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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $398.47EOD only
Max Pain
$345.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.71
1.7% from close
Price Gap
-53.47
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.12
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 16, 2026 close
AVGO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias: dealers net-long gamma and sustained bullish flow are pinning AVGO into the upper end of tactical ranges, favoring continuation toward resistance ~420–430 if market breadth holds; downside limited by dealer pinning and support ~392.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base score supported by large positive GEX, dealer long delta and bullish flow; trimmed slightly by spot distance above MP and elevated IV.
Supports: Positive dealer GEX, net long dealer delta, bullish option flow, pinning to higher max-pain levels.
Conflicts: Spot materially above major max-pain cluster; high IV can compress or reprice on negative news.
📌Dealers +83.6M GEX and +56.1M shares delta are pinning price into 420–430 zone
⚠️Spot ~16–17% above concentrated max-pain puts (~$360 gamma flip) — gap risk if flow reverses
📈IV elevated vs VIX—term-kinks around near expiries

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV vs historical for AVGO — options priced rich relative to realized; near-term expiries elevated.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning regime: large positive GEX and concentrated short-dated put OI below spot keeping dealers long gamma and hedged toward higher prices.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Net bullish premium flow — dealers selling premium and positioning to support upside pin.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot sits above multiple max-pain pins (348–372) and inside upper guardrail; price currently biased higher and likely pinned into resistance band.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Short-dated expiries and concentrated OI clusters across next expiries drive near-term pinning and biased continuation.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$385.07$428.01
Dealer GEX pinning toward upper 2d guardrail ~428
Next 1 week
$382.86$430.23
Continuation likely if breadth holds; watch 382–430 range
Next 2 weeks
$392.24$420.84
Mean-reversion risk increases; support ~392, resistance ~420

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $348 (2026-04-17); $372 (2026-04-20); $368 (2026-04-22)
EM guardrails: 2d $385.07/$428.01; 1w $382.86/$430.23
Support: $392.24
Resistance: $420.84
Gamma flip: ~$290.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,147 (28.7% below spot)
Structural: 2d guardrails 385.07/428.01; 1w 382.86/430.23; support ~392.24; resistance ~420.84; gamma flip ≈ $360 (put OI concentration).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+83.6M

DEX: +56.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$290 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,147 (28.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: +83.6M GEX net long; +56.1M shares delta long; gamma flip ≈ $360 (puts concentrated ~16–17% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AVGO IV is rich versus VIX and sector peers, indicating elevated option demand and higher hedging costs — favors premium sellers but increases tail risk for buyers.

Term structure: Steep near-term term-structure with kinks around upcoming expiries where OI clusters, implying event-led repricing risk.

Skew: Put concentration below spot creates skew; actionable to sell short-dated premium against expected pinning, but risky if flow reverses.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium large and positive, call-skewed (P/C vol 0.68); put OI modestly elevated (OI ratio 1.13).

Directional prints: 13.3 put 400 OTM 2026-04-17 — Large same-day 400 put block (vol/oi 25.9). Could be aggressive buy of puts or dealer sell; label uncertain. Request trade timestamp, sweep/contra info to infer execution side. 37.7 call 420 OTM 2026-04-24 — High-volume 4/24 420 calls—consistent with directional call buying or opening call spreads. Execution-side unclear; time/sweep/contra would clarify. 43.8 call 395 ITM 2026-05-08 — Large 5/8 395 calls with elevated IV. Likely leveraged bullish exposure but exact intent (buy, spread, or replacement) is uncertain without contra/timestamp data.

Unusual: 50.5 put 365 OTM 2026-04-20 — Short-dated 365 puts with extreme IV and vol/oi 16.2—unusual sizing; could be hedge or aggressive buying. Need trade-level details to adjudicate. 51.8 call 345 ITM 2026-05-08 — 5/8 345 calls show outsized premium (last 61.37) and atypical size—possible stock-replacement or block buy, but execution-side not confirmed; request sweep/contra/time info.

Risks & Catalysts

!Market breadth reversal erodes dealer pinning and triggers rapid unwind
!Negative corporate/sector news spikes IV and breaks pin; gap to gamma-flip (~$360) exposes large hedging moves
!High IV can compress quickly, creating sharp repricing and liquidity stress

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-18 $420.00/$470.00 call spread
Why now: Dealers net-long gamma, sustained bullish flow and call-skew make a defined-risk call spread efficient into/through earnings; use expiration after 2026-06-03 to capture post-earnings follow-through.
Earnings-driven IV spike or market-breadth reversal can gap/flip liquidity and rapidly compress or widen spreads.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-18 $380.00/$330.00 put spread
Why now: Neutral-to-bullish defined-risk premium sale that benefits from range pinning into earnings. Next earnings expected before 2026-06-18, so 2026-06-18 expirations occur after earnings.
Gap below put wing or IV spike on bad news
Cash-secured putModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-06-18 $380.00 cash-secured put
Why now: Bullish bias with willingness to own AVGO around dealer support ~392–400. Next earnings expected before 2026-06-18, so 2026-06-18 expirations occur after earnings.
Assigned into widened gap or rapid IV compression
Bullish risk reversalConditional
Buy 2026-06-18 $440.00 call / sell 2026-06-18 $350.00 put
Why now: Skewed trade that benefits from strong upside continuation while providing financing via put sale. Next earnings expected before 2026-06-18, so 2026-06-18 expirations occur after earnings.
Large put assignment or IV jump on negative surprise

Top Plays

#1
Buy 6/18 420/470 call spread
Buy 2026-06-18 $420.00/$470.00 call spread
Long-dated call spread captures upside toward 420–430 resistance with capped cost and limited downside if pinning holds.
Why this play: Defined-risk way to express bullish continuation into/after earnings while leveraging dealer net-long gamma and call skew.
Debit: $13.68-$16.72
Max loss: $16.72
BE: $436.72
Mgmt: Enter near mid/low of entry_range; trim into sharp IV compression or sell calls if price nears resistance; cut if price breaks below 392.
Traders wanting directional upside with limited risk around earnings.
#2
Sell 6/18 380/330 put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $380.00/$330.00 put spread
Defined-risk short put spread profits if price stays above ~380, capitalizing on pinning and time decay.
Why this play: Collect premium from range-pinning; favorable if breadth keeps AVGO above dealer support into earnings.
Credit: $11.09-$13.56
Max loss: $36.44
BE: $366.44
Mgmt: Initiate near offered credit; roll/down or close if price trades below 392 or if market breadth deteriorates.
Income-oriented traders comfortable with defined but asymmetric downside.
#3
6/18 440C / 350P risk reversal
Buy 2026-06-18 $440.00 call / sell 2026-06-18 $350.00 put
Long call upside with put financing expresses conviction in continuation while increasing assignment/large-loss risk on downside gap.
Why this play: Asymmetric bullish exposure financed by put sale; highest upside but material tail risk if pin breaks.
Debit: $8.10-$9.90
Max loss: $350.00
BE: $350.00
Mgmt: Monitor IV and breadth; hedge or unwind put leg if negative news or breach of 392 occurs; scale into calls on confirmed follow-through.
Aggressive directional traders seeking leveraged upside and willing to accept assignment risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF AVGO trades ≥420 and 5-day AD% (advances-minus-declines as % of issues) >0 and 5-day avg volume ≥50% of ADV → THEN buy 2026-06-18 call spread: long 420 / short 470, target fill ≤ mid-price of 13.68–16.72; trim 25% on IV collapse ≥20% or target price in 420–430; cut all if AVGO closes <392 on daily basis.
IFIF AVGO is ≥392 and <420 and 5-day AD% between 0 and +3% with 5-day avg volume ≥40% ADV → THEN sell 2026-06-18 put credit spread: short 380 / long 330, take credit within 11.09–13.56; close or roll wider if AVGO closes <392 or 5-day AD% drops below 0%.
IFIF AVGO trades ≥430 and 5-day AD% >+3% and 5-day avg volume ≥60% ADV → THEN enter bullish risk reversal: buy 2026-06-18 440C and sell 2026-06-18 350P (buy call, sell put), target net debit ≤9.9 or net credit ≥8.1 depending on quotes; if assigned on short 350P, buy stock and hedge by selling the 440C or buying protective calls.
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF AVGO breaks and closes below 392 or 5-day AD% falls below 0% → THEN close or materially hedge all bullish and short-put exposure (close call spreads, buy protective puts, or convert short puts to collars); consider moving to flat if AVGO closes <360.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias while AVGO >392; confirmation zone ≥420–430 with volume and AD% thresholds. Primary downside invalidation at daily close <392; deeper gamma-flip/structural risk below ~360.

Read the Directional analysis for AVGO for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.