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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $411.07EOD only
Max Pain
$420.00
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.95
2.4% from close
Price Gap
+8.93
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
30
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.19
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
AVGO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

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Outlook

Bullish bias driven by strong GEX/flow alignment and positive dealer gamma pinning spot above MP, though high vol and 11.2% distance from MP warrant caution.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; -1 spot 11.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18 → 7.5
Supports: Bullish net flow, positive GEX ($+54M), pinning near $422, low VIX relatively
Conflicts: Spot far from MP ($382), high vol, QQQ down 1.5%
📈GEX/flow strongly aligned – dealers long gamma pinning near $422
⚠️Spot 11.2% above MP – risk of mean reversion if vol spikes

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High – IV elevated vs recent range, consistent with tech selloff and VIX 18.4
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning – GEX +$54M, dealers long gamma, gamma flip ~$300, pinning near $422 max pain
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish – net premium positive, put/call skewed to calls, supporting price
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Above – spot ~$425 vs MP $382, offering resistance but pinning pulling higher
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term expiry pins (2026-05-15/18/20) and positive gamma structure focus thesis on next few sessions

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$415.12$435.27
Support 415, resistance 435; pinning near 422
Next 1 week
$407.69$442.69
Range 408-443; max pain moves to $422
Next 2 weeks
$397.69$452.69
Wider range 398-453; structural resistance at 450

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $382 (2026-05-15); $422 (2026-05-18); $422 (2026-05-20)
EM guardrails: 2d $415.12/$435.27; 1w $407.69/$442.69
Support: $397.69
Resistance: $450.00 · $452.69
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,405 (29.4% below spot)
Structural: Support 397.7, resistance 450/452.7; gamma flip ~300; max pain pins $382 (5/15), $422 (5/18,5/20)

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+54.0M

DEX: +52.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,405 (29.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$54M (long gamma), DEX +52.4M shares; gamma flip ~$300 (put OI concentration 29.4% below spot)

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 18.4 – stock-specific vol elevated amid tech weakness; potential vol contraction if stabilization occurs

Term structure: Likely contango; front-end IV elevated due to near-term events, back-end relatively lower

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling puts at support levels may be attractive given dealer gamma pinning

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $159M, P/C vol ratio 0.59 bullish, OI ratio 1.09 slightly put-heavy.

Directional prints: 49.2 call 415 ITM 2026-05-26 — Vol 2099 vs OI 155 (13.5x). Likely bought as bullish bet; sold possible but IV high favors buying. Preferred read: bullish. 30 call 430 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol 1726 vs OI 223 (7.7x). Opening interest; likely bought for bullish exposure. Preferred read: bullish. 47.8 call 447.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol 1348 vs OI 166 (8.1x). Speculative OTM call buying. Preferred read: bullish.

Unusual: 102 put 240 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 2900 vs OI 135 (21.5x). Deep OTM put; could be sold for premium or bought as tail hedge. High IV suggests sold. Preferred read: neutral bearish. 55.4 call 475 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol 1533 vs OI 128 (12x). OTM call; likely speculative buying. Preferred read: bullish. 47.7 put 422.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol 2194 vs OI 209 (10.5x). OTM put; could be opening bearish position or hedge. Preferred read: cautious bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings or event catalyst not evident; gap risk if broader selloff accelerates
!Spot far from MP creates gravitational pull lower if dealer gamma flips
!VIX 18.4 suggests macro sensitivity – further equity weakness could spike vol

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-05 $420.00/$440.00 call spread
Why now: Net call premium $159M, P/C vol ratio 0.59. Earnings June 3rd—capture upside with defined risk.
If spot stays below short strike or drops, entire premium lost. High IV inflates cost.
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-06-05 $440.00 call / sell 2026-06-05 $410.00 put
Why now: Bullish flow & positive GEX support breakout. Short put at 410 collects premium to fund call.
Short put obligates buy if spot drops below 410; undefined downside if selloff accelerates.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-05 $420.00/$440.00 call spread
Leverages $159M net call premium; profit from $420 to $440 with capped loss.
Why this play: Defined risk suits cautious bullish thesis; captures earnings upside with limited downside, safer than risk reversal given high vol and spot distance from MP.
Debit: $7.76-$9.49
Max loss: $9.49
BE: $429.49
Mgmt: Exit if spot < 397.69; take profit near $440 or at expiry.
Traders seeking defined-risk bullish exposure before earnings.
#2
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-06-05 $440.00 call / sell 2026-06-05 $410.00 put
Buy $440 call, sell $410 put; lower upfront cost but short put exposes to downside.
Why this play: Unlimited upside but high max loss; less suitable due to vol and gap risk.
Debit: $1.60-$1.95
Max loss: $410.00
BE: $410.00
Mgmt: Monitor short put; roll or close if spot approaches $410.
Aggressive traders comfortable with open-ended risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot holds above $397.69 support → Enter bull call spread 420/440 at $7.76-$9.49
IFIF spot holds above $397.69 and bullish GEX continues → Enter bullish risk reversal buy $440 call/sell $410 put at $1.60-$1.95 credit
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF spot approaches $410 short put strike → Roll short put lower or close risk reversal
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot breaks below $397.69 → Close bull call spread or risk reversal
EXITIF spot reaches $440 (max gain) → Take profit on bull call spread

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias, cautious due to high vol and spot distance from MP. Support $397.69, resistance $450/$452.69. Earnings Jun 3. Prefer bull call spread for defined risk; risk reversal for aggressive. Invalidation below $397.69.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.