base 5; +2 strong pinning (GEX +$101.9M); +1 normal IV (48%); -1 spot below max pain; +0 no immediate earnings risk
Term structure: Humps at near-term expirations (26-44% for 4-22 DTE), rising to ~48-50% by June.
Spot vs MP: Spot $314.55 is 1.7% below max pain of $320 for the front week.
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (Total GEX +$101.9M — mean-reverting pressure).
Gamma flip: ~$250.00 — Estimated near $250 based on massive $250 Put OI (14,025). Below this, negative gamma could accelerate moves down.
OI concentrations: Major Put walls at $250 (14,025 OI), $220 (13,914), $265 (13,535), $300 (13,425), $260 (11,589). Call walls at $300 (27,871), $600 (15,468), $390 (15,283), $360 (11,666).
#1put spread
Sell $300/$295 Put Spread exp 2026-04-17 (15 DTE)
Sells into the massive $300 Put OI wall (13,425) with strong pinning support. Positioned well above the critical ~$250 gamma flip zone. 15 DTE captures accelerated theta decay in elevated IV (~44%). Expected move of ±$21.95 provides a 2:1 buffer.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if price closes below $302.50 (below short strike). Roll only if credit >$0.80 for same strikes further out.
#2iron condor
Sell $295/$290 Put Spread & $330/$335 Call Spread exp 2026-04-24 (22 DTE)
Capitalizes on the strong pinning regime and defined expected move (±$27.05). Puts anchor below the $300 OI wall; calls anchor below the $330 max pain for May and the $332.5 unusual call volume. High IV (~44%) provides robust credit for a wide, high-probability range.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently: roll tested side for a credit if possible, otherwise close entire position.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $290 Put exp 2026-05-01 (29 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers comfortable with potential assignment. Strike is below major OI support ($250, $265, $300) and the $250 gamma flip. High IV (~44%) yields >3% ROI in 29 days. Willing to own stock ~7.8% below current price.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if put is tested (price < $295). Close at 70% profit. No assignment risk if comfortable owning at $290.
#4call credit spread
Sell $320/$325 Call Spread exp 2026-04-08 (6 DTE)
Spot is below front-week max pain ($320). Sells into a key resistance level with high OI ($320 Call) and elevated near-term IV (36.1% ATM). Quick theta burn with defined risk. Unusual call volume at $322.5/$327.5 for 4/06 suggests resistance.
Mgmt: Close at 80% max profit (fast decay). Exit immediately if price closes above $318.
!Gamma flip estimated near $250 — a close below this level could trigger accelerated selling as dealer hedging flips from stabilizing to amplifying moves.
!Spot is 1.7% below max pain ($320) — while pinning is strong, there is a short-term gravitational pull higher which could test call credit spreads.
!Unusual Call volume at $322.50, $327.50 (4/06) and $332.50 (4/10) — monitor for increased upside pressure and potential breakout attempts.
!Net premium flow is bullish (+$28.7M, P/C 0.79), indicating institutional buying pressure that could support the pinning thesis but may break it to the upside.
!Earnings next expected 2026-06-03 — no immediate threat, but all positions should be closed or rolled before mid-May to avoid earnings vol crush on longer-dated plays.
!Max pain trend is falling ($320 → $310 over near-term expirations), suggesting a potential downward drift in the pinning anchor.