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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $481.57EOD only

Max Pain

$420.00

Next expiry Jun 5, 2026

Expected Move

±$43.30

9.0% from close

Price Gap

-61.57

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.12

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 2, 2026 close

AVGO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside magnet into the 1-week horizon near $400 driven by heavy call premium, positive dealer GEX (+$82.4M) and bullish net premium (+$740.3M); pre-computed confidence base 7.5/10; strongest signals: large call premium concentration at $300/$360/$400, NTM GEX clusters at $390/$400, and put OI floor around $290-$300 pulling longer-term MP down.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base score 7.5 reflects GEX/flow alignment (+3), modest VIX (18.2) (+0.5) and spot 8.0% above long-term MP (-1); no imminent data missed by formula, so no override.

Supports: 1) Net premium +$740.3M and P/C volume 0.48 show buy-side call flow; 2) NTM GEX concentration +$14.9M at $390 and +$13.7M at $400 creates short-term pin/upside magnet; 3) IV term shows short-dated IV cheap versus 30d (2d ATM 40.5% vs 30d ~45%), enabling calendar/short-dated sales.
Conflicts: 1) Max pain trend is downward (368310), implying structural bearish placement of long-dated puts; 2) Spot is 8.0% above longer-dated MP which can cap extreme upside; 3) Significant put OI clusters at $290-$300 create a longer-term support floor that limits downside acceleration.

4CCNTM magnet: concentrated GEX at $390/$400 means dealers hedge into those strikesexpect mean-reversion toward $400 in next 17 days.

525Vol regime High with concentrated call premium at $300 and $360 indicates persistent skew; short-dated ATM IV (29d) is depressed relative to 3060d trade calendars/diagonals.

6A0Max pain ladder falling (MP trend down to $310 over longer expirations) structural risk for outright long exposure; favors defined-risk bullishs over naked long calls.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High volatility — avg IV 60.6% and ATM IV elevated in mid-term (47–51%) while 2–9d ATM sits ~40–44%, creating event-term kinks that favor calendar/diagonal captures.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning — NTM GEX concentrated at $390 (+$14.9M) and $400 (+$13.7M) makes dealers short-delta-volatile and likely to delta-hedge toward those strikes; gamma flip is distant near $290 so dealer exposure remains stabilizing near spot.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow — net premium +$740.3M and P/C volume 0.48 show buy-call demand; large long-dated call OI (e.g., $300 July) suggests directional accumulation financing shorter-term hedges.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot Above MP — current spot $396.72 is ~8.0% above longer-dated MP cluster (~$366–$370 short-term, longer-term MP tapering to $310) which limits convex upside and implies sellers may defend lower long-dated paints.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Regime persists across expirations (NTM GEX pinning at $390–$400 for 2–16d, flow bullish across weeks, term-structure consistent through 30–90d); prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$385.15$408.30

Drive: concentrated GEX at $390/$400 plus bullish net premium and tight 2d EM $385.15/$408.30 — break above $408.30 requires absorption of $13.7M GEX at $400 and $2.8M at $410.

Next 1 week

$378.72$414.72

Drive: 1w EM $378.72–$414.72; dealer hedging into $390/$400 strikes and unusual $390 put activity will determine if spot holds above $385—failure below $378.72 targets $366–$370 pins.

Next 2 weeks

$366.47$426.97

Drive: 2-week EM $366.47–$426.97; sustained rally above $426.97 requires rotation beyond $420 GEX cluster (+$2.0M) and invalidates short-term pin; breakdown below $366.47 brings MP pins at $367.50/$370 into play.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $368 (2026-04-15); $340 (2026-04-17); $370 (2026-04-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $385.15/$408.30; 1w $378.72/$414.72

Support: $367.50 · $366.47

Resistance: $400.00 · $426.97

Gamma flip: ~$290.00 — Approx based on put OI concentration of 13,162 (26.9% below spot)

Structural: Put floor $220$300 represents long-term support and institutional hedging zone; treat as rebalancing range for large allocators.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+82.4M

DEX: +54.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$290 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,162 (26.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma concentrated at $390 (+$14.9M) and $400 (+$13.7M) — dealers will sell gamma and hedge deltas toward these strikes, creating a sticky zone; if spot trades +2% (~$404) dealers reduce short-delta (selling calls/covering), amplifying upside; if spot trades -2% (~$389) dealers buy stock to hedge puts/calls, creating resistance to further drop but increasing vulnerability if breach below $385.15 triggers larger put-hedging and potential rapid delta unwind toward $370.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV average 60.6% sits rich vs VIX (18.2) on absolute terms but short-dated IV (2–9d ATM 40–44%) is cheaper than 30–60d (45–50%), implying front-end underpricing relative to near-term event moves — favors selling very near-term vol vs buying 30–60d protection.

Term structure: Term structure shows a kink: 2d/5d ATM ~40–42% rising to ~46–50% at 16–64d (peak ~50.2% at 64d), consistent with event / spready demand; use call/put calendars or diagonals to harvest front-end cheapness and own back-month exposure ahead of June earnings (49d).

Skew: Notable skew: heavy call premium concentrated at deep OTM $300/$360 and OTM $400–420 calls; mispriced vol opportunity: sell 2–9d ATM calls (dte 2–9) vs buy 30–45d calls (calendar/diagonal) to capture term-structure steepness and pinning GEX.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Strongly bullish net premium +$740.3M with P/C volume 0.48 and P/C OI 1.13 indicates call-buying skewed to longer-dated strikes.

Directional prints: 41.9 put 390 OTM 2026-04-17 — AVGO 04/17 390P heavy print (Vol 4,030, OI 165) could be bought protection or shorted as part of spreads; given bullish net premium, preferred read is short-dated protective hedges supporting nearby pin at $390. 51 call 360 ITM 2026-07-17 — AVGO 07/17 360C large flow (Vol 30,086 OI 1,988) likely institutional long-call accumulation; alternative read as covered-call financing but overall flow favors directional long exposure. 47.6 call 395 ITM 2026-05-01 — AVGO 05/01 395C (Vol 1,071 OI 380) signals near-term bullish/covered-call activity or call-buying ahead of short-term moves; consistent with dealer hedging into $390/$400 pins and supports short-dated call supply interpretation. 44.4 call 415 OTM 2026-05-01 — AVGO 05/01 415C elevated flow (Vol 1,678 OI 177) bought calls into 1-month view; could be directional bulls or vol buyers ahead of post-earnings positioning.

Unusual: 45 put 380 OTM 2026-04-17 — AVGO 04/17 380P (Vol 2,566 OI 606) two-sided: bought protection or short-dated put sell; in context of bullish net premium, likely protective hedges by bullish holders (preferred read). 47.6 call 395 ITM 2026-05-01 — AVGO 05/01 395C (Vol 1,071 OI 380) flagged as unusual: supports near-term bullish positioning and covered-call activity; must be included in trade reads and management.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings run-up to 2026-06-03 (49d) can reprice mid-term IV and invalidate multi-week diagonal/call ownership plans.

!Breach of 1-week lower EM $378.72/$366.47 would trigger MP pins at $367.50–$370 and likely a rapid dealer delta unwind into protecting puts.

!Rapid rally above $426.97 would require absorption of call GEX at $420/$440 and risks gamma squeeze if dealers cannot hedge; conversely, failure below $385.15 could ignite downside acceleration to $370 due to short-term put demand.

!Macro risk: broad tech strength (QQQ +1.40) supports upside; macro volatility pickup (VIX >22) would steepen IV and punish front-end short vol positions.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $380.00/$377.50 put spread Why now: NTM GEX at $390/$400 and bullish net premium make short-dated put selling favorable; front-end IV is relatively cheap but call flow pins upside—defined-risk put credit captures theta into next 1–2 weeks.	Tail gap below $378.72/EM or fast volatility spike; use defined-width spreads.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $410.00 call / buy 2026-05-22 $425.00 call Why now: 2–9d ATM IV is depressed vs 30–45d; GEX pinning causes dealers to re-hedge into expiries — diagonal captures time-decay and roll advantage into June earnings window.	Roll risk if spot moves through $390/$400; requires active management. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-15 $410.00/$450.00 call spread Why now: Defined-risk bullish is preferred given MP above $366 and resistance at $400; width caps cost and benefits from dealer hedging toward $390–$400.	Loss if rally stalls below short call strike; limited upside compared with naked calls.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-15 $340.00 cash-secured put Why now: EM guardrails 2d $385.15/$408.30 and 1w $378.72/$414.72 provide logical strikes; bullish flow and high call premium imply lower probability of deep drops absent macro shock.	Assignment near $370; use size discipline and avoid selling into volatility spikes.
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-15 $450.00/$490.00 call spread Why now: Large call flow concentrated at $400–$420 and resistance at $400 suggests defined-risk upside selling can collect premium with limited tail risk.	Break above $426.97 invalidates thesis; monitor GEX at $410/$420.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-22 $435.00 call / sell 2026-05-22 $350.00 put Why now: Long-dated call OI (e.g., July $300/400) suggests institutional bullish accumulation; a funded risk reversal taps skew and reduces net premium outlay.	Large downside if puts move ITM; requires margin and risk controls.

Top Plays

Call Diagonal: Buy 30–45d / Sell 2–9d

Sell 2026-04-17 $410.00 call / buy 2026-05-22 $425.00 call

Own 30–45d calls and sell short-dated calls to harvest decay while keeping upside into June earnings; best when you expect continuation or grind higher into $400 without immediate large gap down.

Why this play: Captures front-end cheapness versus elevated 30–60d IV and benefits from dealer pinning at $390–$400 that creates roll advantage for long-dated calls.

Debit: $9.21-$11.26

Max loss: $11.26

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Roll short calls up or out if spot >$400; cut diagonal if IV >55% or spot breaches $378.72. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.

Traders seeking directional upside with limited cost and active roll capability.

Short-dated Put Credit Spread (2–9d)

Sell 2026-04-17 $380.00/$377.50 put spread

Sell a tight 2–9d put credit spread around delta ~0.18 funded by buying lower strike put; collects theta while dealers hedge toward pins.

Why this play: High probability short with pinning GEX at $390–$400 and bullish net premium makes put-credit attractive into the next weekly expiry.

Credit: $0.23-$0.29

Max loss: $2.21

BE: $379.71

Mgmt: Flatten if spot <$378.72 or if short put delta >0.35; maintain width discipline to limit tail loss.

Small/medium accounts wanting defined-risk short premium with quick decay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf AVGO trades ≤ $385.15 (Next 2d lower EM) then → enter cash-secured put selling at strike 380 or 375 exp 2026-05-01 (30–16 DTE) sized for assignment at $380.

IFIf AVGO fails and trades ≤ $378.72 (1-week lower EM) then → establish put_diagonal: buy 2026-07-17 put (DTE 93) and sell 2026-05-01 put (DTE 16) at matched strikes ~370–360.

IFIf AVGO holds ≥ $390 for 2 consecutive sessions then → enter call_diagonal: buy 30–45d call and sell 2–9d call same strike at $390 with dte windows per S2 intents.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot > $404.65 (+2% from here) then → trim short-call leg or roll short calls in calendar/diagonal up one strike (e.g., $400 → $405 expiry 2–9d) to protect upside exposure.

ADJIf short-dated IV (2–9d) rises > +8 vol points from current ~40% then → close/sell long-dated long-call exposure in S2 or widen call diagonal to reduce vega risk.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf AVGO closes < $366.47 (2-week lower bound) then → exit short put credit spreads and calendars; switch to protective long puts (buy 30–64d put) or flatten to avoid gamma bleed.

EXITIf AVGO rallies and closes > $426.97 (2-week upper bound) then → take profits on bullish spreads and tighten short-call hedges; convert part of long calls to bull_call_spread to lock gains.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week bullish bias toward $400 driven by call-heavy flow and NTM GEX pinning; invalidation below $378.72 (1-week EM lower) shifts to defensive posture. Regime favors defined-risk bullishs and calendar/diagonal structures (S2/S6) for participants wanting upside with controlled cost; put credits (S1) offer short-term income while put-diagonals (S4) hedge structural MP drift for larger accounts.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.

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