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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $414.14EOD only

Max Pain

$420.00

Next expiry May 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$11.88

2.9% from close

Price Gap

+5.86

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.15

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

AVGO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside bias inside a pin near $330–335; Confidence: 7.0/10. Primary supports: large positive GEX $41.3M concentrated at 330/332.5/335 (pin magnet), heavy bullish net premium $444.2M and call-heavy flow at 300/320/330/340; conflict: spot is above max pain (~$312) by ~6.9% which favors mean pullback if pin fails.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 7.0 maintained: +41.3M GEX pinning and +$444.2M net premium drive conviction; downside risk from spot > MP (312) moderates score.

Supports: GEX concentration at $330/$332.5/$335; top premium flow call hubs at $300/$330/$320/$340; net premium +$444.2M.
Conflicts: Spot 333.97 is 6.9% above flat MP ~$312 across expirations; elevated ATM IV (1d 62.5%, 3d 56.2%) adds repricing risk on pin release.

📌GEX pin cluster: +$5.0M at $330, +$3.0M at $335, +$2.4M at $332.5 — strong local magnet

💨Net premium +$444.2M and P/C vol 0.48 — institutional bias into calls

⚠️Max pain anchored ~ $310–$312 across near expiries — pin could unwind quickly if selling overwhelms hedges

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV is High: Avg IV 54.3% with 1d ATM 62.5% and 3d 56.2% — favors premium sellers if pin holds but costly to buy vol for directional exposure near-dated.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: positive GEX +$41.3M concentrated at 330/332.5/335; dealers long gamma near spot so small moves attract hedging flows back toward those strikes.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow: Net premium +$444.2M, heavy call premium at 300/320/330; P/C volume 0.48 indicates call dominance in traded flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $333.97 sits ~6.9% above MP ~$312 — creates a tension: dealer pinning pulls toward 330–335 while structural max pain sits much lower.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations persist across the next several expirations (330/335 GEX and MP flat ~312), and IV term structure remains elevated across 2–6 week expiries — prefer 30–45 DTE with weeklies as tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$325.20$342.75

Break above $342.75 with volume clears near-term call supply; failure back below $325.20 accelerates downside toward MP $312.

Next 1 week

$326.32$341.62

Sustained trade < $326.32 signals pin breakdown and rotation to MP ~$312.

Next 2 weeks

$322.72$345.22

Close > $345.22 on supportive flow removes short-gamma dealer headwind; close < $322.72 risks trending move toward put floor $220–300.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $312 (2026-04-08); $310 (2026-04-10); $310 (2026-04-13)

EM guardrails: 2d $325.20/$342.75; 1w $326.32/$341.62

Support: $325.00 · $320.00 · $312.50

Resistance: $335.00 · $342.75 · $350.00

Gamma flip: ~$250.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,107 (25.1% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall at $360–$390 caps multi-month upside; put floor $220–$300 provides deep structural support and limits long-term downside.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+41.3M

DEX: +43.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$250 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,107 (25.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive near-the-money gamma concentrated at $330 (+$5.0M), $335 (+$3.0M) and $332.5 (+$2.4M) — dealers will buy dips and sell rallies within that band; if spot moves -2% (~$327) dealers buy stock/hedge, if +2% (~$341) dealers sell hedges which mutes rallies but keeps spot near pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is high (Avg IV 54.3%) relative to typical equity levels — not extreme vs 1d/3d term but elevated for selling premium with event risk.

Term structure: Front-loaded: 1d ATM 62.5% → 3d 56.2% → 6–13d ~51–52% then flattens ~48–51% across 3–10 weeks; shows concentrated near-dated event pricing.

Skew: Skew compressed on upside calls due to heavy buying; mispriced vol pick: short-dated calls 4/08 (330/332.5/335) are rich (IV 62–66%) — consider selling premium if you accept pin risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $444.2M bullish; call-heavy flow concentrated at 300/320/330/340.

Directional prints: 60.8 call 340 OTM 2026-04-08 — Heavy 4/08 flow (Vol 6,080 vs OI 160 — 38x) suggests buyer-initiated calls into expiry; could be directional buy or long gamma trade; interpretation consistent with broad bullish net premium (buy calls). 62.6 call 335 OTM 2026-04-08 — 4/08 335C (Vol 5,966 / OI 167) — large short-dated call prints clustered at pin; likely aggressive call buys or structures, aligns with dealer pinning.

Unusual: 65.1 call 330 ITM 2026-04-08 — 4/08 330C (Vol 12,114 / OI 1,118) — biggest short-dated print and OI ramp; strongest unusual activity and primary driver of near-term pin.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip sits near ~$250 — large non-linear downside beyond that but remote near-term;

!Near-dated expiry cluster 2026-04-08/10: concentrated call flow could unwind violently if sellers step in

!High short-dated IV (1d 62.5%) — buying protection is costly; IV crush possible if pin resolves and flow subsides

!Spot > MP (~$312) — if macro selling overlaps with pin release, expect fast move toward MP

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy AVGO 100 shares at market	Pin may pull toward $330–$312; capital intensive and large drawdown risk.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid naked short given strong dealer delta soak and positive GEX	Dealers buy dips; high risk of short-squeeze into pin.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-04-24 345C (sell higher-term call to collect premium)	Limited upside due to call OI wall and potential stock drop to MP.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 320/305 put spread (sell 320, buy 305)	Gamma flip and MP ~312 can push value above max loss if pin breaks.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-08 340C or 335C as tactical directional; expensive (IV 60–66%)	High theta and IV will decay/crush; costly if move stalls.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-24 325/305 bear put spread (buy 325, sell 305)	Costly if pin holds; better as hedge for large downside.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 320/305 put spread + sell 345/360 call spread (defined risk)	IV crush reduces premium; large breakouts beyond EM hurt wings.
Calendar/diagonal (sell high-IV near-dated)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-08 332.5C (IV ~63.6) buy 2026-05-08 332.5C (IV ~49.9) — sell higher-IV front leg, vol diff ~13.7 pts	Front leg may move ITM and require adjustment; gamma on front leg large.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-07-17 360C (collect premium) and roll to 2026-11/2027 if needed	Calls collected may be assigned if strong rally; margin and long stock capital required.
Short premium (near-dated call sell)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-08 335C or 332.5C (short-dated premium rich IV 62–66%) as tactical short premium	High gamma into 4/08; requires active management if move >EM.

Top Plays

Short-dated Call Sell (tactical)

Sell 2026-04-08 332.5C

Leverages concentrated GEX pin at 332.5/330/335 and heavy short-dated call prints — selling rich IV (≈63%) into expiry; dealers expected to damp rallies.

Credit: $4.50-$7.00

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit if premium halves; buy back and roll if spot > $342.75 or IV spikes above 75%.

Traders who can actively manage short-gamma into expiry

30–45 DTE Iron Condor (defined risk)

Sell 2026-04-24 320/305 put spread + sell 345/360 call spread

Collects elevated multi-week IV with positive GEX pin expected to keep spot between 320–345; defined risk suits multi-week thesis.

Credit: $2.25-$3.75

Max loss: $15000.00

BE: Lower breakeven ~317.75 / Upper ~348.25

Mgmt: Take profit at 40–60% of max credit; cut if spot < $312 or > $350 or VIX spikes > +8 pts.

Accounts wanting defined-risk premium collection with 30–45 DTE

Calendar (sell rich near-dated, buy longer)

Sell 2026-04-08 330C buy 2026-05-08 330C (sell high IV 4/08 65% vs buy 5/08 ~49.9%)

Exploits ~15 vol-pt front-vs-back spread; front leg rich due to concentrated flow and pinning, longer leg gives theta hedge and roll optionality.

Credit: $1.50-$3.00

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Buy back near-dated leg if spot > $342.75 or if front-leg IV > 75%; take 50% profit on calendar spread value.

Traders preferring limited margin directional with vol decay capture

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $332.50 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-08 332.5C

IFIf spot trades $325.00 and bounces within 60 minutes → Sell 2026-04-24 320/305 put spread

IFIf spot settles between $330–$335 into close with net call flow > $10M next hour → Initiate short 4/08 335C or 332.5C (choose better spread)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot > $342.75 or IV front-leg rises >+10 vol-pts → Buy back short 4/08 calls and roll to 4/15 or 4/24 longer-dated call sell leg

ADJIf spot < $320 and holds for 2 consecutive 30-min bars → Hedge short premium by buying 320/305 protection (buy puts) or reduce short condor size

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX equivalent for AVGO (1d ATM IV) > 75% → Exit all short-dated premium

EXITIf spot < $312.50 (MP) → Close short premium; consider switching to directional puts/put spreads

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealer pinning and heavy call flow support range-bound to slight upside between $320–$345; invalidation <$312.50 (max pain) or sustained close > $345.22. Regime favors shorting rich near-dated calls and defined-risk multi-week iron condors; top plays: short 4/08 332.5C (tactical), 4/24 iron condor 320/305/345/360 (multi-week), 4/08->5/08 330C calendar (front-vs-back vol capture).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.

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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.