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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1762.77EOD only
Max Pain
$1780.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$79.60
4.5% from close
Price Gap
+17.23
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
1.29
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
ASML Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Put credit spreads at support levels
Invalidation: Break below $1700 gamma flip or above $2000 call wall
Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV (63.7%) well above VIX (18.9), highly favorable for premium sellers
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Near-term IV (50-52%) lower than longer-term, but a spike to 60% at 22d suggests event risk; contango present but uneven

📈IV at 63.7% vs VIX 18.9 offers high premium yield
⚠️Event risk at 22d expiration creates volatility uncertainty

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+2.6M)

Gamma flip: ~$1700.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,417 (7.7% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI dominates (ratio 1.30), with heavy concentration at $1700 and below; call OI walls at $2000-$2100

Verdict: Moderate pin risk: spot above max pain ($1775) with positive dealer gamma, potential drift toward $1775

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $1720.00/$1700.00 put spread
Sell put spread at support to capture elevated premium.
Credit: $5.53-$6.76
Max loss: $13.24
BE: $1713.24
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $1700.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $1720.00/$1700.00 put wing and $2020.00/$2040.00 call wing
Collect premium from high IV in a range.
Credit: $10.03-$12.26
Max loss: $7.74
BE: 1707.74 / 2032.26
Mgmt: Close if spot nears wings. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.

Risk Alerts

!Event risk on 2026-07-17 (22d) expiration with IV spike
!High IV may compress rapidly if volatility subsides
!Gamma flip at $1700; break could accelerate downside
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.