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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $446.77EOD only

Max Pain

$410.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$13.70

3.1% from close

Price Gap

-36.77

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.15

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

AVGO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with upside pressure toward the 1-week EM ceiling ~$396.80; confidence base 7.5/10. Strong signals: large positive GEX (+$75.6M) concentrating at $375-$370 (pinning) and heavy call premium flow at $380/$370; conflict: max pain ladder is falling (near-term MPs $360→$345→$330) and spot is 5.5% above short-dated MPs.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5: +GEX pinning +$75.6M, +net premium $162.1M; -spot 5.5% above MP; VIX 19 supports selling premium; no override.

Supports: GEX concentration at $375/$370/$365; heavy call premium at $380/$370; EM upper guardrail 1w $396.80.
Conflicts: Max Pain trend downward ($360→$345→$330); spot 5.5% above nearest MPs ($360/$345) creating mean-reversion risk; mixed flow (P/C vol 1.13) dilutes directional conviction.

📌GEX pinning cluster +$2.4M at $375 (−1.3%): magnet for spot

💨Heavy call premium at $380: net call premium $16.5M — short-gamma tail risk if move up

📉MP ladder falling (360→345→330) — structural pressure to lower strikes over weeks

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol: Avg IV 56.0% vs market VIX 19.1 — options expensive, front-week IV spike (2d ATM 40.3%) favors premium sellers of multi-day exposure but front-day ATM 24.9% shows intraday skew.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large positive GEX +$75.6M concentrated at 375/370/365; dealers will buy spot into weakness and sell into strength within next week, producing mean-reversion around those pins.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: net premium +$162.1M and P/C vol 1.13 show institutional net buy of calls but P/C OI 1.08 is balanced — directional prints concentrated on calls at 370/380.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP (spot $379.75 vs nearest MP $360 on 4/13) → short-term upside but medium-term gravitational pull toward lower MPs; creates asymmetric risk for long directional positions.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations persist across next 2 expirations (4/15, 4/20) and MP trend is progressive over multiple expirations (falling MPs), supporting a 2–4 week horizon; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades, weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$366.81$392.69

Sustained bids and positive delta flow could push into $392.69; failure below $366.81 signals dealer unwind.

Next 1 week

$362.70$396.80

Dealer pinning at $375/$370 keeps spot anchored unless breach of $362.70 or rally above $396.80 driven by sector strength.

Next 2 weeks

$350.30$409.20

MP ladder ($360→$345→$330) and heavy puts in May could pull spot lower absent fresh catalysts; break below $362.70 accelerates move to $350.30.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $360 (2026-04-13); $345 (2026-04-15); $330 (2026-04-17)

EM guardrails: 2d $366.81/$392.69; 1w $362.70/$396.80

Support: $375.00 · $370.00 · $365.00

Resistance: $396.80 · $392.69 · $400.00

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,206 (21.0% below spot)

Structural: Structural call OI wall at $400 acts as major upside cap; put floor concentrated $220–$300 provides drawdown support only in large selloffs.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+75.6M

DEX: +50.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,206 (21.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive near-NTM gamma concentrated at $375 (+$2.4M), $370 (+$889K) and $365 (+$343K) — dealers will buy dips into these pins and cap rallies inside the EM bounds; if spot falls ~2% (~$372) dealers increase delta buys, if spot rises ~2% (~$387) dealers sell into strength and short-delta hedges amplify selling pressure.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 56.0% vs VIX 19.12 — stock-specific IV rich; short-dated ATM shows inversion (0d 24.9% vs 2d 40.3%) signaling front-end event premium and intraday skew.

Term structure: Front-week elevated (2–11d 40–44%), then 18–46d 44–47% — moderately upward sloping beyond 1 week, supports selling near-term premium and buying 30–45d protection.

Skew: Notable cheapening at far wings: calls concentrated at $400 with high OI; mispriced opportunity: sell 2–4d elevated IV (2d ATM 40.3%) and buy 30–45d where IV ~44–47% for calendar/diagonal edges.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $162.1M (net institutional buy of premium biased to calls)

Directional prints: 41.8 call 380 OTM 2026-04-15 — Heavy premium flow at $380 (Call $20.87M / Put $4.37M) — could be buy-to-open calls or call spreads; both fit net call-buy flow but more consistent with directional call buying given mixed P/C OI. 48.2 call 370 ITM 2026-04-15 — Large call premium at $370 (Call $21.58M) — paired with large put flow at lower strikes suggests hedged directional positions or covered call rolls.

Unusual: 51.6 put 355 OTM 2026-04-13 — Massive print: P 4/13 $355 Vol 6,713 vs OI 153 (43.9x) — short-dated protective put interest or aggressive buying of deep front-week vol; could be risk-reversal/minor tail hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip sits near ~$300 — material structural hedging begins below $300 (far below spot).

!MP ladder falling; expiries 4/13–4/17 cluster at $360/$345/$330 can create downward drag into expiry cadence.

!Large call premium concentration at $380/$370 creates short-gamma risk if market gaps up, IV crush or dealer hedging whipsaw on rapid moves.

!Macro: if VIX jumps >25 or XLK reverses, short-premium setups could blow up; watch sector leadership.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at market $379.75	MP trend and rich IV leave stock exposed to mean-reversion toward $360–$350.
Short stock	Weak	Short shares or intra-day fade into $396.80 resistance	Positive GEX pins and dealer buying on dips increase short squeezes.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock and sell 2026-05-01 385 call (sell higher-IV short-dated to collect)	Capped upside at 385; large call flow at 380/385 may compress premium.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 350/340 put spread	MP drift below 350 and concentrated puts at 350 could widen spread losses.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-01 395 call (directional breakout play)	High IV and time decay; heavy call supply at $400 limits upside.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-20 365/355 bear put spread	Dealer positive GEX will dampen downward momentum inside pins; requires MP breakdown to pay.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 365/355P x 395/405C (wings mapped to 1w EM guardrails and $400 OI wall)	IV spike or MP-driven selloff beyond 355 or upside break above 396.80 defeats wings.
Calendar / diagonal	Strong	Sell near-term 2026-04-20 ATM (372.5–375) and buy 2026-05-01 further-dated ATM (sell higher IV leg = near-term if higher) — specific: Sell 4/20 375 call (IV ~42.3), Buy 5/01 375 call (IV ~47.4) — net debit diagonal.	Requires time decay advantage and stability; front-week IV vs 30d higher, buy longer-dated protection.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 100 shares + sell 2026-05-01 395 call or sell longer-dated 2026-07-17 420 call depending on objective	Caps upside; collects rich premium vs elevated IV but cedes gains past strikes.
Protective put (hedge)	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-01 350 put to hedge long exposure	Costly given elevated IV (May ATM ~44.9%).

Top Plays

30–45d Diagonal (primary)

Sell 2026-04-20 375 call, Buy 2026-05-01 375 call

Sell higher-IV short-dated call (4/20 IV ~42.3%) and buy longer 5/01 IV ~44.9% to collect theta while keeping upside convexity; plays to pin at $375 and benefits from front-week decay and slight rally tolerance.

Debit: $0.60-$1.20

Max loss: $100.00

BE: net debit + strike exposure

Mgmt: Take 60% profit if near-term leg decays 70%; cut if spot >$396.80 or IV term collapses.

Traders seeking defined directional with calendar edge

Short Put Spread (tactical overlay)

Sell 2026-04-20 365/355 put spread

Rides dealer pinning at 365/375 with high GEX support; wide short-dated credit with favorable EM 1w lower bound $362.70 as natural support.

Credit: $0.80-$1.50

Max loss: $900.00

BE: $364.20

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit at half-width collected; cut if spot < $362.70 or VIX >25.

Defined-risk premium sellers preferring weeklies

Iron Condor (range sell 1–2 week)

Sell 2026-04-20 365/355P x 395/405C

Uses EM 1w $362.70/$396.80 and $400 call OI wall as natural wings; positive GEX supports range-bound outcome.

Credit: $1.20-$2.50

Max loss: $880.00

BE: short strikes ± collected credit

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit before expiry; widen or roll if move threatens single wing beyond EM bounds.

Accounts with capital for defined-risk two-way income

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $375.00 and holds 30 minutes above $372.50 → Sell 4/20 365/355 put spread

IFIf spot pulls back to $370.00 and IV 7-day ATM >42% → Sell 4/20 370/360 put spread as tactical credit

IFIf spot stalls under $392.69 for 2 sessions → Initiate 4/20 iron condor 365/355P x 395/405C

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot > $396.80 (1w EM upper) → Roll up short calls in diagonals/PMCC to next strikes (e.g., 395/405) or close short premium exposure

ADJIf VIX >25 or IV term inverts front-to-back by >5 vol points → Close short premium positions (put spreads/condors) and switch to long-dated hedges (buy 5/01 puts)

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot < $362.70 (1w EM lower) → Exit short-put spreads and condors immediately

EXITIf short-term leg of diagonal loses >80% value or spot >$396.80 → Take profits on diagonal and reassess longer leg

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealers pinned by positive GEX around $375–$370 create mean-reversion and favor short premium in the 1–4 week window; invalidation is sustained break above $396.80 (upsides) or below $362.70 (downsides). Top plays: 30–45d diagonal (sell 4/20 375 / buy 5/01 375) for theta+protection; short 365/355 put spread (4/20) as tactical; 4/20 iron condor for defined two-way income; suitability varies by capital and directional view.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.