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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $446.77EOD only

Max Pain

$410.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$13.70

3.1% from close

Price Gap

-36.77

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.15

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

AVGO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with upside magnet toward the $390 pin over the next 2 trading days; Confidence: 7.5/10. Strongest supporting signals: large positive GEX (+$71.5M) concentrated at $390/$380/$400, net premium inflow $114.7M and heavy call premium at $400, and SPY/QQQ strength supporting carry; conflict: max pain trend is lower (near-term MP $360) and spot sits 5.8% above MP which creates asymmetric downside risk if pin fails.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5 from mechanical score; no single imminent catalyst or data omission found requiring override.

Supports: GEX +$71.5M with concentrated pin magnets at $390/$380; Net premium +$114.7M biased call-side; heavy call premium at $400 ($24.1M).
Conflicts: Max pain short-term at $360 and MP trend lower across expirations; spot 5.8% above nearest MP increases pullback risk.

📌GEX pinning concentrated +$13.4M at $390 and +$4.8M at $380 — dealers likely to hedge into spot moves.

🟢Large call premium at $400 ($24.1M) and OI wall at $400 (10,383) caps upside above $400.

⚠️Max pain $360 this week vs spot $380.78 — failure to hold >$372 risks MP-driven sellers.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated: Avg IV 54.4% with ATM near-term IV 36.1–42.6% (front end kink), so vol is High and supports premium selling selectively but short-dated event skew.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large positive GEX (+$71.5M) concentrated near $390/$380/$400 which creates a magnetic effect toward those strikes and compresses realized moves near pins.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: net premium inflow +$114.7M and P/C vol 1.21 point to call-biased institutional flow, but P/C OI 1.09 and some put prints show hedging on downside.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $380.78 sits above nearest MP $360 (short-term) which creates asymmetric pullback risk; dealers likely to lean to sell delta below pin levels.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — GEX pinning and MP trend down persist across multiple expirations (MP falling $360→$310 over expiries) and DEX sizable (+50.3M shares), supporting a 2–4 week neutral-to-slight-bullish range thesis; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary setups.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$369.19$392.37

Dealer pinning at $390 and concentrated GEX at $380/$390 will attract spot; break below $369 invalidates near-term pinning.

Next 1 week

$364.93$396.63

Max pain $360 and EM lower bound $364.93 will attract put buying/seller hedging; sustained move >$396.63 required to shift bias higher.

Next 2 weeks

$352.20$409.35

Upside capped by large call OI/premium at $400; break above $409 requires liquidation of call-heavy positions.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $360 (2026-04-15); $330 (2026-04-17); $360 (2026-04-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $369.19/$392.37; 1w $364.93/$396.63

Support: $370.00 · $360.00 · $352.20

Resistance: $390.00 · $400.00 · $409.35

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,257 (21.2% below spot)

Structural: Structural call OI wall at $400 (10,383 OI) caps upside; long-dated put floor clusters $220–$300 provide deep structural support for very large moves below $300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+71.5M

DEX: +50.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,257 (21.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term positive gamma concentrated at $390 (+$13.4M), $380 (+$4.8M) and $400 (+$4.7M) — dealers will buy dips toward those strikes and sell rallies beyond them; if spot moves -2% (~$373) dealer hedges add buying into the dip; if spot moves +2% (~$388) dealers will sell underlying to hedge but net positive GEX produces magneting back toward pins.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 54.4% vs VIX 18.36 — stock vol materially elevated vs index, supporting selective long vol or hedged buys on directional conviction and selling premium where short-dated IV spikes.

Term structure: Front-end kink: 1d ATM 36.1% then 3–10d ATM 40–43% then 30–45d ATM 43–45% — steepness favors selling very-short-dated vol vs 30–45d where IV is higher.

Skew: Call-heavy premium at $400 creates rich OTM calls; put skew steepens around $350–$370 for short-dates — calendar/diagonal sells of higher-IV leg (longer-dated) into shorter-dated buy show theoretical edge if structured as reverse calendar.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $114.7M call-biased net premium; P/C vol 1.21, P/C OI 1.09

Directional prints: 50.8 put 350 OTM 2026-04-15 — Massive unusual put print: 4/15 $350 put vol 6,292 vs OI 204 (30.8x) — could be buy-to-open protection or structured sale; aligns with hedging/downside insurance. 38.6 put 367.5 OTM 2026-04-15 — 4/15 $367.5 put vol 1,751 vs OI 262 (6.7x) — near-term downside hedges; consistent with mixed flow (some puts bought). 41.8 put 380 OTM 2026-04-17 — 4/17 $380 put vol 1,205 vs OI 220 (5.5x) — short-dated protection at-the-market; more consistent with risk-hedging than directional short.

Unusual: 50.8 put 350 OTM 2026-04-15 — Largest unusual activity: 4/15 $350 put vol spike — likely institutional protection or pin-hedge; implies fat-tail concern near-week. 41.8 put 375 OTM 2026-04-17 — 4/17 $375 put elevated flow (2,433 vol, OI 807) — tactical downside hedging into expiry.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near ~$300 is far away but structural put clusters below $300 increase tail demand if price collapses.

!Short-dated expiry concentration (4/15 MP $360) can cause sharp pin-release moves into next session.

!VIX is low (18.36) which can compress realized vol making short premium risky if macro shocks occur.

!Large concentrated call premium at $400/$420 may force rapid dealer re-hedges and create capped rallies above $400.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy AVGO stock at market $380.78	Asymmetric pullback to MP $360; capital-intensive.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid - GEX positive creates dealer buying into dips reducing trend; better to use defined-risk setups.	Pin-support and call flow make naked short risky.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + Sell 2026-05-01 $400 call	Caps upside at $400 where heavy call OI sits; premium helps buffer to MP $360.
Cash-secured put (CSP)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 $360 put cash-secured	Proximity to weekly MP $360 and put buying; requires willingness to own at $360.
Short vertical put spread	Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 $360/$350 put spread	Gamma flip <$300 and sharp gap down into broken pin can widen losses to max loss; defined risk between strikes.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-24 $390 call	High premium (front IV elevated) and strong call OI near $390-$400; use for tight directional bullish view.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-24 $360/$350 bear put spread	Costs elevated IV; good for directional downside hedge to MP $360.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 $352.5/$332.5P x $400/$420C iron condor (wings aligned to EM bounds and structural walls)	IV spike or gap through wings; short premium benefits from positive GEX and VIX <22.
Calendar / diagonal (reverse calendar)	Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 $380 call (ATM, IV ~43.4%), buy 2026-04-17 $380 call (near-term, IV ~42.3%) — sold longer-dated leg (reverse calendar), sell 43.4% IV, buy 42.3% IV (+1.1 vol-pt edge)	Short longer-dated leg carries term risk; requires active management if move through strike or front IV flips.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2027-01-15 $360 LEAP call, sell 2026-05-01 $420 call (income + long-duration bullish diagonal)	Capital and assignment risk; long-dated vega exposure but benefits from high avg IV.

Top Plays

Short-dated put spread (defined-risk premium)

Sell 2026-04-24 $360/$350 put spread

Leverages positive GEX pin at $360 and near-term MP $360 to collect premium with defined risk under the pin; short-dated IV elevated making credit attractive.

Credit: $0.80-$1.40

Max loss: $9.20

BE: $359.20

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit at 30%–40% of width remaining; cut if spot <$352 or VIX spikes >25.

Traders wanting defined-risk premium with multi-week horizon

Reverse calendar (sell longer-dated, buy front)

Sell 2026-05-15 $380 call, buy 2026-04-17 $380 call (reverse calendar)

Sells the higher-IV longer-dated leg (43.4%) and buys the cheaper front 4/17 leg (~42.3%) to capture term structure where longer-dated IV is rich; aligns with multi-week thesis while keeping short-dated protection.

Credit: $0.60-$1.50

Max loss: Limited to mispricing/assignment risks on the short longer-dated leg

BE: Requires active management; manage if long front leg is assigned.

Mgmt: Close/roll short 5/15 leg if spot >$390 into expiry or if short leg loses >60% of value; otherwise keep to collect carry.

Traders with active management and willingness to roll short longer-dated leg

Iron condor (wider wings into positive GEX)

Sell 2026-05-01 $352.5/$332.5 put spread and sell 2026-05-01 $400/$420 call spread (collect premium, 31d)

Uses positive GEX and heavy call OI at $400 to sell premium with ~31d duration where IV remains elevated; wings sit outside 1-week EM bounds offering margin.

Credit: $2.00-$4.50

Max loss: $17.50

BE: Lower/upper depend on collected credit; manage if spot breaches $352.5 or $400.

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; trim/roll if spot breaches nearest wing by 1–2%.

Accounts seeking income with defined risk and multi-week time horizon

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $370.00 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-24 $360/$350 put spread

IFIf spot rallies to $390.00 and IV compresses front-end by >3 vol-pts → Sell 2026-05-15 $380 call and buy 2026-04-17 $380 call (reverse calendar)

IFIf spot remains between $352.5 and $400.0 into 2026-04-24 open → Initiate 2026-05-01 iron condor 352.5/332.5P x 400/420C

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX >25 and spot <$360.00 → Exit all short premium trades immediately

EXITIf any short spread reaches 60–70% of max profit → Take profit and consider re-establishing farther wings

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week neutral-to-slight-bullish range with dealer pinning toward $390/$380 and downside guard at $360; invalidation below $352.50 (breach of put wing/EM lower bound). Regime favors defined-risk short premium and reverse-calendar sells of the higher-IV longer-dated leg into cheaper front-dated protection; top plays: defined short put spread (sell 4/24 $360/$350), reverse calendar (sell 5/15 $380 buy 4/17 $380), and 31d iron condor (sell 5/01 wings at 352.5/332.5 & 400/420) suited respectively for income-focused, actively-managed, and balanced multi-week accounts.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.

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