AVGO
Broadcom Inc.Close $414.14EOD onlyThis page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
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You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.
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Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term pin near $350 and upside within the 2d EM to $360; Confidence: 7.0/10. Primary supports: large positive GEX $+62.8M concentrated at $350/$345 (pinning), heavy bullish net premium $208.4M and call flow concentrated at $350/$360, and EM guardrails that keep price inside $340.66–$360.61 for 2d. Conflict: max pain pins at $312–$320 across expiries (12.2% below spot) create structural downside pressure if pin breaks; IV is elevated (ATM 49.5% 2d) which raises cost of directional buys.
Conflicts: Max pain cluster $312–$320 persistent across expirations; spot 12.2% above MP trend; elevated ATM IV (49.5% 2d) increases downside cost for long gamma.
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $+62.8M
DEX: +46.2M shares
Gamma flip: ~$250 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,005 (28.7% below spot))
NTM gamma: Near-term positive gamma concentrated at $350 (+$5.2M), $345 (+$3.7M) and $355 (+$1.6M) — dealers will buy dips and sell into rallies within EM; if spot falls ~-2% (~$343) hedges increase buying, if spot rises ~+2% (~$357) hedges increase selling, both actions create mean-reversion toward $350.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: Avg IV 52.7% and 2d ATM 49.5% — rich relative to general market (VIX context omitted) making long premium expensive, favors premium sellers when gamma supports it.
Term structure: Front-end elevated (2d 49.5% → 30d ~46.3%) with a notable 2d–5d drop; short-dated IV rich due to expiry and pinning so calendar/diagonal can capture term structure tail.
Skew: Skew: short-dated puts at $335–$340 show elevated IV (53–57% prints); mispriced opportunity: sell short-dated spreads (weekly) against overpriced 2–5d puts (e.g., $340/$335) or sell near-term calls into pin given heavy call flow.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: + $208.4M bullish; P/C vol 0.66 indicates call-dominant flow
Directional prints: 50.1 call 350 ITM? 2026-04-10 — Large call premium at $350 Net $34.65M (call-heavy) — could be institutional buy-to-open or dealer sell; consistent with bullish flow and likely buy-to-open given net premium. 46.4 call 360 OTM 2026-04-10 — 6,799 vol at $360 call exp 4/10 — heavy short-dated directional interest; bought calls would press upside toward $360, sold calls would be dealer short gamma reinforcing the pin.
Unusual: 53.5 put 340 OTM 2026-04-10 — AVGO260410P00340000: Vol 2,203 vs OI 203 (10.8x) — large short-dated put flow; could be protective buy or put-selling rotation; given overall call-dominant net premium, interpretation leans to buy-to-open protection (tail hedges).
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long stock | Moderate-Weak | Buy shares at market $350.63 | Downside toward $320–$312 MP and high IV environment for hedges |
| Short stock | Weak | Avoid — pinning and positive GEX make trend fades likely; high dealer buy-back risk | Rapid dealer hedging toward $350 can trigger squeezes |
| Covered call | Moderate | Buy stock + sell 2026-05-01 355 call (sell high IV near-term call) | Call assignment into rally; limited upside beyond 355 |
| Cash-secured put / put spread | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-05-01 325/315 put spread (30–45 DTE core) | Breakdown toward MP $312 — widening losses if gap lower |
| Long calls | Moderate-Weak | Buy 2026-04-24 360 call (time premium to ride continuation) | High cost (IV elevated) and potential vol crush after pin resolves |
| Long puts / bear put spread | Moderate | Buy 2026-04-10 340/335 put spread (weekly tactical hedge) | Expensive short-dated IV; limited by spread width |
| Iron condor | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-05-01 315/305 put spread + sell 355/365 call spread (defined-risk 30–45 DTE condor) | Breakout toward MP $312 or rally above 365; short premium into positive GEX is supported but not bulletproof |
| Calendar / diagonal (sell high-IV leg) | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-04-10 355 call, buy 2026-05-01 355 call (sell 4/10 IV ~48.9%, buy 5/01 IV ~46.3% = +2.6 vol-pt edge) | Front-week pin release can cost if large gap beyond wings |
| PMCC / LEAPS diagonal | Moderate | Buy 2026-07-17 325 LEAP, sell 2026-05-01 355 call (diagonal income, long-term bullish with short-term income) | Requires directional appreciation; roll risk if spot stays elevated |
| Buy-write collar (protective) | Moderate-Strong | Buy stock + sell 2026-05-01 355 call + buy 2026-05-01 315 put (defined risk multi-week) | Cost of put reduces credit; protection to MP levels |
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Tactical Summary
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