches $330.00 (2-week lower EM bound) or IV >65% → Exit short premium, flip to protective long puts (buy 330/320 bear put)

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week pinning around 350–360 favors defined-risk short premium (put spreads, iron condors) and selling higher-IV longer-dated calls in reverse calendars; invalidation below $347.96 unlocks path to $330 and favors directional protection; top plays: sell 340/330 put spread, sell 5/01 355 buy 4/13 355 reverse calendar, and LEAP diagonal for long-term bulls.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.